A couple of weeks ago, we did a series preview of the Reds-Cardinals series in which we discussed the suddenly interesting state of the National League Central.
Spikes Up takes that a step further this week with Volume Three of our
Divisional Report series.
OVERVIEW
What a difference a year has made for the NL Central. This time last season, just two of six teams were over .500 as the division was competing with the American League Central as the worst in baseball. The Cardinals, as expected, were the head of the class, while an improved Brewer squad was hanging in there at 16-14. The Cubs and Astros at the time were among the biggest disappointments in baseball.
Today, the NL Central could make a case as the best division in the majors, and it would be no contest if they could just find a way to make someone else take the Pirates. The Reds and Astros are vastly better, while the Cardinals, despite also showing improvements (including a franchise record number of wins in April), suddenly have company at the top.
Compared to 2005, Milwaukee is spinning its wheels right now, as are the Cubs (although they seem to be dropping fast of late), while Pittsburgh has been simply rancid – surprisingly so, given their abundance of young talent. It’s hard to see them not getting better as the season progresses, as should the Cubs once they start getting healthier. By season’s end, it’s not inconceivable that five of the six division residents will be playing .500 ball or better. It’s also a good bet, the way things are shaping up, that the NL Wild Card is coming out of the Central this season.
Cincinnati Reds
Skinny: After sweeping their mini series with the Cardinals two weeks ago, the Reds had issued a statement of arrival. With a 19-8 record to start the season, they were the top team in baseball, and well on their way to snapping a streak of five straight losing seasons – the team’s worst such slump in 50 years.
The Reds have sputtered somewhat since then, dropping four of their past seven. And it’s clear that if they want to break an 11-year playoff drought this season, it’s pitching that will carry them or bury them. So far, the staff has exceeded expectations, and only the Mets have a better K/BB ratio among NL teams.
Cincy’s attack is steady and patient. The lineup has drawn more walks than any other National League team.
Fantasy Stud: Bronson Arroyo, SP. The pre-season Wily Mo Pena-for-Arroyo deal has been a steal for Cincy so far. CREATiVESPORTS.com’s Reds’ expert, Shawn Weaver, says Arroyo is looking very good in the early going. He expects Arroyo’s ERA (2.36) to rise, but says that he’ll pile up the wins with the Reds’ offensive support. If he stays healthy, Arroyo should be a cinch to best the career-high 14 wins he racked up for Boston last year. He’s currently 5-1.
Fantasy Dud: Ken Griffey, Jr., OF. He’s had just 31 at-bats all year and it’s not as if he was lighting it up (849 OPS) before going down. Weaver says Griffey looks fragile again, taking a long time to come back from an injury that was supposed to be minor. He finally was activated on Thursday, but this is clearly not what his Fantasy owners were hoping for.
Sleeper: Todd Coffey, RP. He’s been lights out in a set-up role, and Weaver says it’s just a matter of time before he’s installed as the Reds’ closer.
On the Horizon: Chris Denorfia, OF. Denorfia has come a long way since being selected in the 19th round in 2002 by the Reds. The 25-year-old has already seen a couple of tours of duty with Cincy this season, the latest when Cody Ross went down. He hasn’t exactly been overmatched, going 4-for-8 in his limited action. Denorfia has nothing left to prove at Triple-A, ranking sixth in the International League in batting, seventh in OPS (915) and 10th in slugging. He also has some speed, with 65 steals in his first four minor league seasons. With Griffey Jr. a constant injury risk and substandard back-up centerfielder Quinton McCracken the only roadblock, it’s just a matter of time before Denorfia cracks the 25-man roster for good.
Mini Spikes: Weaver says Adam Dunn continues to be a low-average, high-walks slugger. He’s as streaky as they come, but capable of hitting a bushel full of homers at any time, he says…Austin Kearns is finally breaking out and delivering the .300+ average with good power that we’ve all been waiting for, Weaver says… He says Edwin Encarnacion is emerging as a top young player. Weaver expects him to have rough spots, but says he looks good…Weaver says Ryan Freel is having problems hitting for average this season…He says Aaron Harang will rack up some wins this year.
