The Sure Thing. Okay, it’s a silly title for an article, but this piece is about when to draft fantasy quarterbacks. I figure by now you’re either in the playoffs or you’re not. So I’m starting to look forward. Conventional fantasy wisdom on drafting a QB is wait until the middle rounds of your draft. But this has been a crazy year for the quarterback position. Rex Grossman, an undrafted free agent in most leagues, was great early. Now he’s a bum. Tony Romo started the year on the bench, and now he’s the hottest thing in fantasy. Lately, Vince Young, who also wasn’t drafted and was not supposed to be worth anything this year, looks like he has arrived ahead of schedule And suddenly Jeff Garcia looks like he could help some teams in the fantasy playoffs. Crazy. All of this points out that there is almost no consistency with fantasy quarterbacks. And when it comes draft time next year, I will be waiting until the late rounds to draft a QB. Why bother when you can pick up someone decent on waivers? Of course there is one glaring exception to this no consistency problem. There is Peyton Manning. Did you ever see the movie “The Sure Thing” with John Cusack? It’s about this guy in college who is still a virgin. His buddy at school in California promises him that if he comes out for spring break, he has a “sure thing” lined up for him. Nicolette Sheridan plays the sure thing that is willing to have sex with Cusack. Well, Peyton Manning is the NFL version of the sure thing. While the rest of the quarterbacks in the NFL get hurt or suffer from up and down years, Peyton Manning is a lock to finish first or second in points among fantasy QB’s. Every year. So what does that mean? It means it’s time to stop laughing at the guy who drafts Peyton Manning in the late first or early second rounds. In my NFFC league, Peyton was drafted with the third pick in the second round, or number 17 overall. That guy is laughing all the way to the playoffs in our league. And if you look at the last three years of fantasy statistics, Peyton has been first or second in quarterback points all three years. He also plays every game, unless his team clinches home field advantage too soon. So he not only produces, but he is incredibly consistent and reliable. Think about some of the first round busts this year. We all chose guys like Lamont Jordan, Cadillac Williams, Clinton Portis and Edgerrin James. When it comes to a first round pick, I want as close to a John Cusack sure thing as I can get. Peyton Manning is a sure thing. So next year, I’ll either draft the older Manning, or I’ll wait until the late rounds and work the waiver wire. By the way, the best value in our league was Drew Brees, selected in round 12. Brees is currently the second highest ranked fantasy QB. He was a much better value then Carson Palmer who was chosen in the fourth round and is currently the fifth ranked fantasy QB this year. In case you’re curious, here are the QB rankings from the last three years. 2006 Top 5 through Week 13: 1. Peyton Manning 2. Drew Brees 3. Michael Vick 4. Donovan McNabb (out for season – hurt in Week 11) 5. Carson Palmer 6. Marc Bulger 7. Tom Brady 8. Philip Rivers 9. Eli Manning 10. Brett Favre 2005 Full Season Top 10: 1. Carson Palmer 2. Peyton Manning 3.Tom Brady 4. Matt Hasselbeck 5.Eli Manning 6.Jake Plummer 7.Drew Brees 8.Kerry Collins 9.Trent Green 10. Drew Bledsoe 2004 Full Season Top10: 1. Peyton Manning 2. Daunte Culpepper 3. Donovan McNabb 4. Brett Favre 5. Trent Green 6. Drew Brees 7. Jake Delhomme 8. Jake Plummer 9. Aaron Brooks 10. Tom Brady.
Planning For The NFFC Playoffs – The benefit of parity is that no one in the AFC is running away with home field advantage in Week 13. So unlike last year when fantasy players had to worry about whether Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and the gang would play in the last two to three weeks of the season, this year the Colts find themselves tied with the Chargers at 10-2. With the Ravens and Patriots only one game back, it looks like a good bet that AFC fantasy starters will be playing through at least Week 16. Over in the NFC, it looks like the Bears could have home field locked up in a couple of weeks. They currently have a two-game cushion with four to play. But honestly, is anyone really counting on any Bears offensive player at this point. Sure, Cedric Benson looked okay this week. But with the way Rex Grossman is playing, can you really depend on any Bears during the playoffs? And yes Lovie, I know the team is 10-2. Now the Bears defense is another matter. For Week 16, consider the Cleveland Browns defense versus the Tampa Bay Bucs. And in Week 17, those same Browns finish up against the Texans. So if you’ve got the Bears, you might want to quickly pick up the Browns, just in case Chicago decides to rest Brian Urlacher and some of their other starters. Thanks for reading this season and good luck in the playoffs.
Lori Rubinson co-hosts a sports talk radio show in New Jersey. You can tune in Monday through Friday from 5-7 pm EST by visiting www.wctcam.com.