There is a certain art to projecting a Major League season. It is more than just pouring over reams of statistics and trends. It is more than just reading scouting reports. There is a little bit of luck thrown in there. After nearly sixty games, a pattern does develop.
Here is an opportunity to decide if you made a mistake or if there was no way to know.
The Tigers Below .500
When the Tigers traded for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, it was assumed that the Tigers would take the Central Division. Their only real competition was the Indians, and the Indians only significant improvement was a year of experience. Clearly things have not gone the Tigers way this year so far. Willis has been a bust, but that was something we saw coming. The biggest surprise we didn't see coming was Justin Verlander's K/9 of 5.28. He had a 5.85 ERA with a K/9 of 5.4 this spring. Maybe we should have.
Complete and Total Implosion of the Rockies
If there is anything I didn't see coming it is the complete and total implosion of the World Series runner up, the Colorado Rockies. Jeff Francis has been a disaster. Ubaldo Jimenez has struggled. It turns out that their only good starter has been Aaron Cook, but how long do you expect that to last? Someone should check the humidor. This looks like the Rockies of old.
Tampa Bay's Improved Defense
How important is fielding? Tampa Bay gave up the fourth most errors in baseball. This year, they have given up the fewest. Because they have improved so much, their pitching has improved across the board. What is interesting is that there really hasn't been major changes, it is just experience. There is no real way to have caught this.
Cardinal's Junk Pile Pitching Wins
We figured that Adam Wainwright would have a breakout season. He is. If you would think that Todd Wellemeyer and Kyle Lohse would also have great seasons, we'd think you were crazy. More importantly, Albert Pujols has stayed healthy and has received support from people like Ryan Ludwick and Skip Schumaker. Didn't see this coming...
My Surprises and Disappointments
Those surprises and disappointments have certainly affected how I am doing.
I have been certainly disappointed with Brad Hawpe. He is 28 this year and hit a nice .291 with 29 home runs last year. I was looking for .290 and slightly more power, like 32 home runs. Right now, he's on pace for 9. He's been a major part of the implosion.
Delmon Young has also been a major disappointment. I figured he'd hit 15 to 20 home runs. Right now, he has zero. At this point, I'm just holding on to him because there isn't anything to replace him with. That and I can still hope that one day, he just explodes. I'm still entitled to hope.
It is hard to be upset with B.J. Upton, but after hitting 24 home runs last year, I figured he'd hit at least 20. He's on pace to hit 9. As I passed on Albert Pujols and the threat of major injury for him, I'd like him to give me at least 20 home runs for a #2 pick.
I took a big chance on Bobby Crosby and he hasn't gotten hurt and he hasn't been bad for a 23rd round pick. I'll take .260 with 80 runs and RBI from a late round pick.
Like in Tout Wars, I picked up Connor Jackson, and have reaped great benefits from him.
I knew he'd be good this year, but 7-1 with a 2.23 ERA was more than I expected from Tim Lincecum.
In the year of the Great Closer Crash, I invested in Jonathan Papplebon and Joe Nathan. I think they are the only two closers that have been reliable all year.
Patterns
I do have some patterns forming. I'm lower than expected in home runs. I need my guys to pick it up, because looking at the free agent pool, there isn't much there.
I'm middle of the pack in stolen bases. Now that Alfonso Soriano is healthy, it would be nice for him to steal 20 instead of just 12 like he is on pace for. I'll need to find some help here.
Pitching wise, I'm hoping that Ubaldo Jimenez can find some control. I like his strikeouts, but everything else stinks. Now that Homer Bailey is getting called up, I am hoping that he'll replace Jimenez in the rotation.
I'm also hoping that Joel Zumaya gets through his rehab and ends up taking the closer job from Todd Jones. Jones hasn't been great as the closer, but it is tough to make an assessment when the Tigers have been so bad.
For the most part, I've avoided the injury bug, so I'm in the mix. I'm 5th in my league and 135th overall.