I don’t know about you, but I have been finding myself humming the Monday Night Football theme song a lot more lately. I’ve been finding myself day dreaming at work lately, too. Like in the middle of our department meeting, I was deep in thought with questions like: Will Daunte Culpepper be able to rekindle his former fantasy dominance? Will Tom Brady being connecting with 10 receivers/gm like last year or will he be looking at Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth mostly? I wondered if Priest Holmes has anything left in the tank, if Brett Favre was going to stick around till his early 50’s and I wondered if Britney Spears would have any new drunk, topless pictures popping up on the internet within the next couple weeks.
Well, it’s finally September folks. It’s back to school, the beginning of autumn and the return of football. But perhaps most importantly it’s the start of a new season of fantasy football. I love fantasy baseball and basketball, but there’s nothing better than football! There’s not much that is better than the next four months of Sundays and Mondays.
The Weekly Forecast will be posted each Saturday (except in weeks with Thursday and Saturday contests) to help you prepare for each Game Day. We’ll do our best to help you with the latest injury news, key statistical matchups, the weather forecast and insight on some important depth chart battles. I wish you the best of luck on your pursuit for a title and hope you truly enjoy the next 17 weekends with the pigskin.
Depth Charts Battles
Tennessee RB: The Titans running back position is still up for grabs. LenDale White, Chris Brown and even rookie Chris Henry figure to contend for carries. The job will obviously go to whoever plays the best. White seems to have the most upside, but Brown proved he could do the job in 2005 too, rushing for 1067 yards and six TD. As of now, it appears coach Jeff Fisher is going to split carries with Brown and White initially, and then award the brunt of the reps to whoever fares better. Henry, however, could jump into the mix towards the end of the season after the rookie gets more acclimated to the pro game.
Detroit RB: The Lions were on the fence about what to do with injured running back, Kevin Jones. Detroit’s starter the past three seasons, Jones missed the team’s final four games in 2006 because of a foot injury. He underwent offseason surgery to repair it, and is still a step slow and very sore when he cuts sharply. To ease the backfield burden, Detroit landed Tatum Bell from Denver this summer to ease the load. Bell is used to splitting time at RB – he rambled for 1,025 yards in just 13 games in a two-back set with the Broncos last season. The Lions elected to keep Jones off the PUP list to start the season, but don’t expect him to be able to get much action early on – he’ll probably sit the first few weeks. With Jon Kitna, Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson and Mike Furrey, the Mike Martz-led Lions will definitely be one of the league’s top passing attacks in 2007. Bell will be a decent RB3/flex option heading into week one against the Raiders, who ranked No. 1 vs the pass in ’06. However, Detroit faces Minnesota in week 2, who ranked No. 1 vs the rush last season so neither are really a dependable option that week. Overall, expect more production from Bell this season, but both are worth owning in any fantasy leagues because of their upsides.
Minnesota RB: Last season, Chester Taylor exceeded all expectations in his first season as the primary ball carrier in Minnesota. He rushed for a career-high 1216 yards and six TD. However, the Vikings couldn’t resist drafting Adrian Peterson when he was still on the board with the No. 7 selection. He’s going to start the season as the change-of-pace back behind Taylor, but you can expect Peterson to supplant him eventually and get the lions’ share of the carries. Taylor will be the better back out of the gate, but Peterson definitely has the most upside and is worth a higher draft selection because of that.
Atlanta RB: As if the Falcons haven’t had enough of a tumultuous offseason with the Michael Vick controversy, they will open the year with a bit of a question mark at running back too. Warrick Dunn has been their unquestioned starter the past five years, including three straight 1,000-yard campaigns, but the lightening speed back underwent shoulder and back surgery this summer and is not quite back up to speed still. He’s started each of the past 48 games for Atlanta, so his durability is one of his strong suits, but you can expect a changing of the guard sometime this year with second-year back Jerious Norwood looming in his shadow. In 2006, Hot-lanta rushed for a league-high 2,939 yards and a 5.5 average, but this Vick-less offense will look to be much more proficient through the air this season. Norwood rushed for a cool 6.0 yards per carry in his rookie campaign and proved to be a nice change-of-pace to the elusive Dunn. Last season, Dunn had 286 carries and Norwood had just 99 – expect those numbers to be fairly even in 2007, making Norwood a very attractive sleeper candidate.
Carolina RB: Carolina RB: Like Minnesota and Atlanta, it appears there is a changing of the guard at running back in Carolina as well. DeShaun Foster did a decent job shouldering the load the past couple seasons, averaging 888 yards and three TD, but the Panthers like the explosiveness that second-year back DeAngelo Williams showcases more. He’s got the talent to be a superstar in this league, while Foster doesn’t appear to garner the same immense upside. Williams racked up 814 total yards predominantly in a backup role during his rookie year and should exceed those totals dramatically in a larger role during his sophomore campaign. Foster is definitely worth using as your RB3 early on, but expect Williams to take over the primary ball carrier duties by midseason, and hold on to the job for years to come.
