One of the things football purists hate about fantasy football is how fantasy scoring bastardizes our perception of the game and the players.
For instance, ask this question of a Jets fan and a non-Jets fan who happens to own Chad Pennington: “Did Pennington have a good game or a bad game against the Bengals in Week 7?”
The Jets fan will most likely tell you Pennington was terrible. Forget the stats. His fourth quarter fumble gave the Bengals a short field for a TD that pushed their lead from one to eight and his late pick six was the final nail in the coffin. All that matters is the L, and Pennington seems to find a way to get there every week.
A fantasy owner, on the other hand, will tell you they’ll take 270 yards passing and 3 TD any day. You never like turnovers, but a first-quarter fumble and a game-sealing interception all count the same (and a lot less than three TD). By any fantasy measure, Chad had a good game.
And, unless you’re a Jets fan, I suppose that’s really all that counts.
Keep this in mind with our Week 8 picks. Marc Bulger may be feeling the heat of a team falling apart around him, but he’s still going to score against the Browns. Cedric Benson may still be a bust, but he’s a bust playing the Lions. Joe Jurevicius is an inconsistent role player, but he’ll be covered by some guy you’ve never heard of against the Rams. Vernon Davis has spent more time filming click clack commercials than playing football, but he’s got Alex Smith back and they’re facing the Saints.
Atlanta, Dallas, Kansas City, Arizona, Seattle and Baltimore are all off this week.
Week 9
Byes: Chicago, St. Louis, Miami, NY Giants
Keep an eye on:
QB: Matt Schaub, Houston (@Oakland): With the rib injury and the prolonged absence of Andre Johnson, Schaub’s stock has never been lower. I still say the first two weeks were the real deal with this offense, and, if Schaub is back, he’s a legit fantasy starter.
RB: Dominic Rhodes, Oakland (Houston): With his underwhelming contribution through the first two games after his DUI suspension (nothing against the Chargers, 9 carries for 21 yards against the Chiefs), somebody in a roster pinch might decide to cut bait. But I still think LaMont Jordan’s back is going to force him out for a stretch at some point this season, and that means Rhodes will be back to the feature role.
WR: Chris Henry, Cincinnati (@Buffalo): It seems odd to say the third WR is going to make the difference for this team, but the Bengals offense just isn’t the same without Henry. And the schedule is rife with opportunity: Starting in Week 11, Arizona, Tennessee, @Pittsburgh, St. Louis, @San Francisco, Cleveland, @Miami
TE: Kyle Brady, New England (@Indianapolis): Whether or not Ben Watson returns, Brady has shown an ability to make an impact in the Pats’ goal line package. He’s not the kind of TE who’ll get you 7 catches, but there’s a decent chance he picks up a TD.
K: Mason Crosby, Green Bay (@Kansas City): The KC defense is one of the most underrated in the league. And without a running game to finish off drives, Crosby figures to get numerous opportunities for points.
D: Cleveland (Seattle): I know. Cleveland’s defense stinks. But the Seahawks stink worse on the road. If ever the Browns were going to be worth a start, it would be against Holmgren’s Heartless.
Possible bad match-ups:
QB: Brett Favre, Green Bay (@Kansas City): Like I said, the Chiefs D is for real (only 16.1 ppg allowed, good for seventh in the NFL).
RB: Willis McGahee, Baltimore (@Pittsburgh): Kyle Boller is starting to look like Kyle Boller.
WR: Roy Williams, Detroit (Denver): Champ Bailey should be back for this one.
TE: Todd Heap, Baltimore (@Pittsburgh): Kyle Boller is Kyle Boller.
K: Nick Folk, Dallas (@ Philadelphia): Rookie wall. Happens to the best of them.
D: New England (@ Indianapolis): Not shutting down the Colts.
Week 10
Byes: New England, NY Jets, Tampa Bay, Houston
(If you’re lucky enough to land the team in your league who has Tom Brady, don’t waste the good fortune. Just win, baby.)
Keep an eye on:
QB: Kurt Warner, Arizona (Detroit): If he can play through the bad elbow to throw for nearly 300 yards at Washington, he should have no problem carving up the Lions.
RB: Ricky Williams, Miami (Buffalo): I don’t know. I miss Ricky. He was fun.
WR: Hines Ward, Pittsburgh (Cleveland): Ward has been a tremendous disappointment to date, and seems to have fallen to fourth in the passing game pecking order behind Santonio Holmes, Willie Parker and Heath Evans. Still, this is a Browns D that has allowed more passing TD (17) than any other team in the league.
TE: David Martin, Miami (Buffalo): If the Dolphins lose in Week 8 in London to the Giants, it’s very likely Week 10 is the dawn of the John Beck era. And if there’s one thing we know about rookie QBs, it’s that they love the check down.
K: Jeff Wilkins, St. Louis (@New Orleans): More than any other position, a kicker can benefit from having a bad offense.
D: Baltimore (Cincinnati): This is based on my guess the Bengals offense takes on a whole new look with Henry back. Also, Baltimore isn't half as good as Ray Lewis thinks.
Possible bad match-ups:
QB: Vince Young, Tennessee (Jacksonville): Home or away, it doesn’t matter. VY does not play well against the Jags.
RB: Kevin Jones, Detroit (@Arizona): The Cardinals shut down Clinton Portis and the Redskins rush offense (28 attempts for 73 yards), and the Lions’ offensive line isn’t as good as Washington’s.
WR: Braylon Edwards (@Pittsburgh): Edwards has been one of the most surprising breakout stars of 2007, but I’m not sure I trust this offense at Heinz quite yet.
TE: Jason Witten, Dallas (@NY Giants): At this point, I don’t trust anybody against a Giants defense that has an NFL-high 27 sacks.
K: Joe Nedney, San Francisco (@Seattle): This is a rare NFC West Monday nighter (not rare enough). With the crowd in a frenzy, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Niners get shut out.
D: San Diego (Indianapolis): If the Colts beat the Pats, they come in on a high. If they lose, they come out extra focused. Either way, I don’t see a still-shaky Chargers secondary stopping Peyton Manning.