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Baseball Hotpage > 2006 Sleepers

One of the best things about the Net is how accessible it makes information. As you all probably know, I spent the last week in London, at my cousin's Danny and Claire's wedding. But, thanks to WiFi and Broadband, aside from a couple of days in bucolic (and I mean bucolic) where dial-up seemed pretty far-fetched, I could check the scores and see who was doing what, and even reset the roster on my Diamond Legends league. (I do wonder though, as that team has tanked it over the time I was abroad).

And, of course it is as ridiculous to try and derive anything from them, just like it is impossible to to figure who will win a title after a month's worth of totals.

So, this time I am going to look at my Top 10 favorite sleepers, and add Sliders next Tuesday along with some spring training news. The next week will be a look at the 2006 ToutWars draft, which should be extra fun this year with the pubishing of Fantasyland.

To a large degree "sleeper" has become a useless term, or at least not one we can banter about casually any longer. As stated above, all the info is out there, and players knew last year that Jeremy Bonderman was hot before the season ended. And, all that hype followed him to the draft and while Bonderman had a nice season, most owners likely overpaid in anticipation of a more complete hurler than the guy is just yet.

But, that could also make Bonderman a little devalued this year as some owners were burned, and many more into risk management will be equally fearful.

Another thing to try and contextualize is not so much to look for the sleeper in terms of the draft. Surely, there will be opportunities for bargains and the question is whether or not you can capitalize on the moment. And, odds are for most of us the answer will be sometimes "yes" and somethimes "no."

But, remember that you cannot win on draft day unless you are very lucky, or play against milk cartons. So, think of playing the waiver wire and making your weekly FAAB picks as digging for sleepers, and, remember that there is generally little investment in the players you will pick up. So, while trying not to overmanage, try not to let players go, and keep mixing your lineup around week to week, tuning and refining all the way.

OK, so, enough of that, I will tell you the ten guys I am hoping I can get for under value  during my auctions this season.

  1. Casey Kotchman (1B, Angels): OK, so this one is not much of a surprise, especially if you read this spot frequently, but I think the guy is gonna rake it, major. Kotchman is going to give those tasty Sean Casey kinds of numbers, .306-17-90 and, since first base is deep, and his stat sample small, Kotchman should be around for a while. He makes a brilliant corner option at around $10 if you can pull it.
  2. Michael Cuddyer (3B, OF, Twins): Some nice position flexibility, and depending upon your league rules, Cuddyer also qualifies at first (eight games) and second (11 games). He is another guy who has been slow to deliver what we thought would be very good numbers following a full year and some stability. Again, owners will have been stung before so Cuddyer could slip through at the $8 range in an AL only league and should give something around .275-17-80 or better. which means a huge jump in RBI.
  3. Danny Cabrera (P, Orioles): Arguably the best stuff of any young arm in either league. But, he may already have hit the Bonderman line.
  4. Jason Bay (OF, Pirates):  Of course Bay is not a secret, but he is coming off a fabulous year on a bad team, and in the course of things, by 2007 Bay will be as coveted as Mark Teixeira is now, coming off two wonderful and improved seasons.
  5. Joe Mauer (C, Twins):  As with Bay, Mauer is a known quantity, and he won't be a cheap buy, but he will not only build upon last year, like Bay he will slip to the fifth or sixth round in a draft, and the $17 range in an auction. But, if you can grab him in a keeper league, do it (as with all the guys on this list), and remember, in the future he will go in the first three rounds.
  6. Russ Adams (SS, Jays): A former #1 pick who will kick it up kind of like Michael Young did a few years ago. Not 200 hits yet, or anything, but 150 and double digit homers and swipes. And, he will play every day.
  7. Noah Lowry (P, Giants): Lowry had a very good second half, once he trusted his ability. His second half 8-4, 2.43 was stellar, and he is settling in, in a pitcher's park with a nice smooth motion. Gold.
  8. Scott Kazmir (P, Rays): Another live arm, and a lot of strikeouts, all within a guy who is still reaching his potential. And, the Rays are not a bad little team.
  9. Scott Rolen (3B, Cards): He was so hot in 2004, and so fashionable going into 2005, and then so injured all year. If he is healthy, Rolen will get back to form and be the best at his spot.
  10. Kelly Johnson (OF, Braves): So here is a guy who may actually go under the radar, especially in view of the other hot prospects names in the Atlanta outfield, I think Johnson could go cheap--and even as a reserve pick in a mixed league--and give solid fourth outfielder numbers in an NL only format. Double digits in swipes.

That will be it for this time. This Friday I will report from the NFBC, and next week I will be in Phoenix, not to mention next Tuesday will be sliders.

posted @ Monday, March 13, 2006 10:34 PM by Lawr Michaels

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