I write this same column every year, and every year I get emails telling me that I am wrong. So, “bring ‘em on,” because as the names below clearly identify, I’m not wrong!
The end-game is overrated.
It doesn’t take a genius to come to the conclusion that the first few guys drafted on your team are, more often than not, going to out produce the last few guys taken. After all, no one expects Adam Lind to outdo Alex Rodriguez.
However, it has been said, and rightfully so, that fantasy championships are not won on the first few picks, but rather deeper in the draft. This, as indicated, is true. It is tough to make a really good pick in the first few rounds. Drafting A-Rod first or second in the draft isn’t a “really good pick.” He is drafted where he is expected to be drafted, and it is hard to outperform your position if you are the first or second guy picked. The same is true of David Wright, Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez. If you had one of the first four picks in your draft, and you chose one of these four guys, you have done o.k., just as expected. You haven’t, though, made a “really good pick.” Unlike in football, in baseball (unless you really screwed up) your league championship is neither won, nor lost, with your first pick.
Don’t misunderstand; while it is nearly impossible to win a league with your first three picks, it is quite possible to virtually kill your team with your first three picks. If you had decided that his was going to be Vladimir Guerrero’s year, and you passed on Chase Utley or Alfonso Soriano to pick Vlad, then you might be looking at an insurmountable hill to climb up the standings ladder. If you were of the opinion that Gary Sheffield was going to be injury-free this season, and that he would revert to his old, top-tem MVP numbers of a decade ago, then you should be ordering the CREATiVESPORTS.com football products about now.
So, if you can’t win the league with the first few picks, where can you win the league? Many pundits will point to the “end game,” claiming that picks made at the end of the draft can make the difference between a winning and losing fantasy season.
For those uninitiated, the “end-game” is the last few roster spots per team in a draft or an auction. These are often “filler” picks, guys to play positions you have neglected during the draft/auction. If you find a quality player in a fill-in position, and your opponents are deciding between Adam Loewen and Justin Germano for his/her last pitching spot, then you have given your team an advantage.
The “end-game” is much more important in an auction, as the owner with the most money near the end of the auction can control which of the players that owner takes. To that extent, the “end game” might be quite important. But what about draft leagues?
Let me make this clear. Draft leagues are not won or lost at the end of the draft. The End-Game is overrated. You don’t have to take my word for it. Let me provide you with empirical (so to speak) evidence. Here is a list of the last three rounds in my National Fantasy Baseball Championship draft. These are rounds 28 through 30 of the thirty-round, fifteen team league. The players listed in bold have not yet been cut. Any player not listed in bold was already cut.
Now, don’t start with the “I would have kept that player,” 20:20 hindsight. This particular NFBC league is full of sharks, and I believe that each of these owners did what was right for his team at the given time. If a player was cut, he was cut for a reason, and I am willing to bet if you checked similar quality leagues of 450 players (like the NFBC), you will find that these cut players were similarly cut in the majority of their leagues.
Out of forty-five picks, a whopping thirty-five have already been cut. This leaves us with just ten players who have stayed on their respective fantasy team for the first third of the season.
Starting from the top, Carlos Quentin has been a stud. It’s easy now to say that we all knew that all Quentin needed was a chance, but then again, he was passed over 415 times before someone pulled the trigger.
Jose Lopez is presently hitting about .300 with three home runs and two steals. His RBI and run numbers are respectable, and Lopez is contributing to some extent. Lopez’ NFBC team has used him for only 80 at bats, as Lopez was drafted as a back up middle infielder. So, even with decent numbers, Lopez really hasn’t helped much.
Cliff Lee is the surprise of the early pitching. No one could have expected Lee to excel to this level, not even Cliff. Lee is the exception that proves the rule.
Joe Saunders has pitched remarkably well thus far. His dismal strikeouts total (34 thus far) might indicate that Saunders is in for a rough last two-thirds of the season.
Jorge Cantu is doing exactly what was expected of him, and exactly why he was left around until near the end of the 29th round. Cantu is just about .260 with eight home runs and two steals.
Daniel Cabrera. Danger. Can blow up at anytime. Keep your WHIP and ERA safe. You have been warned. I had Cabrera last year. Never again. My heart can’t take the roller coaster ride. There’s a reason that Cabrera falls to the end of the draft. He doesn’t, and won’t help anyone win any title.
Innings eater Paul Maholm is still on his NFBC team. I had to double check, but this is true. I have no clue why. Maholm isn’t winning anything with his 3-5 record, 4.74 ERA or 1.43 WHIP.
Brian Fuentis was a good pick as a “closer-in-waiting,” with six saves and the Colorado job right now. Of course, Fuentis could be a set-up man in Colorado or elsewhere (New York anyone?) any day now. Until then, he is a productive late pick.
Christin Guzman is having a resurrection of sorts this year. Batting .300, Guzman has five home runs (don’t count on many more as his career high is ten), and three stolen bases. He scores a bunch, but only has a few more RBI than you do.
Kyle Lohse. See Maholm, Paul, above.
For what it is worth (admittedly not much), I drafted Pat Neshak (out for the season), Juan Rivera (couldn’t wait around for him to get a chance to play), and Joey Devine (got sent down by Oakland moments after I picked him).
Next week, I will look at rounds 25 through 27, further illustrating that the end game is indeed overrated. Until then, best of luck.
Buster