Greetings again, and welcome back as the roto roller coaster for 2006 is open for business.

With a pretty interesting Super Bowl behind us, it is certainly time for the CREATiVESPORTS first offering of the season: our 10^th Annual "Top 250 Prospect List." Actually, when I completed my first, for CBS Sportsline a million years ago, it was only a top 100 and a by-product of the top ten for each of the upper level minor leagues.

But, as the years passed, how I grabbed the data changed, as did how I looked, and now there is a pretty tight system, as ultimatey extrapolated this year by JP Kastner, and proofed by Trace Wood .Working with these two is always such fun. It also fosters ideas, which hopefully will introduce some new and interesting projects. Irrespective, a heartfelt thanks to both.

As Trace and I were discussing the list, and assessing ballplayers, he made his strong case that you cannot really make a learned analysis unless you have actually seen the player. And, I cannot disagree.

On the other hand, we do not always have the opportunity, or the time to see everyone. Living where I do, the nearest Double-A baseball from me is in El Paso. But, that is one good reason to go to something like the Arizona Fall League (which, not coincidentally, Trace, JP, and I all do).

In any event, my list, as you hopefully know by now factors level of play and age against specific skill sets, favoring dominance and control in pitchers, and on-base and power factors in hitters. Essentially, the greater the ability to establish those skills over 200 at-bats or 70 innings (the cumulative minimum that must be earned at Low-A or above) at an early age, the higher a player rates.

While you will see players you would expect (Matt Cain, #7; Jeremy Hermida, #35), there are, as Trace suggests, some surprises, like #5 in Brewers catching up-and-comer Angel Salome).

Next, when looking at the ratings, remember that there is a very fine line between the ratings of the #1 player and the #100 player. So again, as Trace suggests, actually seeing a player should be enough to sway a statistically-based opinion one way or the other. Just be assured that all these players showed some kind of dominance, all the way down the list.

That is down to say Hanley Ramirez, who was dragged down by low on-base and power numbers, and registered at #348, and now at age 22, Josh Barfield (#352).

OK, so, if I have piqued your curiosity, see my Top Ten below, with a brief abstract.

1. Daric Barton, (20, 1B, Atheltics):   Barton finished #2 on this list last year, and, after a season, it is hard to imagine Oakland copped both Dan Haren and Barton for Mark Mulder. Barton built on a solid 2004 by going .318-8-52 at High-A Stockton, then finsihing the season at AA Midland going .316-5-37. Barton banged 36 doubles in the process, and walked 87 times to striking out just 79, and registering a combined .426 OBP. Barton kept it up during the AFL (.267-1-10 with a .429 OBP) as he honed his first base skills. Face it: the guy can rake. 
2. Gabriel  Hernandez (19, P, Mets): Hernandez actually had two season in 2005, first at Hagerson where he went 6-1, 2.43 before being swapped for Paul LoDuca. Hernandez finished his seaon at Port St. Lucie, struggling at 2-5, 5.74 but he still comported himself well enough overall (8-6, 3.47), striking out 131 over 135 total innings, allowing 40 walks and 107 hits. Hernandez was a third round pick of the Fish, and at age 19 has shown excellent control and command for a 19-year old. 
3. Carlos Alvarez (20, P, Dodgers):  If picking prospects is dicey, picking potential closers is a dicey extrapolation of the same craziness. Alvarez, who has worked exclusively as a finisher in the minors,  showed serious dominance last year at Columbus where he went 2-2, with three saves and an 0.93 ERA over 38.2 innings (how about 63 whiffs over that span?), and then moved on to Jacksonville finsihing at 4-0, 3.99 over 38.1 more innings. Alvarez finished 6-2, 2.45, with three saves and allowing just 62 hits and 28 walks over 77 innings, while whiffing 94. Ouch. In a good way.
4. Angel Salome (19, C, Brewers):  Selected in the fifth round of the 2004 draft out of George Washington High Scool in the Bronx, Salome is a plug (5'7", 190), but he can pound the ball. He played 37 games at Helena in rookie ball going .415-8-50 with an OPS of 1.142 before a promotion to West Virginia cooled hinm down (.254-4-21). The aggregate was an OPS of .970 over a combined 277 at-bats.
5. Yusmeiro Petit (20, P, Mets): Petit fared just about as well last year, so his appearance should not be a surpirse at all. At Binghamton Petit was 9-3, 2.91 over 117 innings. He struggled when promoted to Norfolk (0-3, 9.20 over three starts) but, in 2004 Petit was dominant at A ball just as he was Double-A this year. However, in '04, when promoted to AA, Petit struggled. So, it could be experience. Or, it could be, as Trace Wood suggests, Petit just does not have enough gas to compete at the highest levels. Irrespective, he has a resume that has been noticed, and will at least get a chance to show what he can do.
6. Matt Cain (20, P, Giants):  Perhaps the most polished of the pitchers on this list, Cain just squeezed in under the rookie wirehurling 46.1 innings at SBC after a solid start at Triple-A Fresno. In that hitter's league, Cain--a former first round pick--went 10-5, 4.31, with a spectacular 176 whiffs over 145.2 innings. Once3 in The show, Cain made seven starts and went 2-1, 2.33, with a good 30 whiffs and just 21 hits and 19 walks over those 46.1 innings. He is in the rotation and poised for that breakout.
7. Collin Balester (19, P, Nationals):   A fourth round pick of the then Expos in 2004, Balestar spent a full season at Savannah in '05, going 8-6, 3.67 over 125 innings. He struck out 95, walked 42, and allowed just 105 hits for a very good 1.18 WHIP. Balester probably has the longest way to go of any on this list.
8. Francisco Liriano (21, P, Twins):  Probably right behind Cain in the polished sense, most fantasy players know of Liriano, and hope he will be another Johan Santana. After going 3-5, 3.64 at AA New Britain, Liriano was just deadly at AAA Rochester. There Liriano went 9-2, 1.93 over 14 starts and 91 innings, before making three bumpy starts (1-2, 5.70) for the Twins. In the minors  Liriano was 12-7, 2.63, with 204 strikeouts to 50 walks, allowing 126 hits over 167.2 innings. And, while it is fun to compare, give Lirinao a break as a rookie. And, note with his credentials, and a likely roster spot, it could be easy to overpay for Liriano's services in 2006. 
9. Delmon Young (20, OF, Devil Rays):  Another up-and-comer whose "come uppance" most of us have been awaiting. Young--a former #1 overall pick--is just flat out scary, having hit to the tune of .336-20-70 at Double-A Montgomery for 330 at-bats before advancing to AAA Durham and cooly clicking off .285-6-26 totals. Young also hit 26 double, swiped 32 bags, and is just waiting for an opening on what looks to be a very talented young Rays team. Too bad they are stuck trying to prove themselves in a division with the Red Sox and Yankees, where winning a crown is easier said than done.
10. Eduardo Morlan (19, P, Twins): The Twins third round selection in 2004, Morlan started '05 at rookie ball but after chalking up 2-0, 0.82 totals over 22 innings and four starts, he went to Beloit. It was there Morlan continued to develop, going 4-4, 4.38, with 55 strikeouts over 51.1 innings. Overall he was 6-4, 3.31 over 73.1 innings with 85 strkeouts and only 45 hits allowed. Walks were a bit of an issue though, with 37, and the Twins have enough arms for now that they need not rush Morlan. Keep him on your radar, however, as sooner will come sooner than we might think.

That will be it for this time till the first Monday in March, but, then the weekly routine starts again through the season. In the mean time, don't forget to get the Prospect List, our Spring Training Report, or our Draft Kit, or all three for one low price and a $6 savings!