Hello everyone. This time, I am flying solo as my NFFC co-owner Lori Rubinson attends to other pressing matters. Don’t forget to catch her on New York’s WFAN, the nation’s top all-sports station.

 

As regular readers of this column as well as our fellow NFFC participants know, a major change in the competition was instituted this season – third round reversal or 3RR. The idea is to balance out the draft (and ensuing season results) by having the 14 through 1 teams pick in that order in both the second and third rounds. All other rounds are selected in normal serpentine fashion.

 

Not directly spoken, but certainly a consideration in implementing 3RR was the unprecedented season of LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006. As documented previously here, an amazing 48% of LT2’s NFFC owners last season won their league.

 

I know it is far too early to draw any meaningful conclusions about 3RR with only three weeks of the 2007 season in the books. However, who isn’t curious? So, what I will do here is present the data and just make observations about it.

 

As an aside, it is only fitting that I write about this, as Lori and I co-manage one of the 26 teams that picked 14th, arguably the position most positively addressed by 3RR. At least that is the theory.

 

With Willis McGahee, Peyton Manning, Torry Holt, Lamont Jordan and Jamal Lewis as our core, our squad was highest scoring in New York 2 League after two weeks. Reality set in during week three, however, as we took our first loss in a match that was not close.

 

However, this article isn’t about our team. Instead, it is about how 3RR seems to be doing. Comparing to 2006 or any other season for that matter just won’t cut it, though.

 

Take the teams with the first draft pick this season. With LT2 and his 32.7 points per game safely rostered, those teams should be in the driver’s seat, 3RR or not, right?

 

Not so. After three games here in 2007, Tomlinson isn’t the same player he was last year, currently scoring just 16.25 PPG – just under half his 2006 average. All 3RR can do is shrink the margin of error for the teams that drafted first. Suffice it to say 48% of them are not leading their leagues today.

 

Still, all is not lost. As the data below shows, after three weeks, the teams that picked first are on average fifth-highest in the overall standings compared to the teams that drafted in the other positions back on September 1st.

 

Draft Position	Overall Rank Total (26 tms each)	Average Rank (364 teams)
13	3822	147
11	3853	148
7	4159	160
14	4299	165
1	4464	172
9	4514	174
2	4638	178
3	4758	183
12	4804	185
8	5059	195
10	5257	202
6	5473	211
4	5509	212
5	5800	223

 

Generally speaking, the teams that drafted near the end are placing higher in the overall standings, with the first-drafting teams in the middle, while the middle-drafting teams are more clustered around the lower levels of performance.

 

The teams drafting 13th are ranked best on the average, while those drafting fifth are ranked worst after three weeks of play.

 

Now, let’s look at how the teams are doing in head-to-head action. This next table shows the average number of team wins through three weeks based on their draft position.

 

Draft Position	Total H2H Wins	Team Avg. Wins
11	46	1.77
7	45	1.73
6	45	1.73
13	42	1.62
4	42	1.62
14	39	1.50
2	39	1.50
8	38	1.46
1	38	1.46
9	37	1.42
12	36	1.38
3	35	1.35
10	32	1.23
5	32	1.23

 

Teams that drafted fifth have the fewest head-to-head wins on average, not surprisingly, as they also have made the poorest showing in the overall standings. However, look at the teams that picked immediately next. While the number six drafters are ranked third lowest in the overall standings on average, they are third-best in head-to-head results so far. 

 

But, since each of the numbers in the above tables represents the average of 26 different teams, it doesn’t really tell us much about the top teams in the competition. To help answer that, the following are offered.

 

First, we look at the highest placement in the overall standings of any team by draft position. The current overall leader drafted fifth, while currently the best team that drafted sixth is only 59th in the combined standings after three weeks.

 

Draft Position	Best Overall Placement
5	1
2	2
11	3
14	4
13	7
8	8
10	10
9	13
1	14
4	18
3	20
7	23
12	29
6	59

 

In the final table, I looked at the top ten percent of all teams in the main event, 36 of the 364, and where they drafted. In this case, I present the data in draft order. This makes it clear that after three weeks more teams within striking distance of the top spot picked in the middle or the end of the draft.

 

At this point, six teams that drafted 13th are in the top 36 of the NFFC overall standings, though only one of them is currently in the top 13. Wouldn’t you know they are in our league, New York 2!

 

Draft Position	# Teams in Top 10% Overall
1	1
2	2
3	1
4	1
5	3
6	0
7	3
8	4
9	4
10	1
11	4
12	3
13	6
14	3

 

The key phrase in the preceding paragraphs may be “after three weeks”. Remember, this is a report on the early returns of 3RR, with no definitive conclusions offered or implied. The vast majority of the 2007 NFL season remains ahead of us.

 

See you back here in three weeks!

 

 

Lori Rubinson is a host on WFAN, New York’s leading sports talk radio station. You can listen live on the Internet at www.wfan.com. Brian Walton’s work can also be seen daily at stlcardinals.scout.com.