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Spikes Up > A Breakout in Baltimore

We’re back, baby! With the season just around the corner, it’s time to kick it up a notch, so as of today, Spikes Up shifts back to weekly mode. Most of you have probably either already conducted your 2006 drafts or are just about to, so let’s get those fantasy thoughts flowing and see if we can’t impart some last-minute wisdom into the process.

Ay Cabrera!: In an offseason filled with transactions, one of the most interesting moves was the Orioles luring pitching coach Leo Mazzone away from his long-time partner Bobby Cox and the Atlanta Braves. What’s that? A pitching coach switching organizations creating intrigue? Absolutely. Mazzone’s record of pitching reclamation projects speaks for itself. The contributions he made to the Braves’ dynasty cannot be understated.

Now the question is, what can he do with some of those great young Orioles’ arms? Certainly the one that most fascinates me is Daniel Cabrera – owner of some of the nastiest (if somewhat raw) stuff in the Show. All he needs is consistency and control and look out. Could Mazzone be the missing ingredient to help Cabrera take it to the next level?

Well, last Tuesday at the World Baseball Classic, Cabrera provided a glimpse of what he might be capable of when he tossed four no-hit innings with just one walk and seven K's to help the Dominican Republic edge Venezuela 2-1. If he can add better command and a more mature mound presence to his already phenomenal velocity (ranging from 98 to 101 mph), the American League had better watch out. Cabrera could vault himself into a legitimate ace virtually overnight, and a 15-win, 200-strikeout, 4.00-season is a real possibility.

Pena to be Set Free?: The Detroit Tigers are expected to send Carlos Pena packing, handing first base over to Chris Shelton with Dmitri Young backing him up when he isn’t handling the DH duties. A .189 start to the spring isn’t helping Pena’s prospects in Motown. He was a premier prospect once upon a time, and he has flashed that power potential in the majors, but at this point, Pena looks like he’ll wind up as a power bat off the bench somewhere. A slow bat can sure slow your career.

Could he Repeat?: Mike Matheny established himself as a somewhat useful fantasy catcher last year thanks to a sudden surge in power. He had never topped eight long balls in a season before, but wound up cranking 13 in 2005 to go along with 34 doubles for 59 RBI and a .406 SLG and 701 OPS, all personal bests. Matheny’s groundball rate dropped significantly last year, and those extra fly balls definitely contributed to the homer spike. The chances are slim that his groundball/fly ball rate stays as low, not to mention the unlikelihood he nears 450 at-bats again, so it’s unwise to think that Matheny will again post double-digit dingers.Given his lackluster BA (a .239 career hitter), you really don’t want to be thinking about him in fantasy contextunless you are involved in an NL-only league. Matheny is having a stellar spring (.429 through six games with five RBI), but don’t let that fool you.

Back to Charm City: Jeff Conine is back in Baltimore this season after a three-year stint in Florida (his second tour of duty with the O’s). Yes, clearly, he’s been around the block. Conine will be 40 before the all-star break and is up to 1,781 career games for those of you keeping score at home. Amazingly enough, he’s still projected to be a starter this year and is expected to play first and bat eighth for the Orioles. It’s doubtful Conine will see much action, if any, in the outfield this year, but given that Baltimore is not as deep with flyhawks as it has been in the past (especially since the Richard Hidalgo signing went so horribly awry), it’s a possibility. However, from a fantasy standpoint, do you actually want Conine on your squad? Well, certainly AL-only owners need to be aware that he can still hit (.304 last year) and gets on base at a nice rate (.374 OBP) as he’s become a more patient hitter with age. And Conine is capable of doing the little things like moving runners up or laying down the occasional bunt that makes him more valuable in real life than in fantasy terms, but chances are you don’t care about that. The bottom line is that he will lose some at-bats to the likes of Kevin Millar, Javy Lopez and David Newhan this season and while I expect his power to rebound to double-digit homers (he had the highest groundball rate of his career in 2005 and a move back to the AL and a more hitting-friendly park helps), Conine is not an attractive option. He might help you as a bench player in a deeper AL-league, but a first baseman with declining power batting in a non-RBI spot in the order is not someone to draft. Keep an eye on him as a waiver wire addition during the season, should you need help in batting average.

NEXT: Spikes Up will be back on March 27, to discuss news from around Spring Training and deliver last-minute observations before we kick off the 2006 season in earnest. Basketball fans should check out Three in the Key, next appearing March 28.

Comments? Questions? Criticisms or witticisms? You can reach me at rob@creativesports.com if you’d like further information or have a question you’d like me to answer in an upcoming column. Have a suggestion for a column or want to hear analysis about a particular player? Feel free to write. I might even answer!

Rob Blackstien is a freelance writer and the principal of Pen-Ultimate (www.pen-ultimate.ca), a Toronto-based writing and editorial services firm. Position Battles, a column he writes for www.rotoworld.com, also appears on usatoday.com and foxsports.com.

posted @ Sunday, March 19, 2006 5:20 PM by Rob Blackstien

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