In this space back in April, I looked back at my 2008 NFBC draft, drawing several painful, but necessary conclusions.
First, I believe I spent too much time preparing for the early and middle rounds and not enough on the end game. That forced premature use of FAAB money in feeble attempts to fill holes, not necessarily to grab emerging contributors.
Second, I noted my poor choices of old and/or injured players. On draft day, the bad karma began when I selected John Lackey, only to learn his first-ever disabled list stay in six MLB seasons was announced literally while our picks were being made.
18-game winner Kelvim Escobar in the 14th round didn’t seem all that much of a risk at the time, but he still hasn’t pitched an inning. Betting my corner infield on the tired trio of Carlos Delgado, Nomar Garciaparra and Eric Chavez was the stuff of “Just for Men” commercials. “Your pick is sick; your hitters are sitters; your offense is o-ffen-sive!”
All four began the season on the DL, with Escobar and Nomar since cut, Delgado continuing his downhill trend and Chavez back on the DL again and on very thin ice in terms of his continued participation on my team.
In hindsight, I was clearly asking for it on draft day. Taking 2005 National League Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter late in the game, round 24 to be exact, would be a nice second-half boost, I reasoned. The downside is tying up one of my seven reserve spots for four months or more. Of course, since then, Carp suffered the inevitable setback in his rehab.
My backup middle infielder, Cincinnati starting shortstop Alex Gonzalez, was another stupid late game pick in the 28th. The above plus Scot Shields of the Angels and DL additions of J.J. Putz of Seattle and Cleveland’s Victor Martinez shortly after opening day completed my initial amazing array of injured players - a full bench of seven players plus two more for a total of nine on the disabled list early in the season.
Don’t get me wrong. I am not complaining as much as I am pointing out that there are smart risks and dumb risks. Gambling on young players with identified upside potential is smart. Taking the rotted hulk of Nomar Garciaparra, even in the 27th round, is not.
DL summary from April
2nd round: Victor Martinez – hamstring
4th round: John Lackey – triceps
5th round: J.J. Putz – rib cage
14th round: Kelvim Escobar – shoulder – dropped
21st round: Eric Chavez – back
24th round: Chris Carpenter – elbow
26th round: Scot Shields – forearm – dropped
27th round: Nomar Garciaparra – wrist - dropped
28th round: Alex Gonzalez – knee – dropped
Fast forward to today. I am again approaching my own record with eight players now on the disabled list. The announcement of the latest, Angels catcher Mike Napoli, occurred after our FAAB deadline, so I couldn’t even nab a replacement.
When V-Mart went back onto the DL, I managed to scrounge Milwaukee’s Jason Kendall off the waiver wire for a mere $2 FAAB. Now, if Napoli will be out for any length of time, I will have to find another. NFBC rules allow me to substitute Napoli out mid-week, but alas, with a seven-man bench, including disabled players, I have no one other than V-Mart eligible to step in.
Four of the current eight are repeaters from before – Martinez, Putz, Carpenter and Chavez. The newcomers include Washington’s Elijah Dukes, who was coming on before injuring his knee and had been one of my best FAAB pick-ups of the season (also $2 back in April). Sounds like late August or early September for his return. Dukes may get cut along with Chavez.
On a team already short of power, losing Godzilla, aka Hideki Matsui, was another tough blow. After right knee surgery in 2007, his left one is acting up now. He could either be back by shortly after the break or undergo surgery, depending on which report you believe. To me, Matsui is dead. Too good to drop and too injured to use.
Toronto starting pitcher Shaun Marcum was one of my few delights this season, having been drafted in the 19th round and contributing far more. Alas, the man with the second-lowest ERA in the American League at the time (2.65) may come back in July from his turn on the disabled list.
I should note that I am not alone, well perhaps not collectively, though. Napoli, Putz, Matsui and Marcum are owned in 100% of the NFBC leagues. Martinez is taken in 96.9 of them (I’d like to be in the other 3.1%!), while Dukes is 75% owned, Chavez is at 53% and Carpenter taken in roughly 1/3 at 34%.
DL summary from July
2nd round: Victor Martinez – elbow
5th round: J.J. Putz – elbow
8th round: Hideki Matsui – knee
19th round: Shaun Marcum - elbow
20th round: Mike Napoli – shoulder
24th round: Chris Carpenter – elbow
21st round: Eric Chavez – back
April 20 FAAB: Elijah Dukes – knee
No, there is no way to avoid injuries. If I had it to do over, I would still have taken Marcum and Dukes. But I would not have broken from form by taking a catcher so early (Martinez), nor a closer so soon (Putz), especially when my second closer, Milwaukee’s Eric Gagne, imploded and was cut from my club, too.
I still have over 1/3 of my FAAB money, but finding impact offensive players at this stage of the game is very difficult. For example, Ryan Church, Carlos Quentin, Jonathan Sanchez and Jorge Cantu were all drafted by astute owners in the final rounds back in March, when I was grabbing the likes of Nomar.
Sometimes, we have to relearn from our mistakes, as I am doing in the 2008 NFBC!
Brian Walton’s work can also be found daily at stlcardinals.scout.com.