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Mr. Replay > Alfonso Soriano and Fantasy Baseball

A great month of intrigue finally ended with Alfonso Soriano's abrupt decision to play left field for the Nationals. Throughout his career, until Wednesday, Soriano had consistently balked at the idea of playing in the outfield.

And then, all of a sudden, he simply changed his mind. Or if you believe Soriano, he was asked the question for the first time, considered it, and decided to play out there. Or, if you believe the Nationals, there was an inexplicable lineup card snafu that resulted in Soriano being unaware that he was supposed to be in left field for the top of the first inning on Monday.

Whatever you believe, it's over for now, and Soriano will open the season in left field for the Nationals. How much this matters depends on the rules for your league. If position eligibility is based on where a player played last year, Soriano gains a bit of value because he remains eligible at a position where offense is at a premium while at the same time gaining some additional versatility. Don't laugh -- I drafted Craig Biggio in one league last year and ended up having to use him in the outfield all season.

If Soriano qualifies at second base in your league, the only question will be whether learning a new position in a new league has an adverse impact on his hitting. My guess is that it won't, mainly because Soriano doesn't seem to care that much about defense in the first place, at least over the long haul of a full season. So he may not be very good out there, but chances are that he won't take it to the plate with him.

In leagues that base position eligibility on where a player is expected to play this year, Soriano's value will take a clear hit. He will go from being the likely top fantasy second baseman in the National League to a very good outfielder. He will still have quite a bit of value, particularly in deep leagues, but there will be other players at his position who can provide more.

The hope in these leagues will be that he will pick up second base eligibility as the season goes on. The Nationals claim this won't be the case. However, Jose Vidro has developed a habit of missing significant time, and with Ryan Church on the bench, moving Soriano back to second base may be the best thing the team can if Vidro is out longterm. 

The secondary impact here is that the other top second basemen gain a bit in value. Marcus Giles and Jeff Kent should be the top two here. Vidro gains as well, because his job is clarified. 

In keeper leagues where position eligibility changes from year to year, there is the added question of where in the field Soriano plays next year. My guess is that his decision on Wednesday will actually enhance his chances of playing second base next year. As a free agent, he will be able to choose a team that is willing to play him at second base. If he had held firm with the Nats, he would have been placed on the disqualified list and ceased gaining the service time necessary to get to free agency. He also would have damaged his reputation. Now he looks like a team player, and he gains the ability to dictate where he plays.

Which brings me to all the speculation about Soriano's motives. The pundits have suggested ultimately this is all about money -- the comparative value I discuss from a fantasy perspective above is what is at stake for Soriano personally. As a second baseman, he is arguably the top offensive player at his position in the game. As an outfielder, he is just another very good hitter.

I have another theory as to why Soriano refused to play outfield, though. I think he just might have a fantasy baseball team where he had a certain player pencilled in for second base this year -- a player who will now be playing left field.

posted @ Thursday, March 23, 2006 8:54 PM by John Dunfee

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