One of the first items of business in baseball each year is the announcement of players elected to the Hall of Fame. This leads to lots of speculation and a little analysis prior to the announcement which is scheduled for January 10.
Many systems exist for evaluating player performance. One such system, the Win Shares method, developed by Bill James in 2002, is a complex method for evaluating players which includes all aspects of performance – offense, defense and pitching. James has stated that, “Historically, 400 Win Shares means absolute enshrinement in the Hall of Fame. Three hundred Win Shares makes a player more likely than not to be a Hall of Famer. However, future standards may be different. Players with 300-350 Win Shares in the past have generally gone into the Hall of Fame. In the future, they more often will not.”
The 2006 class of Hall of Fame candidates is not strong. It consists of 15 holdovers and 14 players eligible for the first time and not a single one on the list has even 350 Win Shares. Four holdovers have over 300 Win Shares: Andre Dawson with 340, Bert Blyleven (339), Dave Parker (331) and Alan Trammell with 318. Will Clark heads the list of newcomers with 331 Win Shares, but none of the other newcomers on the ballot has 250.
With the weak incoming class, the holdovers should gain votes. Last year, with another weak class, 12 of the holdovers had increased votes with Ryne Sandberg getting enough to make it. The three that lost ground were Steve Garvey, Dave Concepcion and Don Mattingly, none of whom are serious candidates.
The leading vote-getter among the 15 players who were on last year’s ballot is Bruce Sutter who ranks last in Win Shares among the holdovers. With 66.7 percent of the votes last year, he has a chance to get the necessary 75 percent this year. Of the four holdovers with 300+ Win Shares, Dawson and Blyleven are the only serious candidates. Dawson has been right around the 50 percent mark for three years, so he is unlikely to make the jump all the way to 75 percent this year. Blyleven, by far the most deserving pitcher on the list, has been gaining about 5 percentage points per year as voters appear to be slowly realizing how good he was. An increase to the 45 to 50 percent range is about all he can expect this year, but he could eventually make it.
The only other holdovers with more than 50 percent of the votes last year were Jim Rice (59.5 percent) and Goose Gossage with 55.2 percent. Rice has been in the 52 to 59 percent range the last three years. He doesn’t seem to have enough momentum to make the jump to 75 percent this year. Gossage, like Blyleven, was largely overlooked by voters in his early years on the ballot, but jumped from 40.7 to 55.2 percent last year. He should move up some more this year, but not to 75 percent.
Other than Wade Boggs, last year’s class was even weaker than this one. Willie McGee was the only other newcomer with enough votes to remain on the ballot and he barely snuck in with 5 percent. Clark is the only newcomer on the ballot this year that is a serious contender and most of the other newcomers will likely drop off the ballot next year as a result of getting less than 5 percent of the votes.
Clark’s career did not follow the path that was expected after his strong start. In his first seven years with the Giants, he appeared to be a sure-fire Hall-of-Famer. However, the seven seasons in the American League – in what should have been some of his prime years – were good, but not great, and not up to HOF standards. Clark's main attributes were his batting average (.303) and especially his on-base percentage (.384). However, he did not have the power expected of a first baseman. Clark hit 35 home runs in his second year in the major leagues and never again reached 30. He never had a .300-30-100 season, and after he left the Giants, he never hit more than 23 home runs. Clark did have a strong finish when he returned to the National League for a half season with the Cardinals. However, his record doesn’t appear strong enough to get in on the first ballot.
The only other newcomer on the list that merits mention is Albert Belle. He had some HOF-caliber years, but not enough of them. His total of 243 Win Shares reflects his relatively short career which ended at the age of 34. This, combined with his charming personality, will reduce the support he receives from the baseball writers charged with voting.
All of this leaves open the real possibility that no one will be elected in 2006.