St. Louis Cardinals
Skinny: The Cards have a slightly better record than they did a year ago, but instead of being in first place with a two and a half game lead, they find themselves in second, one game back. Such is the improvement in the division this season. St. Louis looks like it’s starting to roll, with three straight wins and a 6-4 record over its past 10.
St. Louis’ attack – Albert Pujols notwithstanding – has been middling. While the Cards are doing a great job of putting the ball in play (just three teams in the majors have fewer strikeouts) and are showing excellent strike zone judgment as a team (fourth in the majors in BB/K ratio), they rank near the bottom in doubles. Part of that is the new Busch Stadium, which is playing about neutral as far as scoring goes, but is near the bottom in terms of doubles as a ballpark. It’s early in the stadium’s history, so this may not mean anything, but it’s food for thought.
The pitching staff has been carrying the team. The staff has the second-best ERA in the Show (best in the NL) by holding opponents to a .244 mark (fourth lowest in majors). Don’t be expecting big K numbers, however. The Cards’ pitchers rank fourth worst in Ks per nine innings.
Fantasy Stud: Albert Pujols, 1B. This is a slam dunk. He’s the biggest stud in all of Fantasy baseball right now. Let’s see, Pujols leads the NL in runs, homers, RBI, SLG and OPS. He’s pretty well single-handedly carrying the St. Louis offense right now. Yeah, I guess he’s pretty good.
Fantasy Dud: Yadier Molina, C. You probably weren’t expecting him to hit the cover off the ball, but it would have been reasonable to hope for him to be able to hit his way out of a wet paper bag. He’s getting on base just 22 percent of the time, and if you’re relying on Molina as your starting Fantasy catcher, your team is in serious trouble.
Sleeper: Juan Encarnacion, OF. He’s starting to heat up with a five-game hitting streak and June is his favorite month. But beware that he’s not a great second-half performer. If you can parlay a June hot streak into a deal, do it.
On the Horizon: Starter Anthony Reyes is probably the best prospect the Cards have at Triple-A, and it was a bit of a surprise when Sidney Ponson beat him out for the fifth starter job. But the player who might best be in a position to help St. Louis right now is veteran Brian Daubach. Not only could he supply backup to Pujols at first, but he could handle the everyday job in left field once John Rodriguez and Hector Luna realize they are not as good as they’re playing currently. Daubach leads the Pacific League in OBP (.480), is fourth in OPS (1006) and seventh in batting (.346). At the very least, Daubach could add depth to an attack that hasn’t been firing on all cylinders.
Mini Spikes: Jim Edmonds launched his fifth homer Friday night. The Cards will need him to get his bat going to take over control of the division…Mark Mulder has won all three of his career starts against Arizona, the first two of which were shutouts…David Eckstein has racked up eight hits in the past four games and is now up to .315 for the season.
Houston Astros
Skinny: The ‘Stros have gotten out of the gates very quickly compared to 2005, when they sat dead last in the division in mid-May. It’s a remarkable improvement considering Roger Clemens is no longer in the fold (for now), Andy Pettitte is struggling and their closer, Brad Lidge, looks like he still hasn’t recovered from blowing some huge saves in the playoffs last season.
Of concern is the team’s shoddy road record. While Houston appears almost unbeatable at home (15-4), it has an unacceptable 6-11 mark on the road. The Astros, currently in third place in the division, two games back, have been slumping a bit lately after a blazing start, but appear to have righting the ship, winning their past two games.
Both Houston’s pitching and offense are middle of the road, although the team’s pitching staff is struggling in some areas. The Astros are tied for seventh in runs scored (185) and tied for eighth in homers (46), but are just tied for 24th in steals. On the mound, they have surrendered 46 homers, the fifth-most in baseball and have given up the seventh-most total bases and eighth-most doubles.
Fantasy Stud: Lance Berkman, 1B. CREATiVESPORTS.com’s Astros’ expert, Bill Gilbert, expects Berkman to be among the league leaders in all three triple crown categories. He’s pretty close now, ranking fifth in homers and second in RBI (39), but at “just” .319 he’s a bit outside the NL top 10. Note that Berkman had to leave Friday’s game with tightness in his hamstring and he’s listed as day-to-day.
