When I was in school, I was never late. Now that I am a member of the Board of Education, it seems that I am almost always late with my column. My apologies. Of course, there is sometimes a benefit to being late. The topic of this column is chasing, i.e., chasing wins and chasing strikeouts. Little did I know that on Monday, Bronson Arroyo would personify the pitfalls of chasing.
Let’s start with the obvious. In any given league, (barring a tie) there is likely only one team leading in any given category. In the NFBC, there are fifteen teams in each league, so it figures that fourteen teams are out of first place in the Wins and the Strikeout categories.
It’s been written here, and elsewhere, that strikeouts and wins are categories wherein a team can catch up. This follows because in the NFBC, each team has a seven person bench. A team wishing to catch up in wins and strikeouts can acquire a number of extra starting pitchers and then choose those pitchers who are scheduled for two starts. This isn’t rocket science, and you all know what I mean.
Here’s a list of my starting pitchers for this week, and their respective opponents:
Bronson Arroyo at Toronto and at Cleveland
Brian Bannister v. Colorado, v. St. Louis
Mark Buehrle at Dodgers, v. Cubs
Rich Harden v. Philadelphia
John Lannon v. Baltimore
Mike Mussina at Pittsburgh
Garrett Olson at Washington
Roy Oswalt v. Texas
Johan Santana v. Seattle, v. Yankees
Greg Smith v. Philadelphia
We start nine pitchers. I have BJ Ryan and Joe Nathan, and I am in need of saves, so I had to start these two closers. This left me with seven spots for starting pitching. Harden and Santana are no brainers, no matter whom they are facing. Five spots left. Buehrle was a two-start pitcher facing the hapless Dodgers, and then hosting the Cubs. This was a relatively safe choice as well. Bannister is a machine at home (and a disaster on the road), so a two-start week at home was enticing. With Ryan, Nathan, Harden, Santana, Buehrle and Bannister, six of my nine spots were filled.
Mike Mussina is among the AL leaders in wins, the Yankees are playing better ball, and Pittsburgh is still Pittsburgh, so Mussina starts. John Lannon has pitched remarkably well of late, although he can’t buy a win. Starting at home against Baltimore also looked like a nice position. This gave me eight pitchers with just one spot left.
Garrett Olson has been a disaster, so he I couldn’t consider him on the road. Texas can explode at anytime, as can Oswalt. While I wasted a high pick on Oswalt, I don’t want to compound that error by putting him in against the Rangers, especially since I have other options. So, Roy sits as well.
I am now left with two options. I can start the two-start Arroyo and shoot for one win, twelve strikeouts and hope not to hurt my ERA and WHIP. That would be a good two start effort for the likes of Arroyo. Alternatively, I could go with Greg Smith at home, in a pitcher friendly park, against the powerful Phillies. Having gone over the home/road splits, the lefty/righty splits, and every other statistic I could find, I ultimately opted for Smith over the two start Arroyo. Smith hasn’t gone yet, but Arroyo has. In case you missed it, here is what Arroyo did in the first of his two starts:
One inning, ten earned runs, twelve men on base, and one strikeout. Obviously, he didn’t get the win. To put into perspective just how bad Arroyo was, consider this. If your team has 999 innings pitched and an ERA of 4.00 and a WHIP of 1.330 prior to Arroyo’s inning, your team would now have 4.09 and a WHIP of 1.341. Put another way, had I started Arroyo, I would have dropped three spots in WHIP and one spot in ERA. Smith might prove worse, but I doubt it.
Arroyo was a popular play, apparently starting in 24 of the 26 NFBC leagues.
The moral of the story is clear. While two start marginal pitchers have the potential for a win or two and double figures in strikeouts, they also have the potential to simply wreak havoc on your ERA and WHIP.
Tread carefully.
Best of luck.
Buster