At Week 9 of an NFL season, it’s debatable if there’s ever been as good a game as we have coming this Sunday. Two teams without a blemish have never faced off this late in the season in league history. It’s a faceoff between probably the top two players in the game too; definitely the top-two QBs.
The Indianapolis Colts (7-0) host the New England Patriots (8-0) this Sunday at 4:15pm ET. Tom Brady (30 TD, 2 INT) is the heavy favorite for MVP honors this young season and also owns three Super Bowl rings. Peyton Manning has two MVPs and quarterbacks the defending champs. (question: what other two active players have won multiple MVP awards?) answer at end of column.
After this week, only one team will remain in a quest for perfection. The Pats have been getting most of the headlines with their impressive offense (averaging league-record 41.3 PPG), but Manning started the 2005 season with a 14-0 record. He got off to a 9-0 start last season. Could this be the year he runs the table? Or will Brady continue building his legend? He has a 30-2 TD-INT ratio and gets to go home to Gisele Bunchen at night.
Stay tuned...
The Weekly Forecast will get you prepared for Week 9 of the NFL season. Marvin Harrison remains a game-time call, the Jets and Raiders have new quarterbacks, some suspension news for THREE players with the last name of Henry and EVERYTHING you need to know on the injury front.
Quarterbacks
The Jets will begin the Kellen Clemens era this week, as Chad Pennington will move to the clipboard role. The Jets have stumbled out to a 1-7 start so it just makes sense to give the kid a chance. Unfortunately, he’ll likely be without Laveranues Coles for the matchup. In his stead, WR Brad Smith will likely get the starting nod across from Jerricho Cotchery. Click on this link to check out Clemens lone professional start.
Josh McCown will take over the QB duties for the Raiders this week against Houston. Daunte Culpepper will return to the backup role. At 2-5, if the Raiders drop this week’s contest we could see JaMarcus Russell behind center by the end of November – he’s a must-own in dynasty leagues. Justin Fargas will also like cut into LaMont Jordan’s playing time at RB.
Injury List
David Carr (back) – expected to start this week
Trent Edwards (wrist) – doubtful, J.P. Losman will start
David Garrard (ankle) – out, might return in Week 10, Quinn Gray will start
Kelly Holcomb (neck) – out
Tarvaris Jackson (groin) – will start, Brooks Bollinger is backup
Byron Leftwich (ankle) – out 1-3 more weeks, Joey Harrington will start
J.P. Losman (knee) – will start this week
Josh McCown (foot) – will start, Daunte Culpepper will be backup
Steve McNair (back) – will return this week, should see majority of time with Kyle Boller the backup
Matt Schaub (hip, concussion) – out, Sage Rosenfels will start
Alex Smith (shoulder) – expected to start
Vinny Testaverde (Achilles’) – questionable, likely will not play
Kurt Warner (elbow) – will start vs TB (No. 3 vs the pass)
Running Backs
Travis Henry got his appeal for his substance abuse pushed back from Nov. 5 to Nov. 16. That means he’ll likely be active for Week 10 and possibly even a few more games afterwards. Selvin Young is still worth holding on to though because of his upside. Speaking of Henry’s, Chris Henry, RB TEN will likely be facing a four-game suspension too now. He’s expected to still play this week, but could start serving it as early as next week. After emerging the past couple weeks, this news is a like a nice present under the Christmas tree for Chris Brown – who should reclaim a prominent role in the backfield in Week 10.
Rudi Johnson will return to the Bengals backfield this week and is expected to share carries with Kenny Watson. This news makes both somewhat risky options, but definitely still worth rolling the dice on. My personal opinion is Rudi will get more goal-line touches, while Watson will be more of a receiving option. Whoever has the hot hand will get the brunt of the action. In other words, start 'em both.
FYI - there's been talk that New England is trying to entice Corey Dillon to come out of retirement. If he does, he could be a nice goal-line option - be on the lookout.
The Packers started DeShawn Wynn at RB on Monday Night Football vs Denver. He was expected to get extensive time in the backfield too. However, on the first place of the game with a shoulder injury and is now out for the remainder of the season. In his place, Ryan Grant came in and had 22 carries for 104 yards. He will start vs K.C. this week, but don’t expect as good of a performance. Denver ranked dead last against the rush, while K.C. has surrendered just three rushing TDs all year.
