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Inside the Numbers > The Humidor that Changed Baseball

Coors Field used to be a haven for home run trots, inflated ERA’s and 9-8 ballgames. When teams would have to travel to Colorado, it used to mean two things for fantasy owners; bench your pitchers and expect big weeks from your sluggers. But, now thanks to something as trivial as where the team stores their baseballs, that is definitely no longer the case.

The Rockies have been keeping their baseballs in a storage room that keeps its humidity at 40 percent, while most of the mile high-city is at 10 percent or less. This step has curiously turned Coors Field, which is over 5,000 feet above sea level, into a pitcher’s park. The numbers have been evident right from the start. The previous seven years, the Rockies and their opponents combined for 15.1 runs per contest during the month of April. This April, the two teams scored just 9.8 per game. That’s dramatic.

According to ESPN’s Park Factor, the Rockies were the only team in the game to finish in the top-five each of the past five seasons in biggest disparity of runs scored at home, as opposed to the road. In fact, Colorado finished No. 1 in that stat in 2002, 2004 and 2005. This year, they rank No. 14, right in the middle of the pack.

Last season, the Rockies pitching staff finished the year with a league-worst 5.13 ERA. But now that they store their baseballs in humidity-and-temperature-controlled rooms, their ERA is down over a full run per game (currently at 4.10). Guys like Jeff Francis (9-9, 3.44), Jason Jennings (7-9, 3.44) and Aaron Cook (8-10, 3.87) are all a sudden bona fide options in any fantasy formats. Amazingly enough, they also lead the NL with eight team-shutouts.

As early back as 2004, the Rockies had three players with at least 30 home runs (Jeremy Burnitz 37, Vinny Castilla 35, Todd Helton 35), but haven’t had a player eclipse that mark in each of the past two seasons. Matt Holliday leads the club with 22 at this time - and sadly enough, that is more than other Rocky hit last year. Back in 1999, Colorado astonishingly had four players bash at least 30 long balls, and in 1997 they accomplished another unheard of feat when five players hit at least 25 home runs, including three with over 40.

This franchise is only its eighth season, but Andres Galarraga, Larry Walker and Todd Helton have already notched batting titles with a CR on their hat, while Galarraga, Helton, Dante Bichette, Preston Wilson and Vinny Castilla have each led the National League in RBI. Those days are now in the rear view mirror it seems. After being the unquestioned No.1 park for hitters for years, Colorado currently ranks 18th through four-plus months, and deserves to be considered a pitcher’s park now.

Brewers' Jeff Cirillo has recently been outspoken about the humidor, calling it an unfair advantage. "You wouldn't think that they'd be cheating. They are," Cirillo said. "The balls are not the same. Hey, I'm not the first one to complain about it." Interestingly enough, Cirillo hit a career-high 17 home runs as a member of the Rockies in 2001. Since then, he’s hit just 15 homers in five seasons, spanning 1,187 at-bats. "They're a mile up, every day," he said. "That's a distinct advantage in the fact they're used to playing in altitude and we're not. Or, say they get behind by a bunch of runs in a game. Who's to say that can't break out the non-humidor balls?"

That’s a fair point from the ex-Rocky, but major league baseball has deemed the humidor legal, and Colorado plans to continue to regulate their baseballs.

The point? Don’t fear Coors Field anymore from a pitching perspective. Even the erratic Byung-Hyun Kim has shown signs of having some value this year, going 7-7 from the No. 5 spot. From a hitter’s perspective, this has been quite damaging to many sluggers. Helton used to be a top-five fantasy player, this year he’s not even in the top-100 in home runs (12), and guys like David Ross (14), Xavier Nady (14) and Michael Cuddyer (16) have gone deep more. It’s time you’ve changed your perception of the Mile High city.

Cy Young Candidates (stats as of Sat., 8/13)
American League
Starters
Roy Halladay, TOR 14-3, 3.23 ERA, 99 K
Justin Verlander, DET 14-5, 2.95 ERA, 96 K
Johan Santana, MIN 13-5, 3.24 ERA, 178 K
Francisco Liriano, MIN 12-3, 2.19 ERA, 142 K
Mike Mussina, NYY 13-5, 3.50 ERA, 142 K
Curt Schilling, BOS 14-5, 3.89 ERA, 149 K

Relievers
Jonathan Papelbon, BOS 3-2, 0.93 ERA, 30-for-35 S
Mariano Rivera, NYY 4-5, 1.89 ERA, 30-for-33 S
Joe Nathan, MIN 6-0, 1.47 ERA, 25-for-26 S

The Twins have arguably three of the top-nine Cy Young candidates in the AL this season, but got dealt a vicious blow when rookie phenom Francisco Liriano suffered an injured left forearm, and could be out for the rest of the season. Fittingly enough, he went down against the Tigers, too. In four games against Detroit, he went 0-2 with an 8.62 ERA. Against the rest of the majors, he went 12-1 with a microscopic 1.11 ERA. Fellow rookies Verlander and Papelbon are legitimate candidates to pick up the award, as well. Verlander just snapped a seven-game win streak and Papelbon’s ERA has never been over 1.00 this year.

National League
Starters
Brandon Webb, ARI 13-4, 2.74 ERA, 125 K
Carlos Zambrano, CHC 13-5, 3.54 ERA, 162 K
Aaron Harang, CIN 12-7, 3.54 ERA, 162 K
Tom Glavine, NYM 12-5, 3.92 ERA, 100 K
Brad Penny, LA 12-5, 3.39 ERA, 103 K

Relievers:
Billy Wagner, NYM 3-2, 2.53 ERA, 70 K, 26-for-31 S
Trevor Hoffman, SD 0-2, 2.27 ERA, 31K, 30-for-34 S

With the exception of Cardinals’ Jason Marquis, each pitcher that has won a dozen games or more in the senior circuit is a legitimate Cy Young finalist. Zambrano and Harang lead the league in strikeouts (162), Webb has the best ERA (2.74), Penny started the All-Star Game and 40-year-old Glavine needs just one more victory to match a personal best during his four year-run with the Mets. I personally like Zambrano for the award, but the final six weeks of the season will be very telling.

August major league debuts
8/9 C Brandon Harper, WAS vs. FLA 1-for-2
8/8 RP Chris Schroder, WAS vs. FLA 1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 K
8/6 2B Alberto Callaspo, ARI vs. HOU 0-for-1
8/6 RP Winston Abreu, BAL vs. NYY 2/3 IP, O H, O ER, 1 K
8/5 RP Jose Veras, NYY @ BAL 2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER
8/3 SP Juan Mateo, CHC vs. ARI 5 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 K, W
8/1 SS Ben Zobrist, TB vs. DET 0-for-4
8/1 RP Josh Sharpless, PIT vs. ATL 1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER

posted @ Sunday, August 13, 2006 5:54 PM by Matt Lawrence

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