Fantasy Dud: Brad Lidge, RP. Expected to be a top five reliever, Lidge has burned owners with his sky high ERA and WHIP. Gilbert says the biggest concern is the loss of command of both his fastball and slider. Many of the saves he’s earned have been shaky and he finds himself temporarily removed from the closer role. Gilbert says Lidge still has his good stuff and should be able to correct the flaws that have thrown him off track.
Sleeper: Jason Lane, OF. Off to a sluggish start, with a BA under .210, Lane has posted a .314 mark after the all-star break the past three seasons compared to just .231 before the break.
On the Horizon: Charlton Jimerson, OF. The 26-year-old speedster is dominating at Triple-A Round Rock, ranking in the PCL top five in runs, hits, doubles, triples, total bases and stolen bases. Of concern, however, is his strike zone judgment (six walks, 56 strikeouts). Should Lane continue to scuffle, Jimerson could get a chance to show what he can do in the bigs.
Mini Spikes: Gilbert says that Pettitte is having command troubles, but he expects him to come around…Wandy Rodriguez and Taylor Buchholz (despite one bad start) have both been pleasant surprises, Gilbert says…He says Brad Ausmus is enjoying one of his finest seasons…Morgan Ensberg got off to a fast start, but has cooled, Gilbert says…He says Preston Wilson is providing some power, but is striking out an alarming rate…Gilbert is impressed with Adam Everett’s exceptional defence to date (no errors), but not so much with his offense…Craig Biggio, Gilbert adds, is off to a solid start, but could wear down in August and September.
Milwaukee Brewers
Skinny: The Brewers are universally believed to have a bright future, but they’ve taken a slight step back so far this season. A year ago, they were over .500 and in second place. Today, they are a game under .500 and sit in fourth place, six games off the pace. A recent 3-7 skid has helped drop Milwaukee behind the pack.
At .274, the Brewers are among the top hitting teams in the league and they are tied for first in the majors with 56 homers, but the pitching has been mediocre so far, and will need to step up if this team hopes to finish over .500.
Fantasy Stud: Carlos Lee, OF. Lee continues to mash with the best of them. His 15 homers rank second in the NL and he’s also second in the league in both slugging (.674) and OPS (1075). He’s even fourth in runs (30) and fifth in ribbies for good measure.
Fantasy Dud: Ben Sheets. He was expected to be a top 10 starter, but has failed miserably so far in 2006 with a 6.64 ERA through four starts. And now he’s on the DL again.
Sleeper: Brady Clark, OF. Coming off a breakout 2005, Clark was in a fog to begin the season. But he’s batting .294 this month and is starting to rediscover the stroke that led him to a .306 mark last year.
On the Horizon: Luckily for the Brewers, there’s plenty of talent that’s thriving at the Triple-A level currently. Catcher Mike Rivera, for instance, is leading the PCL in batting (.380), slugging (.630) and OPS, while placing seventh in OBP. He’s now 29 and hasn’t seen any major league action since 2003, so he isn’t exactly a prospect any more, but Rivera could help a big league team right. And with back-up catcher Chad Moeller continuing to scuffle at .216, Rivera may get his shot.
Mini Spikes: The team may not be winning, but they are putting behinds in the seats. Saturday night Milwaukee drew the second largest crowd in Miller Park history…Closer Derrick Turnbow has been brilliant again this year, but he suffered his first loss of the year Saturday on his own bobblehead night. He had only lost one other game in his major league career and is now 9-2 lifetime…Rickie Weeks is heating up, going 5-for-13 during a four-game hit streak that’s pushed his BA up to .280. Perhaps his power game is starting to come around too as he launched his second long ball of the season Saturday.
Chicago Cubs
Skinny: Things have gone from bad to worse for the 2006 Cubs. They got out of the gates slowly last season, and sat in third place, five and a half games out a year ago. Today, they are in fifth, five and a half games out of third and have now lost 14 of their past 16.
Injuries are decimating the team again. Kerry Wood, Mark Prior and Derrek Lee have all been lost so far. Only the woeful Royals have scored less runs than the Cubbies in all of baseball and the pitching has been mediocre.
