If there’s an overwhelming theme to the 2007 NFL season, it’s the team-killing slow starts by some of the top fantasy performers of 2006:
Drew Brees is terrible (7 INT, 1 TD). The Chargers and Bears gave up 65 points on Sunday. LaDainian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson have a combined 270 yards rushing on 107 attempts. Laurence Maroney and Maurice Jones-Drew have no touchdowns between them. Steven Jackson has no touchdowns, no offensive line and a torn groin. Shaun Alexander has a broken bone in his hand, Deuce McAllister tore his ACL and Andre Johnson is out with a bad knee.
I mean, that’s a lot of bad juju right there.
And it’s why you should always be looking ahead. You never know who’s going down, so build depth. Fantasy and reality are an awful lot alike that way.
And that’s why I spend a ridiculous amount of time looking and writing about guys who end up with one catch for 9 yards as his team scores 56.
Jason Avant. Where were you, man?
Our other Week 3 suggestions and results:
QB: Jake Delhomme, Carolina (@Atlanta): Everything was going great until he hurt his elbow. Still, 109 yards passing with two TDs is highly respectable.
RB: Leon Washington, New York Jets (vs. Miami): Washington’s place in the offense is still lacking (7 carries for 18 yards, no receptions against Miami), but that 98-yard kick-off return for a TD added up nicely.
WR: Jason Avant, Philadelphia (vs. Detroit): Let this be a lesson: Don’t jump on a possession receiver playing a defense that can’t stop the deep ball.
TE: Zach Miller, Oakland (vs. Cleveland): One catch for 13 yards. Hey, it’s more than Hines Ward had (1 for 2). Still, not enough.
D: Minnesota (vs. Kansas City): 1 fumble, 1 sack and 13 points allowed. Not exactly game-changing, but certainly not a disaster.
K: Shaun Suisham, Washington (vs. New York Giants): Figures he missed his first attempt. At least the other FG and two XP kept him in positive territory.
Here’s a recap of who to look for (or away from) in Week 4:
Byes: Tennessee, New Orleans, Washington, Jacksonville
Pick-Ups:
QB: Steve McNair / Kyle Boller, Baltimore (at Cleveland): Boller has looked extremely reliable over the past two games, completing 31 of 45 pass attempts (69 percent) for 268 yards and 2 TDs. With McNair permanently hobbled (good band name), and the Ravens’ next four of @ Cleveland, @ San Francisco, St. Louis, @ Buffalo, Boller is a legit fill-in against the Browns. How weird is that?
RB: Sammy Morris, New England (@Cincinnati): 1. The Bengals defense stinks. 2. Morris has 2 touchdowns on the year. Laurence Maroney has zero.
WR: Vincent Jackson, San Diego (vs. Kansas City): Another good game (6 for 98 and a TD) against the Packers and now playing a beatable defense in the Chiefs. The Chargers offense is about to go off, and Jackson’s going to play a big role.
TE: Bubba Franks, Green Bay (@Minnesota): An injury replacement for Eagles TE LJ Smith, Bubba is back to being a Red Zone threat with touchdowns in back-to-back games. The Vikings defense just allowed Tony Gonzalez his best game of the season (7 for 96).
D: Houston (@Atlanta): The final tally against the Colts wasn’t impressive, but that was not an easy 30 put up by Indianapolis. Peyton Manning only had one touchdown pass, and none of the Colts scores were of the big-play variety (touchdown plays of 2, 4 and 8 yards). Rookie Amobi Okoye is a developing story with three sacks already. Mario Williams has another two.
K: Nick Folk, Dallas (vs. St. Louis): The rookie from Arizona is the third-highest scoring kicker in the league behind Jeff Reed and Adam Vinatieri. With the beaten down 0-3 Rams in town in Week 4, the offense will be moving the ball. That translates to points for Folk.
Potential bad match-ups:
QB: Matt Leinart, Arizona (vs. Pittsburgh). Got benched for Kurt Warner in his last game. The stingiest scoring defense in the NFL (8.7 per) is no place to make a comeback.
RB: Steven Jackson, St. Louis (@Dallas). Out. So, yeah, that’s a bad match-up.
Bonus: Shaun Alexander, Seattle (@San Francisco)
WR: Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis (vs. Denver). Since Champ Bailey came to Denver in 2004, Harrison’s totals vs. the Broncos: 4 receptions for 50 yards, 0 TD; 5 receptions for 33 yards, 1 TD; 5 receptions for 38 yards, 0 TD.
