Bad clothes cleaning or money laundering puns aside, as this 2006 NFL fantasy season began, it seemed to me that this particular draft was deeper than any other – as if every prospect I had ever heard of had been snapped up by one of my 13 other competitors in my NFFC New York League 1.
With the first of 12 free agent periods this season on September 15, my theory seemed validated in one way, but not in another.
The first week, there was substantial free agent activity, with 21 players being added across the 14 teams. That represented a larger total number of players taken in NY1 than in any one of the first six weeks of the 2005 season. The year before, only 11 players were taken in the initial week of free agent bidding.
On the flip side of the coin, however, more of them were nondescript additions. Those 21 players were acquired on the average for just $41 each, compared to $137 in week one of 2005. So, in that manner, my perception was correct.
However, this quickly balanced out in subsequent weeks. Looking at the first month’s worth of transactions showed the number of players changing hands up by about 20% year on year – 71 versus 59. With the average amount spent per acquisition pretty comparable at $68 versus $71, the total amount of available league FAAB exhausted increased from 30% last year to over 34% in 2006.
While there are certainly advantages is getting more time value statistically for your team by converting that FAAB into players sooner in the season, looking at the names that fetched a lot of money early-on isn’t really all that awe-inspiring.
Here are the 17 players who drew winning bids of over $100 in the first month of the 2005 season: Frisman Jackson, Patrick Crayton, Alex Smith (TE), Terrence Murphy, Courtney Anderson, Koren Robinson, Steve Heiden, Neil Rackers, Troy Brown, David Carr, Vinny Testaverde, Amos Zeroeue, Josh McCown, Patrick Pass, Alex Smith (QB), Pittsburgh Steelers defense and Kelly Holcomb.
It is hard to see how this group of players could have been difference-makers last year. And at this point in 2006, only four of these players are even on an NY1 league roster and a number of them are no longer even in the NFL.
Will the same thing come to pass this season? It remains to be seen, but here are the 16 top purchases over the same period here in 2006: Jerricho Cotchery, Bernard Berrian, Rex Grossman, Koren Robinson (again), David Martin, Owen Daniels, Eric Johnson, Leon Washington, Charlie Frye, Troy Brown (again), Dallas Cowboys defense, Bo Scaife, Greg Lewis, New York Jets defense, Washington Redskins defense and Ben Roethlisberger.
From that 2006 list, certainly Grossman has been a great pick-up and Berrian and Cotchery have had their moments. Roethlisberger was originally drafted in the 12th round, but dropped by an impatient owner.
To me, all this is another reminder as to the importance of the draft and a confirmation of the difficulty of acquiring impact players once draft day is past.
Another interesting fact I observed when gathering this data was how bids changed over the course of the 2005 season.
The total amount of the season’s money spent was spread 30%-40%-17% over the three months, with 13% of the league’s available cash left on the table when the season ended.
The average amount of winning bids dropped each month from $71 to $67 to $55 for the final month. I guess that was a reflection of the dearth of players, the lack of bye weeks late in the season and the diminishing number of weeks remaining in which acquired players could be used.
I already felt it coming in, but after running this bit of analysis, albeit from just one league over 1-1/4 seasons, the greater importance of the draft and the lesser importance of FAAB in the NFFC has been impressed upon me.
That is in direct conflict with my view of the role of FAAB in the NFBC. With a six-month season and so many more impact players coming up from the minor leagues during a baseball season, I believe one can more easily improve one’s team in that sport compared to football.
Yet, with no trades allowed in either the NFBC or NFFC, what other levers does one have to improve his team? And if last year’s data is any indication, here in mid-October is just about the end of prime time for player acquisition.
In leagues with small numbers of reserves, this is the ideal time to pick up players dropped by others forced to add a bye-week kicker or tight end. For what are you saving all that money, anyway?
So, let’s get with it!
Brian Walton’s work can also be seen daily at stlcardinals.scout.com.
Appendix: NFFC New York League 1 FAAB Spending by Week – 2005 and 2006 YTD
|
2005 NY1 |
FAAB $ |
% Total |
# Players |
$/Player |
|
16-Sep |
1505 |
10.8% |
11 |
137 |
|
23-Sep |
610 |
4.4% |
16 |
38 |
|
30-Sep |
1360 |
9.7% |
13 |
105 |
|
7-Oct |
709 |
5.1% |
19 |
37 |
|
1st third |
4184 |
29.9% |
59 |
71 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14-Oct |
2004 |
14.3% |
19 |
105 |
|
21-Oct |
1194 |
8.5% |
19 |
63 |
|
28-Oct |
1020 |
7.3% |
22 |
46 |
|
4-Nov |
1375 |
9.8% |
24 |
57 |
|
2nd third |
5593 |
40.0% |
84 |
67 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11-Nov |
1441 |
10.3% |
17 |
85 |
|
18-Nov |
345 |
2.5% |
10 |
35 |
|
23-Nov |
16 |
0.1% |
6 |
3 |
|
2-Dec |
583 |
4.2% |
10 |
58 |
|
3rd third |
2385 |
17.0% |
43 |
55 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
total |
12162 |
86.9% |
186 |
65 |
|
unspent |
1838 |
13.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2006 NY1 |
FAAB $ |
% Total |
# Players |
$/Player |
|
15-Sep |
862 |
6.2% |
21 |
41 |
|
22-Sep |
1097 |
7.8% |
16 |
69 |
|
29-Sep |
1731 |
12.4% |
18 |
96 |
|
6-Oct |
1106 |
7.9% |
16 |
69 |
|
1st third |
4796 |
34.3% |
71 |
68 |