Quote from last week’s Advanced Scout: “Damon Huard is a more-than-respectable choice for a spot start (in Week 6), as long as he makes it through Jacksonville in Week 5.”
Well, he didn’t. And now it’s most likely Brodie Croyle's time at Arrowhead. Luckily, he starts off with one of the softest defenses in the league in Cincinnati, which has the 28th ranked pass defense and only four sacks in four games. The Bengals are coming off a bye, but unless they somehow fixed David Pollack’s neck and got Odell Thurman’s suspension lifted during the off week, their linebacker corps is still a few sandwiches short of a picnic.
In other words, it’s a green light for Larry Johnson, Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe.
Hell, even Croyle might put up some numbers. I mean, who would you rather start this Sunday: Croyle at home against the Bengals or Drew Brees on the road at Seattle? Can you believe it’s even debatable? This is nuts.
As for the rest of our Week 6 picks, Chester Taylor is the Fred Thompson of running backs. At first, he was completely over-hyped. Then he struggled. Then he was completely under-rated. And now, like Thompson at this past Tuesday’s GOP debate in Michigan, all he needs to do is breathe properly to exceed expectations. Thompson came through. I’m betting Taylor does as well.
Miami WR Tedd Ginn is actually a better option now than he was two weeks ago. Cleo Lemon gets disrespected because he has a nerd name, but he’s not bad. He’s got some mobility and a stronger arm than Trent Green. And young back-up QBs tend to look for young developing WRs, if only because they have more practice time with each other than with the starters (J.P. Losman-to-Lee Evans as an example). Don’t be surprised if Ginn finally makes Sports-Center after this one.
Seattle TE Marcus Pollard should be an even better option now that Deion Branch is out with a sprained foot and the Giants are gold against a Falcons team missing their best offensive lineman (LT Wayne Gandy).
Buffalo, Denver, Detroit, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and San Francisco are all off this week.
Week 7
Byes: Cleveland, Green Bay, San Diego, Carolina
Possible pick-ups:
QB: Chad Pennington, New York Jets (@Cincinnati): Assuming he doesn’t get benched for more dumb interceptions this Sunday against Philly, Pennington is still a reliable fantasy fill-in. Otherwise, the title goes to Kellen Clemens.
RB: Jerious Norwood, Atlanta (@New Orleans): With all due respect to Warrick Dunn, Norwood should be getting the lion’s share of the carries in the Atlanta backfield. It’s only a matter of time before he breaks out.
WR: Bobby Engram, Seattle (vs. St. Louis): Branch will still likely be out, making Engram the de-facto number 1 (‘cause it ain’t Nate Burleson). With a good showing likely on tap this Sunday at home to a pitiful Saints defense, pick up Engram now.
TE: Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville (Indianapolis): Jacksonville QB David Garrard spreads the ball around, hitting 11 different receivers so far, so it’s hard to focus in on just one guy. But Lewis is second on the team with 12 receptions for 131 yards, and this is a home Monday night rivalry game for the Jags. I got a hunch.
D: Philadelphia (vs. Chicago): Chicago may have gotten off the schnide against the Packers, but they still have serious issues on offense. The Eagles should be healthy and ready to take advantage.
K: Stephen Gostkowski, New England (@Miami): See the Tom Brady paragraph under “Potential bad match-ups.” The Pats have a tendency to bog down on South Beach.
Possible bad match-ups:
QB: Tom Brady, New England (@Miami). I mentioned last week Brady just doesn’t play well in Miami. Here are the numbers to back it up:
2006: 21-0 loss; Corey Dillon had more yards running (79) than Brady did passing (78). No TD or INT.
2005: 23-16 win; 21 of 36 for 275, 2 TD and 2 INT
2004: 29-28 loss; Pats were 12-1, Miami 2-11; Brady went 18 of 29 for 171, 3 TD and 4 INT.
2003: 19-13 win in overtime as Olindo Mare missed two game-winning kicks off the dirt; Brady had 200 yards passing and one TD before an 82-yarder to Troy Brown on blown coverage for the win. (This is one of my favorites in the Brady era. I was at my buddy Kev’s house – huge Dolphins fan. When Mare lined up for the first kick, I was doomed. Then new life. Then doomed again. Then new life again. Then the dagger to the heart of Miami. So sweet.)
2002: 26-13 loss; 17 of 31 for 240, 2 TD and 2 INT
2001: 30-10 loss; 12 of 24 for 86 yards
In the six games at Miami, Brady has been sacked 16 times and fumbled 7 times, losing 4. Like I said, not a great match-up.
RB: Edgerrin James, Arizona (@Washington): The Cards offense is explosive these days, but two points of caution on Edge in Week 7:
1. The Redskins defense is no joke. Detroit couldn’t do anything against them.
2. Let’s not go anointing Kurt Warner the savior just yet. He’s still half a decade removed from being an above-average NFL QB.
WR: Hines Ward, Pittsburgh (@Denver): It’s possible the Steelers come out of the bye with a renewed vigor for the passing game. It’s also possible the Broncos come off the 41-3 whipping last week with a renewed vigor for not letting people score at will. There’s too much uncertainty, especially with Ward coming off the knee injury.
TE: Owen Daniels, Houston (Tennessee): If Andre Johnson comes back as expected, Daniels’ numbers take a dive.
D: Tennessee (@Houston): We only got to see it for two weeks, but Matt Schaub-to-Johnson has the potential to be one of the most productive pairings in the NFL.
K: Joe Nedney, San Francisco (@NY Giants): His missed FG to win the game against Baltimore was a killer for a team that’s fallen hard after their 2-0 start.
Week 8
Bye: Atlanta, Dallas, Kansas City, Arizona, Seattle, Baltimore
Keep an eye on:
QB: Gus Frerotte/Marc Bulger, St. Louis (Cleveland): The Rams aren’t going 0-16. The offense showed signs of life against Arizona. By this time, Steven Jackson should be back, as should Isaac Bruce.
RB: Cedric Benson, Chicago (Detroit): If Benson can’t get on track against the Lions, he’s in full on Curtis Enis territory.
WR: Joe Jurevicius, Cleveland (@St. Louis)
TE: Vernon Davis, San Francisco (New Orleans): I’ve been down on Davis since before the 49ers drafted him, but this presents itself as a possible break-out point.
D: Indianapolis (@Carolina)
K: Phil Dawson, Cleveland (@St. Louis)
Possible bad match-ups:
QB: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati (Pittsburgh): That offensive line is in serious trouble.
RB: Ahman Green, Houston (@San Diego)
WR: Jerry Porter, Oakland (@Tennessee)
TE: Chris Cooley, Washington (@New England)
D: Tampa Bay (Jacksonville)
K: Lawrence Tynes, New York Giants (@Miami)