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Mr. Replay > The Killer Bs

In Miami, the term "Killer Bs" referenced the great Dolphin defense of the early eighties featuring Lyle and Glenn Blackwood, Kim Bokamper, and others. In Houston, it's Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Lance Berkman, and Derek Bell. 

But in Cleveland, the term is not a positive one. It's more akin to killer bees, as in a swarm of deadly insects. The final four spots in the Cleveland lineup are occupied by Ben Broussard, Ron Belliard, Aaron Boone, and Casey Blake. Last year, they were the four weakest players in the lineup.

Boone was off-the-charts bad in the first two months of the season, struggling to get above the Mendoza line until June. His OPS was under .500 in both April and May. He recovered enough to finish at .677, but he was still one of the worst hitters in the league, and more than eighty points off his career average. 

Blake wasn't as bad generally, but he made up for it by being terrible in the clutch.  Blake's splits for 2005 are truly remarkable. His numbers just get worse depending on the pressure of the situation, all the way down to a microscopic .085 average with runners in scoring position and two outs. 

Broussard didn't have a terrible year, but the fact that he plays a power-hitting position, is notoriously streaky, and suffered a drop off of more than one hundred OPS points from the previous season made him a focal point for fan angst. 

This year, things are very different, at least so far. At the very worst, Broussard is on one of his hot streaks. He drove in eight runs against the Red Sox Thursday night, and his average now sits at a robust .407. 

Blake has cooled after a hot start, but he still sits at .352. More importantly, he already has more hits with two outs and runners in scoring position than he did all of last year, and his average in those situations is an absurd .583.

Boone has been least successful of the group, but even he has a .770 OPS right now -- above his career average.

So what are the chances these guys continue to produce for their fantasy owners? Well, for AL only purposes, Casey Blake is the least likely to lose his job, because the Indians' system doesn't have any prospects who are ready to take over in the outfield besides Jason DuboisFranklin Gutierrez and Brad Snyder are probably still a year away. Left fielder Jason Michaels is more likely to lose his everyday job than Blake. So Blake is probably going to be in right field all season, even if he reverts to last year's form.

Aaron Boone is in the most danger here. He got drilled in the wrist in Baltimore last week, and he was back playing the next night. That's partially because Boone probably knows Andy Marte would take over if he got hurt even for a couple of weeks, and the starting job might not be there upon his return.

Broussard stands in the middle. Eduardo Perez has been nearly as good as the righty half of the platoon, but he has demonstrated over a long period of time that he can't hit righthanders, so he is not a threat. The threat is that Ryan Garko keeps tearing it up at AAA.

However, I don't think Broussard is going to lose his job, and it's partially for the same reason that he is the best pick of the three for mixed leagues. Broussard simply has more offensive upside than Boone or Blake. He has a nice lefty stroke with good (not great) pop, and he showed patience in 2004, his best season. If he can regain that eye and stay consistent, he could take a big step forward, or at least back to where he was in 2004.

Blake has made himself into a solid major league hitter, but it just doesn't get any better than 2004 for him, and it might not get back there. He's a risky player with limited upside in mixed leagues.

Boone is the worst hitter of the three, and that was true even before he got hurt. What he has going for him is a little bit of speed, which can go a long way in rotisserie, and the ability to qualify at a position that isn't as deep as first or outfield. Nonetheless, he only belongs in fairly deep mixed leagues that require starting two third basemen.

 

posted @ Thursday, April 27, 2006 9:57 PM by John Dunfee

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