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Mr. Replay > We're All on the Same Team Here

Anyone who has been reading my articles for a while knows that I occasionally get a little paranoid. One of the topics I'm most paranoid about is Major League Baseball's obsession with hyping the rivalry between the Yankees and Red Sox.

I always get especially concerned when I hear trade rumors that simply don't make sense for the other team. In recent years, there have been a number of deals that have made me wonder whether the whole league is operating just for the benefit of these two teams.

This offseason, I wrote about how I didn't think the rumored deal sending Coco Crisp from the Indians to the Red Sox didn't make sense for the Indians and therefore must be a rumor. Obviously, I was wrong there. That just fueled my paranoia. With Johnny Damon now in New York, what could be better for the rivalry than getting a young, exciting player named after a breakfast cereal to fill Damon's position? So my paranoid theory is this: perhaps there are times when the league encourages some of the other teams to do things that are supportive of the rivalry -- at times to the detriment of the other team.

I had the same thought last week when the Reds dealt Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez, and Ryan Wagner, to name three, to the Nationals in exchange for two middle relievers and an aging shortstop who can't hit. The Reds actually defended the trade as trying to win right now by bolstering the bullpen. My guess is that either Austin Kearns or Felipe Lopez could have brought in more individually if the idea really was to help the bullpen.

Of course, this does have very real fantasy implications. Kearns will continue to play every day, either in center or right depending on the health of Jose Guillen. Kearns presumably will move to a corner spot by next year, as it is highly likely that at least one of Alfonso Soriano and Jose Guillen will move on before Opening Day. That makes sense, because Kearns probably isn't a great fit in center in RFK. Nonetheless, Kearns' value takes a bit of a hit, because he moves from a hitters park to a pitchers park, and he won't be hitting in as deep a lineup (particularly if Soriano is traded).

Lopez's value drops a little bit as well. Frank Robinson will probably let him run a lot, but it's hard to run as much as the Reds were running. If the Nats hold Soriano, Lopez will continue to produce a lot of runs; however, if Soriano leaves, Lopez may find that he isn't scoring nearly as much. That's very important to Lopez's value this year, because he hasn't hit nearly as well as he did last year. Also, in Cincinnati, Lopez was within one hot streak of getting his power numbers in line with last year. That's less likely in RFK.

Royce Clayton headed to Cincinnati in the trade, ostensibly to take Lopez's position in the short term. Clayton is a better defensive player than Lopez. He's also notoriously streaky, and he's been on a very good streak lately. Nonetheless, he isn't the type of hitter who's numbers will improve a lot in a friendlier ballpark. He's also much more prone to losing the job than Lopez would've been. There is a decent possibility that the Reds will want to look at Brandon Phillips at shortstop at some point later this summer, which would send Clayton to the bench.

In right field in place of Kearns, Chris Denorfia gets the first shot. Denorfia is a little long in the tooth for a prospect, but he really came on in 2005, hitting well at two levels before making a reasonably successful major league debut. Both of the departures also clear some more time for Ryan Freel, who the Reds want in the lineup as much as possible.

Despite the Reds' statements about the importance of the trade for the bullpen, the bullpen moves here don't really have a lot of fantasy implications unless you're in an extremely deep league. The Reds closer role belongs to Eddie Guardado for now, and that move allowed Todd Coffey to slide back into a more comfortable setup role.

So why did the Reds do this again? Maybe it's because the league wanted them to help bolster a new franchise.

posted @ Friday, July 21, 2006 8:32 AM by John Dunfee

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