Continued from Part I...
If no one is elected, it will mark only the second time that has happened in the last 35 years. Ignoring years when no vote was held, the only other votes when no one was elected were 1945, 1946, 1950, 1958, 1960, 1971 and 1996 – the latter being when Phil Niekro topped the ballot with 68.3 percent support, before gaining election in 1997. Complicating things, there is no Veterans Committee election this year, so it appears that any players inducted in 2006 will have to come from the special-panel Negro Leagues election slated for March. But most, perhaps all of those players elected (if any) will be deceased players obviously unable to attend the induction ceremony. So, if this year’s ballot were topped by someone with slightly stronger credentials than Bruce Sutter, there would be a cynical impulse to predict his election on the premise that the trustees prefer at least one live player inductee to boost attendance at their annual event. Unfortunately, Sutter, Jim Rice, et. al don’t seem to be strong enough candidates to justify that cynicism.
The table below provides the recent vote history (2003-2005) of each holdover candidate on this year’s ballot, along with my relative prediction of how each of the 29 men will fare in next Tuesday’s results. Beyond the name and position given, the columns represent, from left to right, the number of times each man has been on the ballot (TOB), the support percentages earned by each holdover in the 2003 (03%) and 2004 (04%) voting, the number of votes (05V) and support percentage (05%) received in 2005, and a general assessment of each candidate’s current momentum (Trend) – either up, down or nil, and in most cases marginal, at best. The final column provides my prediction (Pred) of each man’s approximate support percentage in this year’s voting. The numbers are intended to reflect an accuracy of ± 3.0 percent, so a player listed at 45.0 percent support is actually expected to fall somewhere within the range of 42.0-to-48.0 percent.
| Player |
Pos |
TOB |
03% |
04% |
05V |
05% |
Trend |
Pred |
| Bruce Sutter |
RP |
13 |
53.6 |
59.5 |
344 |
66.7 |
up |
71.0 |
| Jim Rice |
OF |
12 |
52.2 |
54.5 |
307 |
59.5 |
up |
67.0 |
| Goose Gossage |
RP |
7 |
42.1 |
40.7 |
285 |
55.2 |
up |
58.0 |
| Andre Dawson |
OF |
5 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
270 |
52.3 |
up |
56.0 |
| Bert Blyleven |
SP |
9 |
29.2 |
35.4 |
211 |
40.9 |
up |
48.0 |
| Lee Smith |
RP |
4 |
42.3 |
36.6 |
200 |
38.8 |
nil |
42.0 |
| Jack Morris |
SP |
7 |
22.8 |
26.3 |
172 |
33.3 |
up |
39.0 |
| Tommy John |
SP |
12 |
23.4 |
21.9 |
123 |
23.8 |
nil |
25.0 |
| Steve Garvey |
1B |
14 |
27.8 |
24.3 |
106 |
20.5 |
down |
22.0 |
| Alan Trammell |
SS |
5 |
14.1 |
13.8 |
87 |
16.9 |
nil |
21.0 |
| Dave Parker |
OF |
10 |
10.3 |
10.5 |
65 |
12.6 |
up |
15.0 |
| Will Clark |
1B |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
14.0 |
| Don Mattingly |
1B |
6 |
13.7 |
12.8 |
59 |
11.4 |
down |
14.0 |
| Dale Murphy |
OF |
8 |
11.7 |
8.5 |
54 |
10.5 |
nil |
13.0 |
| Dave Concepcion |
SS |
13 |
11.1 |
11.3 |
55 |
10.7 |
nil |
12.0 |
| Albert Belle |
OF |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
9.0 |
| Orel Hershiser |
SP |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
7.0 |
| Willie McGee |
OF |
2 |
NOB |
NOB |
26 |
5.0 |
nil |
4.0 |
| Gary Gaetti |
3B |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
1.5 |
| Dwight Gooden |
SP |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
1.5 |
| Rick Aguilera |
RP |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
1.0 |
| Doug Jones |
RP |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
<1.0 |
| Ozzie Guillen |
SS |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
<1.0 |
| Walt Weiss |
SS |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
<1.0 |
| John Wetteland |
RP |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
0.0 |
| Gregg Jefferies |
1B |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
0.0 |
| Hal Morris |
1B |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
0.0 |
| Alex Fernandez |
SP |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
0.0 |
| Gary DiSarcina |
SS |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
0.0 |
It’s also clear that, if no one among Sutter, Rice, Dawson, Gossage, Blyleven, et. al is elected this time, their chances for future enshrinement will diminish greatly beginning in 2007. The freshman class of 2007 includes three de facto qualifiers – Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken, Jr. and the possibly steroid-tainted Mark McGwire – along with several other relatively strong candidates (e.g., Harold Baines, Paul O’Neill, Bret Saberhagen and Mr. Juiced himself, Jose Canseco). Their additions to the ballot will not make things easier for any of the holdovers who are not elected this year. That bodes especially badly for Garvey, Sutter, Concepcion, Rice and John, all of whom are within three years of the end of their BBWAA eligibility.
For what it’s worth, if I had the privilege to vote, my own ballot would include (in approximate order of merit) Jim Rice, Andre Dawson, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter, Bert Blyleven, Jack Morris and Dale Murphy.