LT, LJ and the MVP. This trio of running backs were the consensus top three picks prior to the 2006 football season in just about any league under any scoring format, including the NFFC.

As a refresher, here is how the initial three picks came to pass in the 24 NFFC main event league drafts (23 plus the Ultimate League):

Number of leagues taken, first three picks, 2006 NFFC

Pick	LT	LJ	MVP	Other
#1	7	10	7	0
#2	9	7	8	0
#3	8	7	9	0

To reiterate, Larry Johnson went number one in ten out of 24 leagues, earning the honor as the most desired player. LaDainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander each went number one seven times.

You read it right. No other player was taken in the top three picks in any of the 24 NFFC leagues.

But, as you may well know, once the draft was past and actual play began, these three studs had very different seasons.

Johnson has been a solid, top performer, scoring at a very respectable 22.7 points per game in the NFFC. Yet, LJ doesn’t hold a candle to LT.

The dominance of LaDainian Tomlinson and resulting impact across the 2006 fantasy football landscape seems unprecedented. Over the regular season, LT scored at an unreal 32.7 points per game clip.

At the other end of the spectrum is Alexander, who missed six games entirely and averaged just 12.4 points per game in the six during which he played.

As one might expect, the fate of the NFFC teams who took these three is almost as clearly delineated.

First, let’s look at the rosters of the 23 main event regular season league winners, each of whom pocketed $5000. for their victories.

	LT	LJ	MVP	Other
# League Winners	11	3	0	9
% of Total Leagues	48%	13%	0%	39%

Just under half of the 23 league champions, 11, had LT on their roster. Only three with LJ managed to fight to the top of their 14-team league, while not a single Alexander-led squad could overcome the Seattle star’s subpar season.

Yet, there is some hope, as nine league winners (39%) prevailed despite not having picked any one of the top three.

Shifting our focus to the overall leaderboard, which is based on total points, a comparable picture emerged. Here I looked at the top 10% of the NFFC - the highest-scoring 32 teams of the 322 overall competitors.

	LT	LJ	MVP	Other
# Teams in Top 10%	14	4	0	14
% of Top 10% w/player	44%	13%	0%	44%

As you can see, 14 of the 32 managed to amass a very high score despite having none of the big three rostered. Only four squads led by Johnson ranked in the top 10%.

Again, LT was “The Man”, also heading up the rosters of 14 of the 32 overall leaders, including all six of the top scorers and nine of the 11 highest-scoring teams in the 330-team NFFC.

As in the league results, those who “unluckily” drew the reigning MVP were shut out completely. That’s right. Not one team that took Alexander was able to mount enough of a recovery to rank in the top ten percent of the NFFC.

Needless to say, I didn’t have the stomach to look where those of us who selected Lamont Jordan in the first round, for example, fared. Actually, I know about where we ended up, and it isn’t pretty.

LT’s dominance has led to a group of very unsettled NFFC owners making considerable noise about changing the way draft picks are chosen. Yet, none of that mitigates the gap between this one superstar player and the rest of the pack – hopefully an anomaly that we will not see again anytime soon – unless I get LT next season and he repeats, that is!

Now, I may not be popular for saying it, but this “LT or bust” situation illustrates why I prefer the marathon of fantasy baseball with more room to maneuver – additional FAAB weeks and larger rosters - over the more-restricted structure of fantasy football's series of weekly head-to-head sprints.

I challenge you to demonstrate a correlation between the draft of a single player to league and overall results to this degree in any major fantasy baseball competition.

Simply put, if you had LT in the 2006 NFFC, you had a decent chance. If you didn’t, you probably didn’t. That just isn’t my cup of tea.

Addendum

I know someone is going to challenge me on my comparison between baseball and football. After all, the player pools are different sizes, rosters and line-ups are not the same sizes and have different construction, the seasons are of different lengths, and most importantly, draft dynamics are different.

By the use of the word “different” four times in the previous sentence, I acknowledge this is not entirely an apples-to-apples comparison. Still, I went ahead and looked at the 2006 NFBC in a similar manner to the NFFC analysis above and even I was startled by what I learned.

The top three players in terms of average draft position (ADP) in the 2006 NFBC were Alex Rodriguez (1.12), Albert Pujols (1.88) and Vladimir Guerrero (3.44).

All played pretty much the entire season and had decent campaigns, though only Pujols had what might be considered an above-average year given the high standards established by these players.

Even so, having one of these guys in 2006 was the equivalent of the plague – “the anti-LT” - in terms of winning.

Of the 33 teams representing the top 10% of the NFBC in points, 29 of them had neither A-Rod, nor Pujols, nor Vlad on their 2006 roster! In fact, only one team in the top 20 had any one of the three.

League winners were in the same boat, only worse. Only one of the 22 NFBC league champions in 2006 had one of the top three ADP players.

Bottom line, I believe that I have a lot more control over the eventual outcome of my baseball teams than my football entries. I have always felt it, but never had as good of an example to illustrate my point as this.

Granted, it was a small sample size of a single season, but for this writer/fantasy player, I am more than ready for baseball season to begin!

Come to think of it, LT isn’t considering taking up baseball, is he?

Looking backward and forward

There are far too many names to list here, but here is a link to all the regular season NFFC league winners ($5000) plus highest ($2500) and second-most points ($500) scored in each.

http://nffcboards.stats.com/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=1;t=001649

In addition, Jules McLean’s Pimpin Trigger Jr. team from the Las Vegas 2 League finished first in the overall standings after the regular season with 2,126.05 points.

What is most amazing is Jules’ margin of victory. The second-place team was 238 points behind! For winning, she receives a free entry into the 2007 NFFC, but I wonder if they shouldn’t name the competition after her. What total dominance!

Congratulations to all the teams that finished in the money during the regular season and good luck in the playoffs, whether in the Championship or Consolation Rounds!

Brian Walton’s work can also be seen daily at stlcardinals.scout.com.