Injuries
Quarterbacks
Damon Huard (calf) – expected to start opener
D.J. Shockley (knee surgery) – out for the season
Chris Simms (hip) – status uncertain
Michael Vick (personal) – out for the season
Running Backs
Mike Alstott (neck) – out for the season
Michael Bush (leg) – might return in week 7
Frank Gore (hand) – ready for week 1
Chris Henry (hamstring) – third-stringer, questionable for week 1
Noah Herron (knee) – out for the season
Priest Holmes (neck) – out until at least week 6
Kenny Irons (knee surgery) – out for season
Kevin Jones (foot) – doubtful for week 1
Thomas Jones (calf) – probable for week 1
Chris Perry (ankle) – return week 7
Dominic Rhodes (suspension) – return week 6
Koren Robinson (suspension) – can return on Sept. 18
Rod Smith (hip) – return week 7
Ricky Williams (suspension) – can be reinstated in 9/07
Wide Receivers
Troy Brown (knee surgery) – return week 7
Plaxico Burress (back) – expected to play in week 1
Antonio Chatman (hamstring) – out indefinitely
Tim Dwight (foot) – out indefinitely
Brian Finneran (knee surgery) – out for the season
Terry Glenn (knee surgery) – probable for week 1
David Givens (knee surgery) – might return in week 7
Chris Henry (suspension) – return week 10
Torry Holt (knee) – probable for week 1
Chad Jackson (knee) – might return in week 7
Randy Moss (hamstring) – questionable for week 1
Eric Parker (toe) – might return in week 11
Marcus Robinson (quadriceps) – out for the season
Amani Toomer (knee surgery) – probable for week 1
David Tyree (wrist) – out 4-to-6 weeks
Tight Ends
Michael Gaines (shoulder) – out for the season
Greg Olsen (knee) – game-time decision
L.J. Smith (abdomen) – out indefinitely
Kicker
Shane Graham (hip) – questionable for week 1
Best/Worst Matchups in week 1
(week 1 stats exclusively based on 2006 stats)
Up against toughest run defenses
1. Minnesota (61.6 YPG) – Warrick Dunn, Jerious Norwood
2. Baltimore (75.9 YPG) – Rudi Johnson, Kenny Watson
3. Pittsburgh (88.3 YPG) – Jamal Lewis, Jason Wright/Jerome Harrison
4. Jacksonville (91.3 YPG) – Chris Brown, LenDale White, Chris Henry
5. New England (94.2 YPG) – Thomas Jones, Leon Washington
Up against easiest run defenses
32. Indianapolis (173.0 YPG) – Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister
31. St. Louis (145.4 YPG) – DeShaun Foster, DeAngelo Williams
30. Tennessee (144.6 YPG) – Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew
29. Cleveland (142.2 YPG) – Willie Parker, Najeh Davenport
28. Buffalo (140.9 YPG) – Travis Henry, Cecil Sapp
Up against toughest pass defenses
1. Oakland (150.8 YPG) – Jon Kitna, Roy Williams, Charles Johnson/Mike Furrey
2. Indianapolis (159.3 YPG) – Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Reggie Bush
3. New Orleans (178.4 YPG) - Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne
4. Carolina (187.5 YPG) – Marc Bulger, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce/Drew Bennett
5. Miami (187.9 YPG) – Jason Campbell, Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle El/Chris Cooley
Up against easiest pass defenses
31T. Cincinnati (238.6 YPG) – Steve McNair, Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton
31T. Minnesota (238.6 YPG) – Joey Harrington, Alge Crumpler, Joe Horn
30. Arizona (230.9 YPG) – Alex Smith, Darrell Jackson, Arnaz Battle
29. Atlanta (229.3 YPG) – Tavaris Jackson, Bobby Wade, Troy Williamson
28. New York Giants (228.1 YPG) – Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn
Week 1 Schedule & Weather Forecast
Thursday, 9/6 8:30pm ET
New Orleans @ Indianapolis (Dome)
Sunday, 9/9 1:00pm ET
Philadelphia @ Green Bay 48/63, 10%
Atlanta @ Minnesota (Dome)
Miami @ Washington 68/86, 10%
New England @ New York Jets 70/82, 10%
Tennessee @ Jacksonville 77/93, 30%
Denver @ Buffalo 58/76, 40%
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland 65/82, 20%
Carolina @ St. Louis (Dome)
Kansas City @ Houston (Dome)
4:15pm ET
Tampa Bay @ Seattle 60/80, 10%
Chicago @ San Diego 65/79, 20%
Detroit @ Oakland 59/76, 10%
8:15pm ET
New York Giants @ Dallas (Dome)
Monday, 9/10 7:00pm ET
Baltimore @ Cincinnati 56/79, 40%
10:15pm ET
Arizona @ San Francisco 58/81, 10%