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A Look Ahead > Week 11

A.L. TWO-START STUDS

Roy Halladay (Bal, ChC) – 12 GS, 12 BB. Over 7.7 IP per start. Just another ho-hum Halladay season.

Rich Harden (LAA, @SF) – You know what he can do; just hope he doesn’t walk under any pianos and stays away from banana peels.

Ervin Santana (@Oak, Atl) – Santana, after disappointing so many in 2007, has been simply excellent in 2008, posting an excellent 67/16 K/BB in 83.3 IP.

A.L. TWO-START SCRUBS

Adam Eaton (@Atl, @StL) – Everyone likes to make fun of Wayne Krivsky for trading two of his starting position players for bullpen help, but at least he got //Daryl Thompson out of the deal. Jon Daniels deserves a hell of a lot more grief for trading Chris Young (the pitcher) and Adrian Gonzalez for Eaton and Aki Otsuka. What a disaster.

Luke Hochevar (@NYY, @Ari) – Yeah, he’s twice a first-round pick, but so what? Well, he’ll have a better career than Matt Harrington, at least.

Jarrod Washburn (@Bos, Was) – When Washburn was a free agent a few years ago, a lot of people linked him to the Brewers because they needed pitching and he was born in Wisconsin. Boy, I’m glad that didn’t happen. Oh wait

A.L. TWO-START WILDCARD

Joba Chamberlain (KC, @Hou) – Will he make a good starter? David Gassko over at the Hardball Times tackles the subject, writes a whole bunch, and comes to the conclusion that Joba has great stuff, showed poor control in his first start, and that one game isn’t enough data from which to draw any meaningful conclusions. I don’t think you need graphs for that.

N.L. TWO-START STUDS

Randy Johnson (@Pit, KC) – Last three starts: 19.3 IP, 17 H, 3 BB, 27 K. He’s baaaaaaaack.

Tim Lincecum (@Col, Oak) – Timmeh!

Edinson Volquez (@Flo, Bos) – Volquez is pitching over his head, sure—his ERA is almost lower than his WHIP!—but by how much? His FIP is 2.89, which is still plenty good. If he runs into an umpire with a big strike zone, he may well throw a no-hitter this year. His matchups this week are better than they look at first blush: despite Florida and Boston each having one of the best offenses in their respective league, the Marlins hit much better on the road and the Red Sox at home.

N.L. TWO-START SCRUBS

Burke Badenhop (Cin, @TB) – Unfortunately for Florida pitchers, with the Marlins defense behind them, there are a lot of bad-en-hops.

Zach Duke (Ari, @Bal) – Duke’s strikeout rate has declined every year in the big leagues, reaching a miniscule 3.1/9 IP this year. Coupled with his absurdly high hit rates (over 11 H/9 IP this year, 13.5 last year), and I think there’s a pretty fair chance that we are witnessing the death of a Major League career.

Barry Zito (@Was, @Col) – Zito went from being hilariously bad in April to being merely poor in May; his superficially good 3.49 ERA last month belies only a modicum of improvement in his peripherals. Come the fifth inning, you’ll be thinking: did Zito allow six runs or only five? Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement, I kind of lost track myself. If you’re thinking about putting Zito on your fantasy, you’ve got you ask yourself one question…oh hell, the Giants’ offense only scores four runs a game anyway

N.L. TWO-START WILDCARD

Phil Dumatrait (Ari, @Bal) – Dumatrait has been bizarrely effective for the Pirates. I wouldn’t bet the house on him or anything, but don’t bet it against him, either.

QUICK HITS

I love the MLB draft. I was the kind of kid that used to make lists of random things (yes, I have a girlfriend), so the raw amount of information the draft provides induces in me a sort of datagasm.

You may have heard of Florida State catcher Buster Posey, who was 50/50 to go #1 overall to the Rays up until the night before the draft. He led Division I in hitting with a .468 batting average and went #5 overall to the Giants. Me, though, I was always more interested in the silver medalists, the runners-up. In this case, it’s Chris Shehan, an outfielder from Georgia Southern. Where was Shehan drafted? #910 overall, by the Braves. You people who worry that spreadsheets and statistics have neutered scouting’s influence on the game, take heart.

When the Brewers took Minnesota outfielder Eric Decker in the 39th round, I did a double take. You see, Eric Decker was already well-known throughout the state of Wisconsin, only not as a baseball player. Decker is the Minnesota wide receiver who, during yet another brutal loss to the Wisconsin Badgers, hit All-Big Ten cornerback Jack Ikegwuonu square in the nuts. I wonder if he’ll sign.

Everybody knows that Scott Boras’ asking price for his players sometimes causes them to fall in the draft, but he must have asked for a whole, whole lot for his son Shane, who was drafted in the 35th round by the Cardinals.

Best draft? Well, I myself am partial to the Brewers, who had six picks before the second round was over, but Kansas City’s draft is hard to ignore. The Royals picked up the best high school hitter, Eric Hosmer, with the third overall pick, and then took a huge gamble on Tim Melville, who some thought was the best prep pitcher in the draft but who fell to the fourth round because of his asking price. If KC can somehow sign both players, while also inking high school arms Mike Montgomery (supplemental round) and Tyler Sample (third round), they will have a truly impressive haul of young talent.

posted @ Saturday, June 07, 2008 10:21 PM by Eric Johnson

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