Injury List
Chris Brown (ankle) – questionable, likely out for straight
Michael Bush (leg) – taken off PUP, questionable for Week 9
Frank Gore (ankle) – game-time decision, Michael Robinson and Maurice Hicks will compete for carries if he cannot go
Ahman Green (knee) – probable, might share time with Ron Dayne and Adimchinobe Echemandu
Chris Henry (TEN) – expected to play in Week 10, but facing a four-game suspension
Travis Henry (ribs) – will start, Selvin Young will backup
Steven Jackson (groin) – bye, expected to play in Week 10
Rudi Johnson (hamstring) – expected to compete for touches with Kenny Watson
Jamal Lewis (foot) – will play, Jason Wright is backup
Sammie Morris (chest) – out for the season
Chris Perry (ankle) – out indefinitely
Michael Pittman (leg) – might return in Week 11
Derrick Ward (ankle) – bye, questionable for Week 10
Kenny Watson (concussion) – expected to compete with Rudi Johnson
LenDale White (toe) – probable, Chris Henry would start if he can’t go
Ricky Williams (suspension) – applying for reinstatement
DeShawn Wynn (shoulder) – out for the season, Ryan Grant will start
Wide Receivers
Marvin Harrison remains questionable for the big matchup with Indy. He’s been cleared by the Indianapolis medical staff, but is definitely still hurting with his knee injury. He’ll do everything in his power to suit up for the big game with N.E. – it’s a 4:15pm ET start though so be on the lookout for news on Sunday morning/afternoon. Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai would benefit with Harrison’s absence.
Deion Branch sat out his third straight practice on Friday and could very likely miss another game. He’s being called 50/50 for the contest – with a 4 p.m. ET start, that makes him a very risky fantasy option. Bobby Engram, Nate Burleson and D.J. Hackett will all share time at WR. Cleveland has a lot of shootouts, so they are all worth considering for your WR3/flex option (Engram is probably the most reliable). … Andre Johnson, HOU and Laveranues Coles, NYJ are each supposed to sit out the contest.
If you need help at receiver, this is your last chance to pick up WR Chris Henry, CIN. When he returns, he’ll likely replace WR Glenn Holt as the slot option. Last season, he scored an impressive nine TD in just 13 games. Carson Palmer spreads the wealth, even with Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh.
Injury List
Jason Avant (groin) – questionable, game-time decision
Deion Branch (foot) – questionable, game-time decision
Troy Brown (knee surgery) – return uncertain
Reggie Bush (abdomen) – probable, will start
Michael Clayton (ankle) – might return in Week 11
Laveranues Coles (concussion) – not expected to play, Brad Smith would replace
Ronald Curry (foot) – questionable, expected to play
Terry Glenn (knee surgery) – out indefinitely
D.J. Hackett (ankle) – questionable
Marvin Harrison (knee) – doubtful, game-time decision
Chris Henry (CIN) (suspension) – will return in Week 10
Ike Hilliard (calf) – questionable, expected to play
Andre Johnson (knee) – out, likely sidelined until week 11
Calvin Johnson (back) – probable, expected to play
Eddie Kennison (hamstring) – questionable, might return this week
Koren Robinson (suspension) – reinstated, expected back soon
Rod Smith (hip) – out for the season
Steve Smith (NYG) – doubtful, likely won’t play
David Tyree (wrist) – not expected to play
Bobby Wade (knee) – questionable, Sidney Rice would replace
Javon Walker (knee) – out, might return in Week 12?
Troy Williamson (personal) – expected to miss Week 9
Tight Ends
Todd Heap was “very limited” at practice on Friday and could miss his essentially his fourth straight contest. Daniel Wilcox will also sit out the game, so we could very likely see Quinn Sypniewski getting the brunt of time at the position. Heap will be a game-time call on Monday Night Football making him a serious gamble from a fantasy standpoint.
Alge Crumpler could miss his second straight contest because of knee and ankle injuries. He won’t need surgery, but is expected to be a game-time call for the contest. The Falcons offensive captain has three catches for 13 yards since Week 4, so it’s worth dropping him if you need a replacement this week and don’t want to part with your WRs, RBs or QBs.