TE: Alge Crumpler, Atlanta (vs. Houston). He finally got some good action against the Panthers with 6 catches for 63 yards and a TD. I feel better about him now than I did two weeks ago, but still don’t like him against DeMeco Ryans and the Texans D.
D: Chicago (@Detroit). Even against a possessed Eagles team playing with a huge lead, Jon Kitna threw for almost 450. Against a Bears defense reeling from injuries, the Lions offense is going to score. The question is how much.
K: Stephen Gostkowski, New England (@Cincinnati). Nobody has more extra points (15) than Gostkowski, but he’s only seventh in total points scored (24, 13 fewer than Jeff Reed). The offense is just too efficient.
And now a bit further into the future ...
Week 5
Byes: Cincinnati, Oakland, Minnesota, Philadelphia
Pick-Ups:
QB: David Garrard, Jacksonville (@Kansas City): Not counting the three kneel-downs at the end, Garrard ran 9 times for 57 yards, including five rushes for first downs (once on fourth down, twice on third, twice on second). Plus, he had a seven-yard TD run in the first quarter nullified by a penalty. If Garrard is scoring with his legs and arm, he vaunts into the next tier of fantasy QBs.
RB: Ron Dayne, Houston (vs. Miami): Even though Dayne was held out against Indianapolis, he’s a good bet by Week 5 against a weak Dolphins defense. (When was that last time you said that about Miami?) Dayne’s ribs will heal a lot faster than Ahman Green’s left knee.
WR: Patrick Crayton, Dallas (@Buffalo): My original pick for this spot, Carolina’s Drew Carter, only had 1 catch for 17 yards against the Falcons. And though the Saints defense looks terrible against the pass, they’ll be coming off a bye and playing at home. (When is it ok to give up on them? I feel like it’s not yet.)
Instead I’m going with Crayton, still the #2 WR for the most explosive offense west of Foxborough. If he wasn’t already available, he’s going to get dropped in a lot of leagues after his three-catch, 27-yard, 1-dropped TD performance on Sunday night. Buy low.
TE: Chris Baker, New York Jets (@NY Giants): After the top tier, there are two kinds of fantasy TEs: the ones who catch touchdowns and the ones who don’t. Baker is a featured part of the Jets’ Red Zone scheme, and has a TD in each of the past two weeks.
D: Tennessee (vs. Atlanta): If you weren’t sold on the Titans before Monday night, you are now. Unfortunately, now it’s probably too late. Arizona might not be a bad bet playing at St. Louis.
K: Olindo Mare, New Orleans (vs. Carolina): I’m bumping Tennessee’s Rob Bironas (vs. Atlanta) because of the sudden demise of the Panthers D and the fact the Saints will be coming off a bye. Incidentally, I think the Deuce McAllister injury may be a blessing in disguise for the Saints offense. I hate saying that, because it sucks for the player, but Bush’s inability to get on track has been a huge part of their offensive shortcomings. My guess is being forced into the feature role brings out the fire he needs to dominate.
Potential bad match-ups:
QB: Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay (@Indianapolis): It was originally Dallas’ Tony Romo playing at Buffalo in the first Monday Night game in Orchard Park since 2000, but the Bills injuries are too much.
RB: Cedric Benson, Chicago (@Green Bay)
WR: Darrell Jackson, San Francisco (Baltimore)
TE: Antonio Gates, San Diego (@Denver, where he has never scored a TD in his career)
D: Miami (@Houston)
K: Josh Brown, Seattle (@Pittsburgh)
Week 6
Byes: Buffalo, Denver, Detroit, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Francisco
Keep an eye on:
QB: Damon Huard / Brodie Croyle, Kansas City (vs. Cincinnati)
RB: Jamal Lewis, Cleveland (vs. Miami)
WR: Ted Ginn, Miami (@Cleveland)
TE: Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota (@Chicago)
D: New York Giants (@Atlanta): Good pass rush against the Skins. They may turn the corner.
K: Morten Anderson, Atlanta (vs. New York Giants)
Potential bad match-up:
QB: Vince Young, Tennessee (@Tampa Bay)
RB: Clinton Portis, Washington (@Green Bay)
WR: Terrell Owens, Dallas (vs. New England)
TE: Eric Johnson, New Orleans (@Seattle)
D: Houston (@Jacksonville)
K: Jeff Wilkins, St. Louis (@Baltimore)