Before I talk about the Finer Art of Estimation, I'd like to give you an update on what I have been doing. As it stands today, I'm third overall in the NFBC Chicago League #2. I am two points ahead of fourth and a long 15.5 points from second. Overall, I am 72nd of 390, or in the top 20%.

Overall, I have avoided the injury bug, with only Alfonso Soriano missing any significant time. I was able to replace Soriano with Jason Kubel during Kubel's hot streak, so I really didn't miss Soriano for more than just his stolen base potential.

I have made two moves in the past month. I picked up the injured Matt Capps and newly appointed closer, Joel Hanrahan for an end of season attack on saves, ERA and WHIP. I'm in a strong position in strikeouts (#2 overall) and I'm not likely to catch up to #1 (-39 strikeouts), therefore I am more likely to make some gains in these other categories, especially saves and WHIP.

From a hitting perspective, I'm strong in AVE, R, and RBI. Adding Soriano helps in the HR and SB. If I move up it will be because of execution. I feel that I have the right guys for the job.

This week I'd like to talk the finer art of estimation. When a season ends, as I watch the playoffs, one of the things I look at is the overall league performance in certain categories. Everyone knows that in the late 90's, the era of steroid-fueled power hitters, there were more home runs. Because there were more home runs, you needed more of them, but the average hitter hit more. Therefore, the cost of a home run was cheaper. It was a simple matter of supply and demand: there was less demand for home runs because there was a greater supply.

Stolen bases, on the other hand, were much more expensive. Home runs are the more run efficient hit. You don't need to manufacture a run when you hit home runs. Also, there is an inherent risk to a stolen base. The first risk is that you get caught, taking a base runner away as well as a potential run. The second is that it is possible to get hurt stealing a base. It is hard to get hurt jogging around the bases after home run, but running full speed and sliding into a base is a risky proposition.

There has been a clear trend towards fewer home runs and more stolen bases. Therefore, with a reduced supply of home runs, they are becoming more expensive.

The reason this trend is important is that prior to the start of any fantasy season, one needs to guess how many items in a category one needs. If one invests too much on a given category, the other categories suffer. Let's take a look at what I guessed I needed for the NFBC and what I project I will need, using two categories that I'm short in, home runs and stolen bases.

Pulling out my preseason spreadsheet, I see that I guessed that I needed 260 home runs for third place (my goal is always third place). Right now, the #3 team has 185 home runs, a 272-home run pace for the season. It is interesting that there is a pretty significant difference between third and forth. Forth place is running at a 246-home run pace. My guess is in between #3 and #4, so I was close. Unfortunately, I'm at 147, on pace for just 216, well short of my goal of 260.

Where are those missing 44 home runs? I drafted Delmon Young with the assumption that he'd be a 20/20 guy. I felt that 20 home runs was a safe bet. He'd play every day wherever he played. He's on pace for 6, so there is 14 of the missing homers. I guessed that Connor Jackson was going to break out for power this year. He did break out, but I'm short of the 25 I thought he might hit. He's on pace for 20, so I'm only 5 off, and he could easily hit his goal because his power is so streaky. For a 12th round guy, his .324/100/20/90/10 pace is well appreciated. My #2 pick, B.J. Upton is also well short of what I thought he would do. He hit 24 last year, so I thought 24 again this year would be a safe bet; however, he's on pace for just 9, so there is another 15 missing home runs. Add Brad Hawpe (-6), Aramis Ramirez (-4) and Alfonso Soriano (-10) and I can see that I didn't pick wisely.

Adding it all up, I'm 54 homeruns off where I thought I would be. Add the 54 missing home runs to my 216 pace and I'd be at 270. I'd be in forth, not third, but I'd gain an extra seven points in the standings. I'd also gain an extra 54 in the R and RBI categories as well.

As for stolen bases, I guessed that I would need about 175. The #3 team has 128 stolen bases now, on pace for 188. Again, my guess was short, this time by 13 stolen bases, but again, there is a big difference between #3 and #4. Forth place is running at a 153-steals pace.

As for me, I'm running at a 126-stolen base rate, or 49 short. I can only account for about 10 missing stolen bases: I assumed a healthy Soriano would give me 25 and he's on pace for 14.

The reason I don't have the stolen bases is because I pretty much punted the category mid-draft. Every time I aimed to pick up some in the draft, I missed out on the guy I wanted and had to shift strategy. I felt better about my power situation, and I figured that I would have an easier time picking up stolen bases mid-season. Sadly, that hasn't been the case, though I still have two more months, so there is no reason why I cannot make some moves to solve some of these issues.

So, as we move into the final two months, I have to hope that some of my hitters get hot and make up some of the missing home runs; Connor Jackson has been doing just that. I will begin to focus more on saves, ERA and WHIP for the final two months, and I'll try to supplement my stolen bases through the FAAB wire.

I don't want to nitpick. Despite missing the mark on a couple of players, I'm doing very well and I'm certainly in striking distance.