In all my years of playing fantasy sports, I feel that I have done a very consistently good job of separating team allegiances as a fan with the business of trying to field the best fantasy squad each week.
Yet when living in the Twin Cities area for much of the decade of the 1980s, I did establish a bit of a soft spot for the hometown Minnesota Vikings, a bond my oldest son maintains to this day.
It was with mild interest then that I noted the departure of running back Mewelde Moore from the frozen turf, er… artificially-turfed dome of Minnesota to the Pittsburgh Steelers for the 2008 season.
The man I affectionately tabbed “Moldy” seemed destined to remain a footnote in the Steel City, stuck in the depth chart behind functional but non-flashy Willie Parker and the prince-in-waiting, Rashard Mendenhall.
The latter, despite rookie status, was one of the hottest names to know and grab in the preseason. (I personally like “Moldy” better than “MeMo”, which elicits comparisons to an animated clownfish, but maybe that’s just me.)
On draft day, Moore sat on the pines, just as he was projected to do all season long. Despite a case of fumbleitis during the preseason, Mendenhall, the Steelers’ first-rounder from Illinois, was set to back up Parker and return kicks to maximize his playing time.
The injury fates changed all that. Here is a short chronology of the Steelers’ running back situation this season:
Week One: Mendenhall relieves Parker and gets ten rushes in the second half with the Steelers up big.
Week Two: Parker is dominant, leading the entire NFL in rushing attempts through two weeks and posting two 100-yard games in the process. Mendenhall does not take a single snap with the offense.
Week Three: Parker rushes for just 20 yards in 13 carries and suffers a knee injury to boot. The initial prognosis is that Fast Willie will miss two games and the Week Six bye. To date, despite being the third-down back, Moore is only blocking. He has a grand total of one touch on offense through three games.
Week Four: In a text message to his buddy Ray Rice, Mendenhall promises a big game against the Ravens. Bad idea, rook. He receives his first start but doesn’t last long. After gaining 36 yards on ten touches, Mendenhall suffers a fractured left shoulder that ends his season.
Week Five: Moore delivers 116 yards of offense in what is likely his only start.
Week Six (bye): Parker is back participating in practice during the Steelers’ bye week, and all indications are that he will resume his heavy workload starting in Week Seven, as expected.
Why am I going through all this? To set up an important point, of course.
In a league like the NFFC with no trading, the waiver wire is the only way to improve one’s team. Knowing which positions need help on your roster and making intelligent speculative bids on potentially-emerging players at those positions is a must if you want to win.
So, how did the 304 teams across the 22 NFFC Classic main event leagues play the Steelers’ running back situation?
Draft day: Parker had an average draft position of 45, or Round Three, pick 3. Mendenhall’s ADP was 91, putting him in the middle of Round Six as owners hyperventilated over the hype. Obviously, both players were taken in every league. 353 unique players/defenses were chosen across the 22 drafts. Moore was universally ignored.
Prior to Week Three: Despite Mendenhall’s Week Two disappearing act, there were no changes to the Pittsburgh backs on the waiver wire. Everyone was holding.
Prior to Week Four: Ten owners across the 22 leagues took a flier on Moore, now second-string behind Mendenhall. They paid from $1 (three times) up to $102, with an average price of $34.
These owners were not desperate. They were looking ahead. Six of the ten had winning records and two were 3-0 at the time.
Week Four: Of the ten Moore owners, only three started him. Two of them won, though Moore contributed just 6.1 points. Interestingly, none of the three teams that paid the most for Moore played him. Overall, the ten Moore teams went 7-3.
Prior to Week Five: Not surprisingly, with the Mendenhall news breaking, Moore was picked up in the other 12 leagues. Just seven eventful days later, his average price increased almost ten-fold, to $334.
In other words, a dozen teams spent an average of one-third of their entire season’s FAAB budget on a one-week starting running back that they could have grabbed a week before for $300 less. Winning bids ranged from $181 all the way up to $512. Four teams dropped $400 or more.
Week Five: Here’s where it gets even more interesting. Remember that Moore was only assured of starting this one week. Despite that, two of the 12 new Moore buyers, ones that just spent $479 and $326 respectively on him, benched the Steelers’ starter in Week 5. One of the two somehow managed to win, anyway.
What were they thinking?
Of the ten pre-Week Four Moore buyers, two of the three that benched him in Week Five did so for the second consecutive week. They still both won in each of the two weeks and most importantly, had spent only $7 and $1 on Moore in the first place. Clearly to those teams, he was a low-cost insurance policy, not someone to soak up a third of their FAAB budget.
That’s the way to do it. Anticipate.
In another example of wasted roster spots and slow-acting owners, only 18 of the 22 Mendenhall teams gave him the boot prior to Week Five. Four other owners were apparently content to waste a precious roster spot on a player out for the season.
That’s not the way to do it. Bid a dollar on someone, anyone that still has a fantasy pulse.
Overall in Week Five, 17 of the 22 owning teams started Moore. They went 10-7 (.588). Those that sat him went 3-2 (.600). In other words, he didn’t seem to make all that much of a difference, despite scoring 13.1 points for the owners that played him.
Over the two weeks combined, teams that started Moore went 12-8 (.600). Those that owned him but sat him out posted an 8-4 mark (.667).
Those that selected Moore early improved their season win rate over the two subsequent weeks by 20 points, from .600 to .620. Those that waited to buy him when the price went up actually lost ground in their one week with Moore despite that being his one start and highest-scoring week. Those entries dropped from an aggregate .625 winning mark to .612 on the season.
Conclusion: Kudos to the ten teams that picked up Moore prior to Week Four. It is likely not a coincidence they are winners, and getting better along the way.
Brian Walton’s work can also be seen daily at stlcardinals.scout.com.