This is my second year in the National Fantasy Football Championships.  I'm in the Chicago draft and I'm in League 4.  I wanted to draft #1, but have the #12 pick.  I'm not too thrilled to have the #12 pick.

One thing I learned last year was that everyone was in lockstep.  I had Average Draft Position worksheet and players were taken off that list pretty much in order.  If it was time for the #12 running back to be drafted according to ADP, that is who was taken.  I tried to shake things up a little bit by going with projected points instead of ADP, but no one was shaken by that.

Assuming that everyone thinks inside the box again this year, that means that I can look at an ADP chart and have a very good idea of what will happen.  So, I put an ADP chart in a spreadsheet and type a couple of formulas to determine my optimal draft order.  Here is what I should go with based upon my #12 pick.

#1 Running Back
#2 Running Back
#3 Tight End (Grade-A) – or – Wide Receiver
#4 Quarterback
#5 Running Back
#6 Wide Receiver
#7 Wide Receiver
#8 Wide Receiver – or – Tight End
#9 Wide Receiver
#10 Backup Quarterback
#11 Defense
#12-#17 Value and Speculation
#18 Kicker

What this says is that I pretty much have to go with running backs with my first two picks.  If I don't then I risk not having a Grade-B running back as my #2.  By my third round pick (#40 overall) there will likely not be any Grade-B running backs left.  Based upon that, the more non-running backs that are taken, the better my draft will be.

In round #3, if by chance there is a Grade-A Tight End left, I should take him.  If not, grab a wide receiver.  My #4 pick should be at about the start of the first quarterback run, and I should jump in.  My #5 pick should be a running back, as there will be some useful guys left.  Then I grab as many wide receivers as I can get my hands on until round #10.  At round #10, I need to pick up a starting quarterback to be my backup.  I'll look for defense at #11 followed by backups, value and speculation for five rounds.

Another thing I learned was that pretty much no one carried more than one defense or kicker.  So, my last pick will be a kicker and I'll only carry one defense.  

As long as my bye weeks are spread out, I will be okay.

What would a team based upon this template and the 12th pick look like?

Pick #1: Willis McGahee (RB #10)
I'm guessing that at least two people above me will draft either a wide receiver or Payton Manning.  That would give me McGahee.

Pick #2: Ronnie Brown (RB #14)
I then assume that the two guys after me both go double RB for the same reasons I do.  That gives me Ronnie Brown.

Pick #3: Todd Heap (TE #2)
Antonio Gates will be selected before I get a chance.  Assuming that pick doesn't start a chain of TE picks, Todd Heap has a good chance to fall to me, if not, then T.J. Houshmandzadeh or Plaxico Burress should be available.

Pick #4: Carson Palmer (QB #3)
As my picks are so close together, I suspect that a run on quaterbacks will not have started yet.  The only two QB picked at this point would be Payton Manning and Tom Brady.  That would leave Carson Palmer for me.  In not Drew Brees and Donovan McNabb woud be close behind.

Pick #5: Julius Jones (RB #30)
As you can see with pick #5, there isn't much left in the starting RB category.  I have little choice but to take one now, even though he will be a backup for me.

Pick #6: Chris Chambers (WR #26)
Pick #7: Jerricho Cotchery (WR #33)
Pick #8: Calvin Johnson (WR #34) or Heath Miller (TE #10)
As I have covered QB, RB #3 and TE already and I suspect others will not have, I will have an opportunity to take from the middle of the pack of wide receivers.  If I don't get a Grade-A tight end, I will have to now.

Pick #9: Drew Bennett (WR #42)
My final starting player will be a wide receiver.  Bennett and Jones will be my flex- guys depending upon the situation.

Pick #10: Chad Pennington (QB #22)
Finally, I pick up my backup QB who is a starter, Chad Pennington.

I'm not saying these are the guys I'm shooting for.  This is how the math works out.  In order for this strategy to work, I need to find those middle of the pack WR that will breakout or in the case of Chris Chambers, have come back seasons.  It is just a simulation of what to expect.

In three weeks, I'll tell you what happens.

JP Kastner is taking part in his second National Fantasy Football Championship draft in Chicago.