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Inside the Numbers > Octoberfest

October is a fun time of the year. It’s the one period on the calendar when you can watch some postseason baseball, regular season football and preseason basketball. It’s truly a great thing when you get to see all your favorite teams play on the same day. For example, as I’m writing this baseball column, I am participating in an online experts fantasy basketball draft with some of the top writers in the industry as well as wrapping up a piece on the top-10 rookies through four week of the NFL season. For a die-hard sports fan like me, it doesn’t get much better than this.
In this edition of the Inside the Numbers, I’m going to take a brief look at each of the four Division Championship Series and give my predictions on how I think it will go down. If it goes like I think (and hope), we could have a rematch of the 2000 Mets/Yankees showdown.

American League
Oakland vs. Minnesota
Tuesday 10/3 – Barry Zito (W), Johan Santana (L)
Wednesday 10/4 – Esteban Loaiza vs. Boof Bonser
Friday 10/6 – Brad Radke vs. Dan Haren
Saturday 10/7 – Carlos Silva vs. Rich Harden
Sunday 10/8 – Zito vs. Santana

The Athletics shocked the Twins Tuesday night, knocking off Cy Young favorite Johan Santana 3-2. The loss snapped a rather amazing streak for Santana, who was 16-0 in his past 23 starts at the Metrodome (the Twins had gone 23-0 in that stretch). Frank Thomas, who finished the season with 39 HR, connected for a two-run homer in the second inning and the eventual game-winner long ball in the top of the ninth before closer Huston Street closed out the ninth.

The Twins will now have to do their best to get back to Game 5 so Johan can get another crack at it. The odds have to be with Oakland at this point, with Bonser (7-6) and Silva (11-15) asked to start two of the next three. Look for Oakland to take this series in four games.

Detroit vs. New York Yankees
Tuesday 10/3 – Chien-Ming Wang (W), Nate Robertson (L)
Wednesday 10/4 – Justin Verlander vs. Mike Mussina
Friday 10/6 – Randy Johnson vs. Kenny Rogers
Saturday 10/7 – Jaret Wright vs. Jeremy Bonderman
Sunday 10/8 – Robertson vs. Wang

Thanks to a 5-for-5 performance from MVP hopeful Derek Jeter, the Yankees topped the Tigers 8-4 in the Bronx on Tuesday night, jumping out to a 1-0 lead in the ALDS. New York’s lineup is bottomline scary now. Let’s face it, when Robinson Cano, who had 77 hits and 51 RBI in his final 53 games of the year, is batting in the nine-hole, you’re stacked. Detroit manager Jim Leyland called them “Murderer’s Row with Cano.” In fact, every single starter has been to at least one All-Star game.

The next two games feature four 15-game winners, including the Big Unit vs. the Gambler in Game 3, a matchup of two 40-year-old southpaws. Detroit faded considerably at the end of the season and have a very daunting task taking on the mighty Yankees. This series isn’t going to be very close in my mind – Yankees in three.

National League
St. Louis vs. San Diego
Tuesday 10/3 Game 1 – Chris Carpenter (W), Jake Peavy (L)
Thursday 10/5 Game 2 – Jeff Weaver vs. David Wells
Saturday 10/7 Game 3 – Chris Young vs. Jeff Suppan
Sunday 10/8 Game 4 – Woody Williams vs. Jason Marquis
Monday 10/9 Game 5 – Carpenter vs. Peavy

Albert Pujols
connected for a two-run homer against starter Jake Peavy Tuesday afternoon, powering the Cardinals to a 5-2 victory in the NLDS opener. The MVP candidate went 2-for-4 and Cy Young possibility Chris Carpenter allowed just one run and five hits in 6 1/3 innings to propel St. Louis to a 1-0 series lead. After they almost blew an eight-game lead with about 11 days left in the regular season to Houston, the Cardinals looked dominating in the opener.

I think the Cardinals are just too strong for the Padres. My prediction – St. Louis in four games.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets

Wednesday 10/4 – Derek Lowe vs. John Maine (Orlando Hernandez questionable with calf injury)
Thursday 10/5 – Greg Maddux vs. Tom Glavine
Saturday 10/7 – Steve Trachsel vs. Hong-Chih Kuo
Sunday 10/8 – TBA vs. Brad Penny
Monday 10/9 – Lowe vs. TBA

Orlando Hernandez
injured his calf during warm-ups Tuesday and is questionable for the opener on Wednesday. It sounds like Game 4 starter John Maine will move up in the rotation and take the ball on Wednesday. El Duque’s status is uncertain afterwards. While Atlanta is out of the postseason for the first time in 14 years, former Braves Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine will match up against each other in the series’ second game in a duel for the ages.

The Mets have been head-and-shoulders above the rest of the NL all season long, but the absence of ace Pedro Martinez (three Cy Young awards) and El Duque (9-3 in the postseason) definitely hurts them. This series should be a fun one. I see the Mets taking out L.A. in five games.

Predictions
NYM 3 – LA 2
STL 3 – SD 1
NYY 3 – DET 0
OAK 3 – MIN 1

NYM 4 – STL 2
NYY 4 – OAK 1

NYY 4 – NYM 3 – rematch of the Subway Series

In next week’s Inside the Numbers, we’ll break down the best players of the second half of the season.

Questions, comments, quandaries? You can contact me at MATT@CREATiVESPORTS.com


posted @ Wednesday, October 04, 2006 12:34 AM by Matt Lawrence

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