Injury List
Chris Baker (back) – questionable, status uncertain
Alge Crumpler (knee) – questionable, expected to return
Owen Daniels (ankle) – questionable, expected to start
Bubba Franks (knee) – likely out this week, Donald Lee has been producing in his place
Todd Heap (hamstring) – questionable, game-time decision
David Martin (ankle) – questionable, Justin Peelle would replace
Marcus Pollard (knee surgery) – out indefinitely
Alex Smith (ankle) – questionable, Jerramy Stevens would replace
Ben Watson (ankle) – not expected to play, Kyle Brady would replace
Daniel Wilcox (ankle) – out, Quinn Sypniewski will replace at TE
Matchups for Week 9
Toughest against the pass
1. Indianapolis (165.4 YPG) – Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker
2. Tampa Bay (173.1 YPG) – Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald
3. Oakland (178.7 YPG) – Sage Rosenfels, Kevin Walter, Andre Davis
4. Pittsburgh (179.1 YPG) – Steve McNair, Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton
5. New England (181.5 YPG) – Payton Manning, Marvin Harrison (questionable)/Anthony Gonzalez, Reggie Wayne
Easiest against the pass
32. Minnesota (288.3 YPG) – Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, Chris Chambers
31. Cleveland (270.7 YPG) – Matt Hasselbeck, Deion Branch (questionable)/Bobby Engram, D.J. Hackett (questionable)/Nate Burleson
30. Detroit (258.3 YPG) – Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Brandon Stokley
29. Buffalo (253.4 YPG) – Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh
28. Cincinnati (246.4 YPG) – J.P. Losman, Lee Evans, Josh Reed
Toughest against the run
1. Tennessee (64.3 YPG) – DeShaun Foster, DeAngelo Williams
2. Baltimore (71.9 YPG) – Willie Parker, Najeh Davenport
3. Minnesota (74.4 YPG) – LaDainian Tomlinson, Michael Turner
4. Pittsburgh (77.7 YPG) – Willis McGahee, Musa Smith
5T. Dallas (87.0 YPG) – Brian Westbrook, Correll Buckhalter
5T. New England (87.0 YPG) – Joseph Addai, Kenton Keith
Easiest against the run
32. Denver (166.0 YPG) - Kevin Jones, T.J. Duckett
31. Miami (160.5 YPG) – BYE
30. Oakland (148.9 YPG) – Ahman Green, Ron Dayne
29. Cleveland (139.4 YPG) – Shaun Alexander, Maurice Morris
28. Cincinnati (139.0 YPG) – Marshawn Lynch, Anthony Thomas
27. New York Jets (134.2 YPG) – Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts
Week 9 Schedule
Game/(Spread)/<Over/Under>/Weather High/Low,% of rain)
Sunday, November 4, 2007 1:00pm ET
Carolina @ Tennessee (-4) <35.5> 65/37, 10%
Green Bay @ Kansas City (-2) <37> 63/42, 20%
Cincinnati (-1) @ Buffalo <43.5> 56/38, 10%
San Diego (-7) @ Minnesota (Dome) <41>
Arizona @ Tampa Bay (+3.5) <38> 79/58, 10%
Denver (-3) @ Detroit (Dome) <45.5>
Jacksonville @ New Orleans (-3) (Dome) <40>
San Francisco @ Atlanta (-3.5) (Dome) <37>
Washington (-3.5) @ New York Jets <36> 48/41, 30%
4:05pm ET
Seattle @ Cleveland (-1.5) <46.5> 54/42, 20%
4:15pm ET
New England (–5.5) @ Indianapolis (Dome) <56.6>
Houston @ Oakland (-3) <41> 74/50, 0%
8:15pm ET
Dallas (-3) @ Philadelphia <46.5> 55/41, 20%
Monday, November 5, 2007 8:30pm ET
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-8.5) <36.5> 0%
Byes
Bears, Dolphins, Giants, Rams
Prediction of the Week: Colts 31-24
Answer: Brett Favre, Kurt Warner
Questions, comments, quandaries? Drop me a line at matt4477@gmail.com