An attorney is always warned, “Don’t ask a question of a witness unless you know what the answer is going to be.” Christopher Darden violated this cardinal rule years back when he had O.J. Simpson try on the “bloody glove”, and we all know what the final verdict was in that case.

 

If there was a corollary to this advice for fantasy columnists, it would be something to the effect of, “Don’t write about a player who is scheduled to pitch just hoursafter your deadline.”  Well, I’m breaching that one, and hoping that my results are a bit better than Darden’s and Marcia Clark’s.

 

I’m here today, Friday morning, telling you that Brian Bannister is a safe pick tonight to start against Tampa Bay. No, I didn’t consume a dozen Bloody Marys this morning, and I am not hung over from last night. I really expect Bannister to pitch effectively tonight against the mighty Rays. Rest assured, I’m not planning on wasting an entire column on Bannister. I’ll get to the point of the column after the Bannister example.

 

Brian Bannister has been awful this season. He stands 7-8, with an ERA of 5.49 and a WHIP of 1.41. He is on pace to strikeout just 117 batters in 189 innings. Yet, that isn’t the Brian Bannister that I drafted, nor is this the Brian Bannister that I am starting tonight for my contending National Fantasy Baseball Championship team. Here are the numbers for my Brian Bannister: 64 1/3 innings, five wins, 3.50 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 35 strikeouts.

 

My Brian Bannister is pretty effective, when used properly. The question, of course, is “How do you use Brian Bannister effectively?” The answer is a bit easier than one might think.

 

For reasons that aren’t always clear, some players perform better at home than on the road. Think Ervin Santana last season. Alternatively, some players perform better on the road than at home. Some pitchers “own” some hitters, and some hitters “own” some pitchers. There isn’t always a rhyme or a reason, but it just works out that way.

 

Brian Bannister is, and has been, a very effective fantasy spot starter. Let’s look first at his home and road numbers, prior to tonight’s game:

 

              IP     W    ERA         WHIP

Home    73      5      3.58           1.18

Road     45      2      8.60           1.78

 

Pretty remarkable. Yet, in 2007, Bannister was far better on the road than at home. Nothing ever really makes much sense, but these are trends that can often be followed for a given period.

 

Let’s go one further on Bannister’s start tonight. Bannister is set to face the Tampa Rays in Kansas City. The Royals have the second worst record in the American League presently, at 46-57. The Rays have the second best record in the American League at 59-42. Seems like a Rays’ walkover. Not so fast.

 

Kansas City is 23-27 at home, and Tampa is just 19-26 on the road. While Tampa, as a team, hits.267 at home, they only bat .249 on the road.

 

Looks a bit more even now, doesn’t it? Batters are hitting .286 against Tampa starter Edwin Jackson when Jackson pitches away from home. Las Vegas has Tampa as a very slight favorite, -115, with an over/under of nine runs.

 

I’m certainly not advocating that you bet on Kansas City. I wouldn’t make that bet. I am willing to bet that based upon the numbers and Bannister’s statistics for this season, that Bannister has a fighting chance to put up a quality start tonight.

 

The purpose of this column is thus to ask you to think about some numbers. We are well over half-way through the season, and teams have put up enough numbers to give those numbers some credence.

 

The bottom five hitting teams, on the road, this season are, in order:

1) Arizona (.223)

2) Colorado (.238)

3) Houston (.243)

4) Cleveland (.243)

5) Atlanta (.244)

 

You will note that none of the eight lowest-scoring teams in the Majors (San Diego, Washington, Seattle, San Francisco, Kansas City, Los Angeles Dodgers, Oakland and Toronto) are not on this list.

 

The top five road hitting teams are listed below:

1) St. Louis (.279)

2) Florida (.268)

3) Minnesota (.268)

4) Boston (.267)

5) New York Mets (.265)

 

You will note that the Rangers and Cubs (the Majors’ two top-scoring teams) are not found on this list.

 

Home statistics are an entirely different story. At home, the top five hitting teams are:

1) Chicago Cubs (.305)

2) Texas (.303)

3) Detroit (.302)

4) Boston (.297)

5) Colorado (.292)

 

On the negative side of the home average, the bottom five hitting teams at home are:

 

1) Washington (.233)

2) Florida (.238)

3) San Diego (.242)

4) Oakland (.246)

5) Los Angeles Dodgers (.251)

 

Florida’s presence in the top five road hitting teams is interesting, as they are also present in the bottom five home hitting teams.

 

So, what does this all mean? Well, if you are throwing CC Sabathia or Johan Santana, it doesn’t mean a whole lot. However, when you are considering whether to start Greg Smith at Tampa or Bannister at home against the Rays, it might mean something. I had that option, and decided on Bannister for tonight. Smith, a far superior pitcher this season to Bannister, went six innings on Wednesday at Tampa, giving up four runs and was saddled with the loss.

 

By the time you read this, you will know if I made the right decision. I, of course, think that I did, and expect Bannister to pitch six innings, give up six hits, two walks, two earned runs, four strikeouts, and (going way out on a limb), claim the victory tonight.

 

On a completely unrelated note, last week, Andy Marte’s mother, brother, sister, father, or someone with a man-crush on Andy wrote to tell me how stupid I was. According to Andy’s beloved mother, (oh by the way, thanks for reading), I am beyond ignorant, as young Marte is certainly not "worthless" (I actually called him useless, not worthless). Andy’s mother opined that Andy just hasn’t gotten a real chance to play, as “he played 160 at bats in 2006 when he was called up and has seen reduced placing time over the next two years.”

 

Mrs. Marte. I’m sure that Andy is a great son. He probably bought you a nice house, sends flowers over on Valentine’s Day, and remembers to call on your birthday. However, there is a reason why he has seen decreased playing time over the past two years: he isn’t nearly as good as everyone thought three years ago.

 

Andy might have some use as a door stop, bringing in the garbage cans, or picking up the laundry, but as I write a fantasy baseball column, and as Marte can’t hit my weight, he is useless from a fantasy standpoint. Sorry, but sometimes the truth hurts.

 

Until next week, best of luck.

 

Buster