Fantasy Stud: Greg Maddux, SP. The old warrior is not ready to call it a day quite yet. Maddux’s renaissance – which includes five wins (second in the NL) and a stellar 1.11 WHIP (ninth in the league) – has been particular vital for a Cubs squad missing both Wood and Prior.
Fantasy Dud: Derrek Lee, 1B. He started off well enough, but when Lee broke a pair of bones above his right wrist in mid-April, he really sucked the life out of any Fantasy team that was expecting him to be its anchor. He won’t be back until sometime next month at the earliest and it’s a devastating loss for the Cubs and your team alike.
Sleeper: Juan Pierre, OF. He’s having another solid speed season, with a dozen thefts, but surely you were banking on a BA better than .231. Pierre has hit .321 after the break the past three seasons, so don’t throw in the towel just yet.
On the Horizon: Les Walrond, SP. He’s no spring chicken at 29, but the lefty could help the Cubs, especially considering the recent struggles of Rich Hill, Glendon Rusch and Angel Guzman. Walrond, who last appeared in the majors in 2003, is 4-1 for Triple-A Iowa, with a 2.25 ERA. He’s given up just 36 hits over 40 IP with a 1.35 WHIP, ranking second in the PCL in ERA and tied for sixth in wins.
Mini Spikes: The Cubs just got swept by the Padres at Wrigley for the first time since 1992… Michael Barrett hit his first double since April 25. It was just his fifth two-bagger of the year after back-to-back 32-double seasons…Hill, in his third start of the year, actually showed some modest improvement, but lost again and is now 0-3. He made four starts for the Cubs last season.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Skinny: The Pirates appeared to be making some progress last season, and a year ago they were in fourth place at 15-19, six games out. Today, Pittsburgh is mired in the cellar having won just 11 games. The Buccos are four and a half games out of fifth place in the division. It could be a long summer in Steel City.
The Pirates have the worst-hitting team in the National League and less runs (144) than all but two major league teams. Their collective ERA of almost 5.00 is the sixth worst in the majors.
Despite an impressive collection of young talent, Pittsburgh seems even further away from contention than it has in some time.
Fantasy Stud: Jason Bay, OF. Somebody has to be slotted in here. And despite performing well below expectations, Bay is still the best Pirate to own at this point. And that’s just plain sad.
Fantasy Dud: No one, other than Bay or perhaps Zach Duke, had great expectations heaped upon them heading into this season, but Oliver Perez has been downright pathetic. He’s 1-5, 7.71 and has walked more batters than he’s whiffed. His last start was skipped because of a rainout and this could be a sign of things to come.
Sleeper: I may be in the minority, but I still believe Chris Duffy has the pedigree to be an excellent top-of-the-order hitter. He had been showing some signs of life lately although a blister has slowed him. Watch for Duffy to improve as the season progresses; he looked tremendous with the Pirates last season.
On the Horizon: There’s plenty of solid pitching waiting for the call at Triple-A Indianapolis. Notable among these arms is prospect Tom Gorzelanny. The 23-year-old lefty was the Pirates’ second round pick in 2003 and was named as Indy’s opening day starter this year. He’s lived up to the billing so far, leading the International League in strikeouts with 49 through 44.2 IP. Expect him to get a look very soon with starters Perez and Ian Snell scuffling badly.
Mini Spikes: Jeromy Burnitz hasn’t had a multi-hit game since April 29. He’s batting .079 in May…Ronny Paulino has a six-game hitting streak and is now batting .299 for the year…Jose Castillo has hit safely in five straight games. He’s up to .256.
NEXT: Spikes Up returns next week, May 22. We’ll take a look at some rumors circulating around the Show in our Word on the Street column. Basketball fans should check out Three in the Key, next appearing tomorrow.
Comments? Questions? Criticisms or witticisms? You can reach me at rob@creativesports.com if you’d like further information or have a question you’d like me to answer in an upcoming column. Have a suggestion for a column or want to hear analysis about a particular player? Feel free to write. I might even answer!
Rob Blackstien is a freelance writer and the principal of Pen-Ultimate (www.pen-ultimate.ca), a Toronto-based writing and editorial services firm. Position Battles, a column he writes for www.rotoworld.com, also appears on usatoday.com and foxsports.com.