The Dog Days of Summer are almost complete.  Strangely, the Dog Days of Summer actually begin on July 3 and end on August 11.  Why they aren’t the “Dog Days of July” is beyond me.  It doesn’t much matter what they are called, but more importantly, upon the complete of these Dog Days, its potentially time to take a realistic look at your league’s standings, and react accordingly. 

 

For the first few months of the season, you were likely looking for the best available player at any position (with the exception of pitchers, as you may have targeted a starter or closer).  Those days are over.  In April, May and June, the standings really didn’t make that much of a difference.  Picking up twenty home runs on a competitor was quite possible, as more than half the season remained.  You could afford to go after talent, as opposed to a certain category.

 

Now, however, the game has changed significantly.  Major league teams have played about 115 games, just over 70% of their schedule.  For you math majors out there, that means that there are less than 50 games and about 30% of the schedule remaining.

 

It goes to figure that more than 2/3 of the total stats have already been earned, and given the nature of September and roster expansion, picking up significantly in any single category (other than stolen bases) is going to take considerable work and or luck.

 

As a general rule of thumb, as of August 8, you are not likely to make up 10% in any counting category.  Thus, if your team has scored 800 runs to date, I’m telling you here that you are not likely to pick up 80 runs on your opponents. Picking up 80 runs would require you to beat your opponent, week in and week out, by about 15 runs per week. This is, quite frankly, unlikely. 

 

A 5% increase on your opponents is more possible.  Alternatively, your opponents can, theoretically, pick up 5% in any counting category on you.  If you’ve scored 800 runs, you can pretty much discount any team that is more than 40 runs behind, or more than 40 runs ahead.  The same is true in RBI, and home runs.  Steals are a bit different, as one player can make a huge impact, even this late in the game.

 

On the pitching side, wins are fickle and most anything can happen in that category.  Moreover, you can tilt your roster to add starters, hence increasing your chances on getting wins.  Strikeouts can, to some extent, be manipulated as well.  Of course, the down side to any such strikeout or win manipulation is that your ERA and WHIP are likely to take a hit. 

 

So, when evaluating any trade or free agent pick up, ask yourself if the player is going to make a difference in the standings.  Picking up ten home runs means nothing if the player directly in front of you is twenty home runs ahead.  You get the idea.

 

On a slightly different note, now is also the time to perhaps reload for the stretch run.  If your league allows for a bench, and if you have some space available, I have a few names for your consideration.

 

Ryan Spilborghs is set to return in the next couple of weeks.  He should ease into the Rockies’ lineup four or five days per week, and will supply a solid average, as well as a modicum of speed and power. 

 

Rocco Baldelli is a name to consider.  Rocco won’t have a full-time job waiting, but depending on health, he too will play more than half the time.  He looked good in rehab, and its hard to forget the solid 2003-2006 seasons Rocco put up.  When you are looking at a choice between someone like Matt Stairs and Rocco, I would definitely give Rocco a shot.

 

There’s an outside chance that Rafael Fucal will be back in Los Angeles in September.  While the chance is remote, Furcal can be a difference maker and deserves a spot on your bench.

 

Michael Cuddyer should be stashed on some team’s bench. If not, stash him on yours.

 

Chris Carpenter may still be available in your league.  If so, grab him, now.  Carpenter was among the major’s best pitchers in 2005-2006, and while he won’t perform like the Carpenter of old, he can be an effective starter for the next month and a half.

 

Matt Capps is due back shortly, and whatever save opportunities that the Pirates get (not many), should go to Capps, first.

 

On the opposite side, you need to avoid Adam Jones once he gets cut in your league.  Jones is not coming back. 

 

Todd Helton is likely on your league’s waiver wire.  Leave him there. 

 

Victor Martinez is due back sometime in late August/early September.  The Indians are going nowhere, and Kelly Shoppach has been as good as any catcher in the American League over the past two months.  Martinez will see limited time, and most of that will be at first base or designated hitter.

 

Until next week, best of luck.

 

Buster