Following is a list of Win Shares for the 29 players on the ballot. Players on the ballot for the first time are shown in bold. 2004 and 2005 voting is shown for the holdovers.
| Rank |
Player |
Win Shares |
2004 Votes |
2004 % |
2005 Votes |
2005% |
| 1. |
Andre Dawson |
340 |
253 |
50.0 |
273 |
52.3 |
| 2. |
Bert Blyleven |
339 |
179 |
35.4 |
211 |
40.9 |
| 3. |
Will Clark |
331 |
|
|
|
|
| 4. |
Dave Parker |
327 |
53 |
10.5 |
65 |
12.6 |
| 5. |
Alan Trammell |
318 |
70 |
13.8 |
87 |
16.9 |
| 6. |
Dale Murphy |
294 |
43 |
8.5 |
54 |
10.5 |
| 7.
| Tommy John |
289 |
111 |
21.9 |
123 |
23.8 |
| 8. |
Jim Rice |
282 |
276 |
54.6 |
307 |
59.5 |
| 9. |
Steve Garvey |
279 |
123 |
24.3 |
106 |
20.5 |
| 10. |
Dave Concepcion |
269
| 57 |
11.3 |
55 |
10.7 |
| 11. |
Don Mattingly |
263 |
65 |
12.9 |
59 |
11.4 |
| 12. |
Gary Gaetti |
249 |
|
|
|
|
| 13. |
Albert Belle |
243 |
|
|
|
|
| 14. |
Jack Morris |
225 |
133 |
26.3 |
172 |
33.3 |
| 15. |
Willie McGee |
224 |
|
|
26 |
5.0 |
| 16. |
Rich Gossage |
223 |
206 |
40.7 |
285 |
55.2 |
| 17. |
Orel Hershiser |
210 |
|
|
|
|
| 18. |
Lee Smith |
198 |
185 |
36.6 |
200 |
38.8 |
| 19. |
Dwight Gooden |
187 |
|
|
|
|
| 20. |
Bruce Sutter |
168 |
301 |
59.5 |
344 |
66.7 |
| 21. |
Gregg Jefferies |
162 |
|
|
|
|
| 22. |
Ozzie Guillen |
148 |
|
|
|
|
| 23. |
Rick Aguilera |
147 |
|
|
|
|
| 24. |
Doug Jones |
146 |
|
|
|
|
| 25. |
John Wetteland |
127 |
|
|
|
|
| 26. |
Walt Weiss |
123 |
|
|
|
|
| 27. |
Alex Fernandez |
110 |
|
|
|
|
| 28. |
Hal Morris |
104 |
|
|
|
|
| 29. |
Gary DiSarcina |
65 |
|
|
|
|
The players elected by baseball writers since 2000 have averaged 360 Win Shares, well above all of the players on the ballot this year.
| Player |
Year |
Win Shares |
| Carlton Fisk |
2000 |
368 |
| Tony Perez
| 2000 |
347 |
| Dave Winfield |
2001 |
415 |
| Kirby Puckett |
2001 |
281 |
| Ozzie Smith |
2002 |
325 |
| Gary Carter |
2003 |
337 |
| Eddie Murray |
2003 |
437 |
| Paul Molitor |
2004 |
414 |
| Dennis Eckersley |
2004 |
301 |
| Wade Boggs |
2005 |
394 |
| Ryne Sandberg |
2005 |
346 |
| Average |
|
360 |
With three strong candidates scheduled to be on the ballot next year (Cal Ripken, Jr., 427 Win Shares, Tony Gwynn, 398 Win Shares and Mark McGwire, 342 Win Shares), the holdovers who don’t make it this year will probably not make it next year either.
Conclusions:
1. No players will be elected by the baseball writers this year.
2. Despite receiving 66.7 percent of the votes last year, Sutter will not get the necessary 75 percent because many writers will realize he is not the most deserving relief pitcher on the ballot.
3. Dawson will again be held back by his career .323 OBP.
4. Blyleven and Gossage will continue to move up, but will fall short.
5. Rice will continue to fall short because of his relatively short career.
6. Clark will get the most support of the newcomers, but will fall short. No other newcomers will come close.
7. There will not be a groundswell of support for DiSarcina.
8. All others – no chance.
If I had a ballot, I would cast votes for Blyleven, Trammell and Gossage. If I were on the Veterans Committee, I would vote for Gil Hodges, Ron Santo and Minnie Minoso. If I had a vote for the Ford Frick Award, it would be for Gene Elston.