Login     Register
View Article

Current Articles | Categories | Search | Syndication

Advanced Scout > Confessions of an Idiot

Sometimes all the information in the world isn’t enough to save you from yourself.

Case in point:

I set my fantasy football line-up on Fridays. I’ve got all the injury info I’m going to have. I’ve looked at the match-ups. The smart move isn't changing from Friday to Sunday, so no point in risking a computer crash, car accident or other unforseen tragedy that might prevent me from setting my line-up. On this particular Friday, I’m picking Patrick Crayton to start over an injured Hines Ward. And though I’m not convinced Tony Gonzalez is going to have a great game at San Diego, I decide to stick with him over anybody else I could find on the waiver wire.

Then on Sunday morning, I’m checking for any last-minute injury news, and I have a sudden gut feeling that Sam Hurd is going to have a big game against the Rams instead of Crayton and Gonzalez is going to get shut out by a Chargers defense that's bound to play possessed. So I sit Crayton for Bobby Engram and pick up Raiders TE Zach Miller, figuring the injury to Miami LB Zach Thomas would leave room in the middle for Miller.

Crayton caught 7 balls for 184 yards and two touchdowns. Gonzalez had 5 receptions for 71 yards and a touchdown.

Engram caught 4 balls for 53 yards and a touchdown and Miller got shut out.

By our scoring system, I put 40 points on the bench with my last-second idiot moves.

I lost by 32.

It makes me nauseous just thinking about it.

Now please excuse me while I channel my inner Bears/Chargers/Eagles/Saints/Bengals fan:

“It’s not too late. It’s not too late. It’s not too late. ...”

On to the future:

Week 5

Of the players from our previous lists for this coming Sunday, the Tennessee defense and Patrick Crayton are long gone. Houston RB Ron Dayne is a great option against Miami, Jacksonville QB David Garrard is still a good option against KC, Tennessee K Rob Bironas is decent against Atlanta and Jets TE Chris Baker is so-so against the Giants.

On the negative, still sit Bears RB Cedric Benson at Green Bay, 49ers WR Darrell Jackson against Baltimore and the Miami D at Houston (I shouldn’t need to tell you that). Tony Romo is top-3 MVP right now, so you can’t sit him at Buffalo, even though I think the Bills are going to cause the Cowboys problems. It’s likewise hard to sit Antonio Gates (tied for second most catches in the NFL), even though he’s never scored a TD at Denver and the Chargers offense is anything but a smooth operation.

Cincinnati, Oakland, Minnesota and Philadelphia are off.

Week 6

Byes: Buffalo, Denver, Detroit, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Francisco

Pick-Ups:

QB: Damon Huard, Kansas City (vs. Cincinnati)

Playing defense without linebackers is like digging a hole in the surf. It’s just going to keep caving in on itself. Bad news for Bengals fans, good news for anybody on the opposing offenses. With Dwayne Bowe exploding on the scene over the past two weeks, opening holes for Tony Gonzalez in the process, Huard is a more-than-respectable choice for a spot start (as long as he makes it healthy through Jacksonville in Week 5).

RB: Chester Taylor, Minnesota (@Chicago)

Taylor has completed his transition from wildly over-rated to completely under-rated in just a few short weeks. I’m not saying he’s going off at Soldier Field, but in a six-bye week, options are slim. Taylor’s a C choice with B potential.

WR: Ted Ginn, Miami (@Cleveland)

This is entirely dependant on your league’s treatment of the return game. Ginn’s still not a regular part of the offense, but he’s the primary kick-off and punt returner. And he’s going to break one soon.

(And if there’s any place for Ginn to break into the offense, it’s against Cleveland’s second-worst pass defense).

TE: Marcus Pollard, Seattle (@New Orleans)

If you put together the LB corps from the Saints and Bengals, you still wouldn’t have a legit starting unit. That’s gold for opposing TEs, and Pollard is a steady-if-unspectacular option in the Seahawks passing game.

D: New York Giants (@Atlanta):

Quote from last week: “Good pass rush against the Skins. They may turn the corner.”

Yeah, I guess they turned the corner. And the corner’s name was Winston Justice.

Another option might be Baltimore hosting St. Louis. The Ravens can probably be bought on the cheap right now, and there’s a good chance they’re facing Gus Frerotte.

Bonus: Houston (@Jacksonville): I actually had the Texans listed as a bad match-up until I realized remembered they’ve won three of their past five at Jacksonville, holding the Jags to an average of 15 points per. And this is by far the best Houston defense in that time span.

K: Morten Anderson, Atlanta (vs. New York Giants)

Why the hell not?

Potential bad match-ups:

QB: Vince Young, Tennessee (@Tampa Bay)

You have to love Young’s game, but I don’t see this as being a great match-up. Tampa has the stingiest scoring defense in the league, allowing only 11 points per game.

RB: Clinton Portis, Washington (@Green Bay)

The problem with Portis isn’t his running (4.7 yards per carry, 3 TD). It’s how much he’s running. Or, more accurately, how much he’s not running. It makes sense from the Redskins’ point of view, but it’s going to be hard for Portis to reclaim top fantasy status with only 17 carries per game (like he gives a rat’s ---).

WR: Terrell Owens, Dallas (vs. New England)

TO is off to a fantastic year, but my guess is Bill Belichick has Asante Samual jam him off the line every snap, with Rodney Harrison over the top. Cowboys offensive coordinator Jason Garrett isn’t an ego-driven play caller. If you take away one thing, he’ll find another, be it Jason Witten, Patrick Crayton or ground and pound (a Mixed Martial Arts term I think should be adapted to the NFL).

TE: Eric Johnson, New Orleans (@Seattle)

Until they prove otherwise, it’s tough to trust anybody on the Saints. Plus, Seattle MLB Lofa Tatupu is one of game’s best young backers.

D: Jacksonville (Houston)

This is also the best offense the Jags have faced from the Texans in the past ... ever (especially if Andre Johnson is back as expected/hoped).  

K: Jeff Wilkins, St. Louis (@Baltimore)

Not only is his offense not likely to get into scoring position very often, Wilkins is in a personal slump, having hit only 6 of 10 this season. There’s just nothing to like about this Rams team right now.

Week 7

Byes: Cleveland, Green Bay, San Diego, Carolina

Keep an eye on:

QB: Chad Pennington, New York Jets (@Cincinnati)

RB: Jerious Norwood, Atlanta (@New Orleans)

WR: Bobby Engram, Seattle (vs. St. Louis)

TE: Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville (Indianapolis)

D: Philadelphia (vs. Chicago)

K: Stephen Gostkowski, New England (@Miami)

Possible bad match-ups:

QB: Tom Brady, New England (@Miami). Undefeated isn’t even in the room, let alone on the table, until I know the Pats have won in Miami. Brady just doesn’t play well there, though he’s obviously still a must-start.

RB: Edgerrin James, Arizona (@Washington)

WR: Hines Ward, Pittsburgh (@Denver)

TE: Owen Daniels, Houston (Tennessee)

D: Tennessee (@Houston)

K: Joe Nedney, San Francisco (@NY Giants)

posted @ Wednesday, October 03, 2007 1:03 PM by Seth Doria

Previous Page | Next Page

COMMENTS

Currently, there are no comments. Be the first to post one!
Click here to post a comment