Hello. Welcome to the first edition of “Advanced Scout,” where we take a look at the schedule 2, 3 and 4 weeks out to look for possible waiver wire pick-ups now that could pay off in a W then.
Why? Because while most people can’t see past Week 2, with everybody clamoring for the one or two free agents who put up big numbers in Week 1, the real advantages are found by playing the match-ups. And while you always want to keep an eye on the next opponent, you have to look ahead to get ahead.
So here they are, the top potential pick-ups at each position for Week 3, along with a warning signs roster of players whose match-ups look less than favorable. Also listed are guys to keep an eye on for Weeks 4 and 5, with some possible bad match-ups for those weeks.
Week 3
Pick-ups:
QB: Jake Delhomme, Carolina (@ Atlanta): Delhomme went 18 for 27 with 3 TDs and no INTs vs. Rams in Week 1. The Falcons gave up 300 yards to the Vikings and have to go to 0-1 Jacksonville in Week 2, meaning they are going to come into Week 3 with some bruises.
RB: Leon Washington, New York Jets (vs. Miami): The Redskins just put up 191 yards rushing on the Dolphins defense. Leon won’t put up big numbers in Week 2 at Baltimore, so he should be there for the taking. It might also be worth a shot to see if you can pry Thomas Jones on the cheap from a panicking owner after next week.
WR: Jason Avant, Philadelphia (vs. Detroit): Avant had 3 receptions and a touchdown vs. Green Bay in Week 1. The Lions may have beat Oakland, but they gave up over 300 yards passing to Josh McCown, 133 of which went to Ronald Curry – who himself wouldn’t be a bad pick-up with the Raiders hosting the Browns in Week 3.
TE: Zach Miller, Oakland (vs. Cleveland): Miller may have only caught 3 balls against the Lions, but he has great hands and defenses are going to have to focus on Curry and LaMont Jordan, who had 9 receptions and 169 all-purpose yards against the Lions. Pittsburgh tight end Heath Miller led all Pittsburgh receivers in receptions – albeit only 4 – including a touchdown against the Browns in Week 1.
D: Minnesota (vs. Kansas City): After destroying the Falcons – six sacks, two INTs for TDs – chances are the Vikes get picked up in the post Week 1 frenzy. Then again, they play at Detroit in Week 2, so maybe people will hold off. Either way, you should make a run at them.
If the Vikings are gone, chances are you’ll see the Raiders on a waiver wire near you after giving up nearly 400 yards to the Lions. But their opponent in Week 3, Cleveland, has a far less formidable offense (in the understatement of the decade).
K: Shaun Suisham, Washington (vs. New York Giants): The combination of a powerful running game, developing passing game and a weak Giants defense should make for plenty of work for the Redskins’ Week 1 hero.
Warning Signs:
QB: Marc Bulger, St. Louis (@ Tampa Bay): The Bucs held Matt Hasselbeck and the Seahawks to 204 yards passing in Week 1, shutting out top WR Deion Branch. With Orlando Pace and Richie Incognito hurt for the Rams, Bulger could be in some serious trouble.
RB: Larry Johnson, Kansas City (vs. Minnesota): Playing the swarming Vikings defense – see above – is no way to establish a running game. This Chiefs team is going nowhere.
WR: Andre Johnson, Houston (@Indianapolis): If the Colts can shut down the Saints in Week 1, they can shut down the Texans in Week 3. Johnson might still get some catches, but it won’t be the 7 for 142 and a TD he put on the Chiefs.
TE: Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City (vs. Minnesota): Not to pick on the Chiefs, but the Falcons’ Alge Crumpler had 4 catches for 40 yards on Sunday. I’m not sure what advantage KC has over Atlanta that would make Gonzalez do any better against the same defense.
D: Green Bay (vs. San Diego): The Packers D had a great game vs. Philly, but will be hosting a Chargers team potentially coming off a loss to New England in Week 2.
K: Mason Crosby, Green Bay (vs. Baltimore): The Crosby Era has begun in Title Town, but Week 3 isn’t going to be a highlight.
Week 4
Byes: Tennessee, New Orleans, Washington, Jacksonville
Keep an eye on:
QB: Trent Green (vs. Oakland)
RB: Sammy Morris, New England (@Cincinnati)
WR: Vincent Jackson, San Diego (vs. Kansas City)
TE: LJ Smith, Philadelphia (@NY Giants)
D: Houston (@Atlanta)
K: Jason Elam, Denver (@Indianapolis)
Potential bad match-ups:
QB: Jay Cutler, Denver (@Indianapolis)
RB: Brandon Jackson, Green Bay (@Minnesota)
WR: Anquan Boldin / Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona (vs. Pittsburgh)
TE: Alge Crumpler, Atlanta (vs. Houston)
D: Patriots (@ Cincinnati on a Monday night)
K: Phil Dawson, Cleveland (Baltimore)
Week 5
Byes: Cincinnati, Oakland, Minnesota, Philadelphia
Keep an eye on:
QB: David Garrard, Jacksonville (@Kansas City)
RB: Ron Dayne, Houston (vs. Miami)
WR: Drew Carter, Carolina (@New Orleans)
TE: Chris Baker, New York Jets (@NY Giants)
D: Tennessee (vs. Atlanta)
K: Rob Bironas, Tennessee (vs. Atlanta)
Potential bad match-ups:
QB: Tony Romo, Dallas (@Buffalo in the first Monday Night game in Orchard Park since 2000)
RB: Cedric Benson, Chicago (@Green Bay)
WR: Darrell Jackson, San Francisco (Baltimore)
TE: Antonio Gates, San Diego (@Denver, where he has never scored a TD in his career)
D: Miami (@Houston)
K: Josh Brown, Seattle (@Pittsburgh)