Greetings after a nice long mid-way break, although that means the tough dog days of the summer lie ahead. Hopefully it also means that your team is in contention for a fantasy title. But even if not, as long as you are in a keeper league, the second half is the time to set up your keeper list for the coming season.
I thought this time we could look at some players I (with a little help from CREATiVESPORTS' Buck Davidson) think will pick it up the second half, or tank it.
First, Oakland dumped a couple of pitchers the last couple of weeks, and, there is a chance they could trade some more. For example, there is talk that Huston Street could be L.A. (as in Dodger) bound. Which may or may not be so, but be sure that Billy Beane will pull the trigger if he can get value for his value, and that is what you should try to do as well, whether driving for a title or simply stocking up for 2009.
Although it would look like Santiago Casilla would lead the list to take over the closer role, youngster Brad Ziegler is also a strong possibility. Ziegler, who converted eight saves in AAA Sacramento this year (2-0, 0.37) has kept it up in the bigs, going 1-0, 0.00 over 21.7 innings for Oakland. That is correct: Ziegler has yet to give up a run so far. Stash him now.
Likewise, Dallas Braden assumes the rotation spot vacated with the swap of Joe Blanton to the National League. Expect that reign to be short-lived and Gio Gonzalez to make his appearance before too long. Gonzalez is 7-6, 4.34 in Sacramento, having allowed just 97 hits over 110 innings, which is pretty good in a hitter's league. In a deep league, Braden is worth a shot; Gonzalez is in any format.
Speaking of Blanton, if you have him and can keep him, do so. Facing weaker offenses (every ninth hitter is a pitcher as opposed to a DH, to start with) and going to a team that can score some runs, Blanton should do well with the change. He has always struggled with low run support in Oakland, but he also won 42 games between 2005-07, averaging 208 innings a season over that spread. He does have a tough first match-up, though, against Johan Santana on Tuesday.
OK, looking to some players who might surge, or worse, experience a statistical purge during the second half, let's stay in Oakland where starter Justin Duchscherer has been terrific this far. "Duke" is 10-5, with a stellar 1.82 ERA and a WHIP of just 0.86. However, he has also thrown 108 innings thus far this season; and the most he has ever tossed as a pro was 155 in 2003 at Sacramento. Furthermore, Duchscherer had hip surgery last year. As much as I like him, and as wonderful his season has been, I have to think he will hit the wall sooner rather than later this season.
I have always been a Nomar Garciaparra fan, though I have to confess he seemed to get more than smitten with himself prior to his trade from Boston and acquisition by the Cubs. Nomar actually had a pretty good 2006 (.303-20-93) with a big drop in power and productivity in 2007 (.283-7-59). Nomar is just starting to play regularly, and though he is an injury risk, his on-base (.342) and power (.493) totals this year are a lot closer to the numbers he put up in '06 than last season. He belted a pair of dingers Friday and is a good selection in any format (because with his salary, he will play every day).
I also think that Delmon Young is worth a solid look. The Twins flychaser is presently at .299-4-39, which seems a disappointment compared to the .288-13-93 he registered last year, his first full season as a regular. However, he has had to adjust to a swap, and that could explain some early struggles. Also, if you look closely, you will see his slugging, at .405, only down .003 from last year, but his OBP, at .340, is up 24 points. In '07, Young walked 26 times, while whiffing 127, while in 2008, he has walked 21 times while striking out 62, a marked improvement.
If you are looking for a player who can help you some this year and will just keep getting better, with that star quality, look at the presently unassuming totals of Oakland's Carlos Gonzalez. Gonzalez did not hit with the splash of Jay Bruce, but he's improved from a .258 average with a .287 OBP in June to a .294 average with a .308 OBP in July. Gonzalez is a fluid runner and excellent defender, with a terrific arm. Best of all, he is a quick study. His improvements so far are subtle, but he will continue to improve and is a good selection in a deep league as he will play every day, and similarly is a good pick up for you in a keeper league.
I saw Edinson Volquez throw against the Giants early in the season and his stuff was overpowering; however, Volquez has been hittable over his past four starts, going 2-1, but with an ERA of 4.86 over his last 21.3 innings. Volquez did whiff ten Brewers his last start against them, but the league is getting a second and third look at the hot youngster, so the onus will be on Volquez to learn and adjust. Still, don't trade him; just modify your expectations for the rest of 2008.
That ends my thoughts, but Buck Davidson, who recently joined the CREATiVESPORTS staff, sent me a list of guys he thought you might want to grab or dump, and he had some pretty good ones:
Robinson Cano - One bad, make that horrible, month but fine since. I think he was over his skis with that .342 in 2006, but should at least be in the .280-.290 range at year's end.
Nick Markakis - Hit .325 post-break last year and .311 in '06. Career batting average is 32 points higher in the second half. Career at-bat/home run ratio is 1:20 post-break compared to 1:37 pre-break.
Aubrey Huff - Has anyone noticed what this notorious second-half guy's done in the first half?
Francisco Liriano - Looks to be dealing again at AAA.
Want a deep sleeper? Try Chris Davis of Texas. Hank Blalock's move back to thid base hands him the starting first base gig in Texas, and his prodigious power will hopefully offset what's bound to be a low batting average.
On the pan side:
Daisuke Matsuzaka - All those walks will eventually haunt him, and he imploded in the second half last year.
Xavier Nady - He's never batted over .280, and he's hitting .321 now? Only one way for that elevator to go.
Kevin Youkilis - Perennially bad second-half hitter slumped to .238 after the break last season, after hitting .328 in the first half. His career batting avergae is 63 points lower after the break.