Everyone is confronted with tough decisions week in and week out. Those who make the right decisions on who to start and who to bench will win. Outsiders often attribute the ability to make the right decision to luck. It can be the case, but skilled owners make far more right choices than wrong. Makes sense, right? Below is my way of making those tough decisions a little bit easier.
QUARTERBACKS
Jake Plummer, Broncos (YES!): I admit things got a little ugly for my pick last week once New England got a lead. However, the Broncos will be at home, and Plummer torched the Patriots in their first matchup this year.
Jake Delhomme, Panthers (NO!): For the second playoff week in a row, there are lots of guys to avoid because just about everyone in the playoffs plays stellar defense. However, the Bears just might be the staunchest remaining team, and they held the Panthers to three points during the regular season.
RUNNING BACKS
Corey Dillon, Patriots (YES!): Like a lot of media, both the fantasy football establishment and the sports talk community are rather reactionary. My guess is that way too much has been made of Dillon’s alleged “benching” last week, and Bill Belichick probably loves it. The truth is that it made perfect sense to pass on the Jaguars last week, which meant a lot of Kevin Faulk. I think the Pats surprise everybody by going back to Dillon Saturday night.
Jerome Bettis, Steelers (NO!): The Bus has had quite a run into the sunset down the stretch this year, wearing teams down and providing carries around the goal line. While the Steelers may put up more of a fight this time around against the Colts, chances are that this game on turf will either get out of hand in favor of the Colts or involve a lot of Fast Willie Parker.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Steve Smith, Panthers (YES!): Normally, starting the highest scoring receiver in the league would seem fairly obvious. However, the Bears were the toughest team in the league to throw against, allowing only 10 touchdowns all year (the next best team allowed 15). And they managed 24 interceptions on top of that. So why the optimism about Smith? Because the Bears held the Panthers to three points during the regular season despite allowing Smith to operate freely underneath, resulting in 14 catches. Smith may not get in the end zone, but he’ll catch a lot of passes Sunday.
Santana Moss, Redskins (NO!): Moss was the premier deep threat in the league last year, but his quarterback may not have the arm to get it to him right now.
TIGHT ENDS
Ben Watson, Patriots (YES!): Last week, I picked him saying: “He’s not flashy, but he’s produced consistent points in the second half.” Then he gives us a flashy game. Don’t expect the same fireworks, but expect at least four points from him.
Bryan Fletcher, Colts (NO!): One common strategy in post-season fantasy is to go with the guys on the teams most likely to win. Don’t extend that to Fletcher.
KICKERS
Jason Elam, Broncos (YES!): The Broncos might lose to the Patriots, but this probably won’t be a low scoring game.
John Kasay, Panthers (NO!): He scored the most points this year of the playoff kickers in most formats, but the Panthers will struggle for points in this one.
DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS
Carolina Panthers (YES!): Led the NFC in turnovers, and the Bears are surpisingly turnover prone given their conservative approach.
New England Patriots (NO!): I was wrong about this last week, but again this features the Patriots, who forced the second fewest turnovers in the AFC, against the Broncos, who tied for the fewest giveaways.