Each week, the Crystal Ball sets out one player at each position that you should be starting but might not have thought of, and one player that you shouldn't be starting who you just might be counting on.
QUARTERBACK
Philip Rivers, Chargers (YES!): I know. You're still thinking about eleven pass attempts in week one. And you're thinking about the possibility that Marty is going to have two thousand yard rushers for the second time in his career. What people don't remember about Marty-ball is what happened after Kevin Mack and Ernest Byner ran for one thousand yards in 1985. The Browns never had another thousand yard rusher under Marty, because from then on he focused on Bernie Kosar. That's exactly what's starting to happen with Rivers.
Byron Leftwich, Jaguars (NO!): Make no mistake. Leftwich, when healthy, is a very good fantasy quarterback, and has been for over a year. And this is a great matchup against the worst pass defense in the league. However, no team in the league does a better job or grinding out games against bad teams with the run, and Leftwich is suddenly questionable.
RUNNING BACK
Fred Taylor, Jaguars (YES!): Maurice Jones-Drew is rightly a pretty popular fantasy player right now, but Taylor is still the starter in Jacksonville. And the presence of Jones-Drew seems to have released some of the historical reluctance to play Taylor in blowouts. Taylor was still chugging away late in their annihilation of the Jets two weeks ago.
Najeh Davenport, Steelers (NO!): Yes, Jerome Bettis managed to make himself a viable fantasy back in the Steelers power runner and goal line roles. Yes, Davenport had a good second game with the Steelers. But no, don't play him -- this is Willie Parker's offense, and he'll handle all he can.
WIDE RECEIVER
Chad Johnson, Bengals (YES!): All of a sudden, there are whispers that Johnson isn't even the best receiver on his team, let alone one of the best in the league. Remember that wide receiver is a streaky position that is dependent on a number of outside factors for success. If NFL defenses really believe T.J. Houshmandzadah is the Bengals primary threat, you'll see Johnson explode.
Randy Moss, Raiders (NO!): The last time I said not to start him, he promptly responded with a touchdown. Moss may be the first player in NFL history to catch a touchdown and run directly into the tunnel to the clubhouse -- and never return.
TIGHT END
Randy McMichael, Dolphins (YES!): McMichael seems to have really taken to Joey Harrington. In a tough year at tight end, he's probably in the top three right now.
Jason Witten, Cowboys (NO!): I normally preach patience with proven performers like Witten, but this has gone on just about long enough. He just isn't getting many chances, and when he does, Bledsoe seems to miss him.
DEFENSE
Arizona Cardinals (YES!): Monday night makes it hard to fathom picking the Cardinals for anything right now, but they actually have one of the better turnover defenses in the league (which is why they were ahead of the Bears to blow the lead in the first place), and they face the turnover prone (and otherwise offensively challenged) Raiders.
Cincinnati Bengals (NO!): I admit it -- I usually say to start the Bengals every week. If ever there was a week to sit them, it's this week against the Panthers, who are playing well and don't turn it over a lot.
KICKERS
Adam Vinatieri, Colts (YES!): Vinatieri should be healthy this week, and he seems to be available in a lot of leagues. This is a good kicker on a good team.
Ryan Longwell, Vikings (NO!): Prediction: the Seahawks have figured some things out over the bye week. Things that will help them beat the Vikings. Easily.