I’ve never been the luckiest man in the world. Parenthetically, I’m not sure if there is such a thing as “the luckiest man in the world,” but if there is, it sure isn’t me. If you recall the classic, Pride of the Yankees, you might remember the Lou Gehrig speech wherein Lou said, “Today, I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of this earth.” We all know what happened next, so perhaps being lucky is a bit overrated.
Have you ever stood in line at the store and watched as another line moved faster than yours. The same is true of the freeway. I used to moan and curse that I could never choose the right lane. Then it hit me, if there are five lines, the odds are that the line I chose is not likely to be the fastest. Indeed, with five lines, there was an 80% chance that my line would not be the fastest.
Sure, I could look at the checker and examine the baskets in front of me, trying to figure out which line would be the quickest. However, despite that research, I still had a much better than average chance of choosing the line that wasn’t the quickest.
The same is true about fantasy baseball. If you are choosing between three reasonably similar pitchers for one spot, the odds are that you are going to make the wrong decision. Sure, like the store example, you can research the opposing teams, the ball park, batting average against righties/lefties, grass v. turf, indoor v. outdoor, and day v. night trends, but you still have a better than 50% chance of making the wrong choice between three reasonably similar pitchers.
Historically, I couldn’t make the right decision between even two similarly situated players. That what makes this week so interesting.
Dan Uggla sprained his ankle. He’s been the anchor to my National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) team. He was originally day to day, and then on Monday, it was announced that he would rest until, likely, Thursday. On Thursday, the Marlins were scheduled to travel to Colorado for a four game series. While Uggla hasn’t had great success in the past at Coors Field, this looked like a good four game stretch. Then again, I have a capable back up in Mark DeRosa. With the Cubs’ injuries, DeRosa looked like he would get seven starts this week. Uggla, in a perfect situation, might get four starts, but all four would be at Coors.
After much thought, I ultimately went with DeRosa, who rewarded me with a two home run game Monday night. For once, I actually made the right decision.
Second base wasn’t my only decision, though. I had two pitching spots available and five starters to choose from, so I faced another difficult decision. I am in the top five in my league in ERA, ratio and strikeouts, so I didn’t want to start chasing two start starters merely for the strikeouts, as a bad outing or two could devastate my ERA and ratio.
My five starting options were Brian Bannister, John Lannon, Garrett Olson, Bronson Arroyo and Greg Smith.
First off, I eliminated Brian Bannister, as he was pitching on the road. Bannister has a 3.26 ERA at home, and a 7.78 ERA on the road. Needless to way, Bannister doesn’t start on the road for me, anywhere. Bannister is pitching tonight at Tampa Bay, after my deadline, so I don’t know if this was a good decision or not.
John Lannon can’t buy a win. He was scheduled to throw at Cincinnati on Thursday, and with Washington’s pathetic offense, a win was not likely. Pitching in Cincinnati isn’t the best for a soft throwing lefty, so I choose to sit Lannon as well. Lannon pitched OK on Thursday, striking out three with an ERA of 4.50 and a ratio of 1.33. He didn’t get the win, so he would have hurt more than helped.
I really wanted to start Garrett Olson. I had him in my starting lineup until late on Monday, but ultimately couldn’t do it. Olson was going at home against a poor Kansas City team. Olson had been more effective at home than on the road, and reasonably good against the Royals. He seemed safe. Then again, safe doesn’t win many titles, and I couldn’t pull the trigger on Olson.
This left me with both Bronson Arroyo and Greg Smith. I didn’t have a warm feeling inside. Arroyo was coming off of a week where he gave up eleven hits and ten runs in one inning. Let those numbers set in. He was so bad that he was cut in sixteen NFBC leagues. Yet, he was facing the Nationals, pitching at home. I held my nose and gave Arroyo the start. Threw six innings, Arroyo is pitching a shut out. With my deadline moments from now, I won’t know how Arroyo finishes, but I’m hoping for a quick hook before Bronson can do any damage.
Greg Smith was a tough choice as well. With two starts this week, Smith could help, or significantly hurt me. He was throwing twice on the road, first at the division leading (and best record in baseball) Angels, and then again at Chicago against the White Sox. The A’s don’t score for Smith, which is evidenced by the fact that he had just two wins in the past eleven starts. Smith’s first start was a complete game gem, and his second is Sunday, so the jury is out, but thus far, it looks like a great decision.
To win a league, you have to be willing to take chances. Starting Arroyo and Smith didn’t help my stomach, but it seems like it might help my team.
Here’s hoping you had a great 4th of July, and that your tough decisions work out.
Best of luck,
Buster