I was having some trouble figuring out what subject I wanted to cover this week. I know you’re saying “it’s only your third column and you’re already out of ideas?” To that, I say shush! Don’t tell the bosses! To spark an idea, I was perusing some of the statistics on Pro Football Reference. I focused on backs with the idea I could maybe write about dreaded running back’s by committee (RBBC). Then I looked at passing stats, thinking I could talk about the drastic increased passing yards and touchdowns across the league. Then I made myself a snack. I get hungry. Sue me! But then I focused and decided to combine my two thoughts. RBBC’s and increased passing stats have completely changed the fantasy football landscape. Let’s see why that is and what to do with that knowledge.

Quarterbacks

Without looking it up, how many of the top 20 quarterbacks all time in passer rating are active players? When I first pondered that question, I thought maybe five. I knew Kurt Warner was near the top of the list. I assumed Brady and Manning were in there. Throw in a couple random players and five seemed like a good guess. It turns out I was off by quite a bit. Try 16. That’s not a typo. There are literally four quarterbacks in the history of the NFL that have passer ratings in the top 20 that aren’t going to put on a jersey come early September. (Steve Young, Joe Montana, Dan Marino and, of all people, Otto Graham)

Clearly, the game has changed. Part of it had to do with offensive philosophies. The famous St. Louis Rams “Greatest Show on Turf” teams demonstrated that spreading defenses out allowed for the passing game to take off. Mike Martz was the offensive coordinator, and then coach, of those teams and he proved that protecting the quarterback and running the football were totally overrated. That offense produced Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger, both of whom are on the top 20 passer rating list.

The other change, of course, came when the NFL refocused on the “five yard bump rule,” which made it basically impossible for defensive backs to impede wide outs. Smaller receivers such as, say, Marvin Harrison and Wes Welker benefitted immensely from the change. Even Drew Bennett and Joey Galloway have put up 1,200 yards seasons since 2004. Lord knows they’d be lucky to get half of that back when defensive backs were allowed to mug, er, “bump” the wide outs past five yards.

Running Backs

So I looked at every running back situation and put the RBBC’s into three catagories. The first is “Clear Cut RBBC” which just means the situation is well defined and we know what to expect. The second group are “Speculative RBBC’s” which means they could become straight committee’s or end up featuring one back heavily. The final group are “FUBAR RBBC’s” which, well, should be pretty self explanatory.

Each group listed has the players assumed to be part of the committee in parentheses and then the players involved in committees from the previous year along with their stats. (carries - yards - touchdowns)

Clear Cut RBBC

Jacksonville (Taylor + Jones-Drew)
Fred Taylor - 223 - 1202 - 5
Maurice Jones-Drew - 167 - 768 - 9

Tennessee (White + C. Johnson)
LenDale White 303 - 1110 - 7
Chris Brown 102 - 462 - 5


Speculative RBBC’s

Carolina (Williams + Stewart)
DeShaun Foster 247 - 876 - 3
DeAngelo Williams 144 - 717 - 4

Dallas (Barber + F. Jones)
Marion Barber 204 - 975 - 10
Julius Jones 164 - 588 - 2

Minnesota (Peterson + Taylor)
Adrian Peterson 238 - 1341 - 12
Chester Taylor 157 - 844 - 7

Pittsburgh (Parker + Mendenhall)
Willie Parker 321 - 1316 - 2
Najeh Davenport 107 - 499 - 5


FUBAR RBBC’s

Detroit (Smith + Bell)
Kevin Jones - 154 - 581 - 8
TJ Duckett 65 - 335 - 3
Tatum bell 44 - 182 - 1

Houston (Slaton + C. Brown + Walker)
Ron Dayne 194 - 773 - 6
Ahman Green - 70 - 260 - 2
Darius Walker - 58 - 264 - 1

Oakland (McFadden + Fargas + Bush + Jordan)
Justin Fargas 222 - 1009 - 4
LaMont Jordan 144 - 549 - 3

Obviously, situations can change with injuries and performance. But initially, it does seem as though more than 20 backs could be fantasy contributors, but are hampered with competition for touches. Only six backs managed more than 300 carries last season. That’s not quite enough of a sample size to make it a trend, but savvy fantasy owners will adapt now incase it is one.

CONCLUSION

So, first of all, if you do an auction draft, while this is good to know, it shouldn’t change strategy all that much. You spend money on value. Know the value, know the price. That stays the same. Those in snake drafts, (seriously, try auctions, they are fun) however, will need to take heed: Forget grabbing two backs unless you see two quality 300 carry guys available for you. To me, I see six definite runners that fit that bill. Outside of those six, I’d rather go with a passer or wide out. Why? Because the passing games, as we established, are off the hizzook. Did I do that right? Probably not, but the point remains. The middle rounds tend to be loaded with high potential backs.

It might be hard to fathom, but guys like DeAngelo Williams and Matt Forte, who are being selected in rounds six and seven respectively in 12 team leagues, and they have just as much chance to be fantasy factors as Larry Johnson and Reggie Bush, (non PPR) who are both going in the second round. Obviously, it’s not as safe, but the difference isn’t worth five rounds.

The drafts I’ve been most happy with this preseason end with me taking one quarterback, one runner, and one wide out in the first three rounds. Then I focus on high-ceiling sleeper backs, such as Williams and Forte while plugging in the other positions. Here’s an example from a 12 team mock that was done a few months ago.

QB - Drew Brees (3)
RB - Marshawn Lynch (1)
RB - Selvin Young (9 - took Henry in round five before the cut happened)
WR - Braylon Edwards (2)
WR - Anquan Boldin (4)
FLEX - DeAngelo Williams (6)
TE - Heath Miller (14)
K - Phil Dawson (15)
DEF - Green Bay (12)

BENCH - Matt Leinart (11), Matt Forte (7), Chester Taylor (8), Donte Stallworth (10), Early Doucet (13)

All players were taken around or before their ADP, so it’s definitely a team that can be put together. Now, don’t let me down, faithful readers. I expect all of you to win. And then pay me.