Everyone is confronted with tough decisions week in and week out. Those who make the right decisions on who to start and who to bench will win. Outsiders often attribute the ability to make the right decision to luck. It can be the case, but skilled owners make far more right choices than wrong. Makes sense, right? Below is my way of making those tough decisions a little bit easier.
QUARTERBACKS
Byron Leftwich, Jaguars (YES!): While all of the games this week look unusually competitive for the postseason, chances are that there won’t be a lot of pass offense. Leftwich is only a good choice because the Patriots are by far the worst pass defense in the playoffs. In fact, only San Francisco is clearly worse among the non-playoff teams. So while the Jaguars will play it close to the vest in the cold in Foxboro, they’re still more likely to have success through the air (and avoid turnovers) than anyone else this week.
Mark Brunell, Redskins (NO!): The first time these two teams played, it appears that both coaching staffs just presumed they’d be able to stop the other team and focused on figuring out how to score points. Given that these two teams tied for second in the league in fewest passing touchdowns allowed, my guess is that won’t happen again.
RUNNING BACKS
Willie Parker, Steelers (YES!): The Bengals are likely to get a heavy dose of the Bus, too, but the Steelers will establish the run in order to avoid the shootout they got into the last time, and Parker will be the primary ball carrier.
Corey Dillon, Patriots (NO!): The Jaguars were a little more vulnerable against the run this year, but they were still the toughest team in the league to score a rushing touchdown against. This should be the lowest of a number of low scoring games this weekend.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Hines Ward, Steelers (YES!): The Bengals are tough on quarterbacks because they force so many interceptions. However, the yardage they allow makes them an excellent opponent for your wide receivers.
Plaxico Burress, Giants (NO!): He’s been a real feast or famine guy this year, and over the last five weeks it’s been mainly famine. With his quarterback struggling against a tough pass defense in the cold, there are better alternatives.
TIGHT ENDS
Ben Watson, Patriots (YES!): He’s not flashy, but he’s produced consistent points in the second half.
Alex Smith, Bucs (NO!): He’s the opposite of Watson. He lacks week to week upside, and he’s inconsistent. Both of his touchdowns were opening day.
KICKERS
Jay Feely, Giants (YES!): Don’t overthink this. He’s the best kicker playing this week.
Adam Vinatieri, Patriots (NO!): He’s a great clutch kicker who will be playing in a high pressure game. But even a game winning field goal is only worth three points.
DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS
Carolina Panthers (YES!): I suspect Eli Manning will makes some mistakes in this one, and the Panthers led the NFC in takeaways.
New England Patriots (NO!): The Patriots forced the second fewest turnovers in the AFC, while the Jags were the least likely team to turn it over. That’s a bad combination.