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Baseball Hotpage > May 26, 2008 (Week 9)

Happy Memorial Day holiday, one and all. As noted, far and wide, this is the time to really assess your team seriously, and determine the realistic chances you can compete.

Naturally, if you are not in a keeper league, that does mean playing it a little differently, depending upon your place in the standings.

But, in keeper leagues, now is the time to either pull out stops and trade for the guys you need to stay competitive, or, on the other side of the spectrum, time to dump the overpaid stars, maybe with some upside this year, and build a good core to draft around in 2009.

I actually get huge pleasure in building a new team, but obviously there is similarly a lot of joy in being a contender, but rebuilding is a great way to stay engaged. For I know, as painfully as most of you, how tough it is to manage a team at the bottom rung in a year-to-year league (which means counting the days till your football draft).

This time, since we are at a bit of a milestone, I want to look at some names who seem to be over or under achieving so far, and whether these players are worth acquiring, or swapping.

First though, an arm anyone in a mixed or NL only format has to pay attention to is that of the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw, a first round pick of Los Angeles in 2006, had been pitching in AA Carolina (0-3, 2.28 over 43 innings with 47 strikeouts) and made his major league debut Sunday. In that game he went six innings, allowing a five hits, a walk, while whiffing seven, and Kershaw would have earned a win had the lead held (LA wound up winning in the tenth. He is really a must selection in every format right now.

OK, so, how about some of those guys for whom you shelled out some bucks, but are not rewarding you as hoped?  Well, one of the guys I have hyped going into the season was Toronto's Dustin McGowan, a fellow I grabbed in both AL only leagues in which I play, paying $18 in each, for his services. Which, going into Sunday represented as 2-4, 4.21, not horrible but not worth the #1 or #2 status he was given on my teams. But, if you saw McGowan Sunday (seven innings, a run, seven strikeouts, and of the nine hits four were flukes) feel comfortable that he will indeed get it together and be among the most sought after American League starters second half and into next year. Look at McGowan's last four starts, and his second half totals of last year, and you will see why I am so confidant (and yes, Toronto will have a great starting three). (PS, he was clocking at 97 MPH Sunday.)

What about Gary Sheffield and Detroit? Well, I think Detroit will get it together as they have too good a team and manager to wallow for four more months. The question is if it happens at the right time. Because every team has a hot spell. As for Sheffield, I can only offer this disturbing set of stats. Over the second half of 2007, Sheff went .203-4-17, and he currently rests at an eerily similar .208-3-12. Does he still have some pop, or a last hurrah? Probably. A small one. Not enough to trade for, however, but if you can trade him and get some name value, do so.

OK, while we are looking at Detroit, I have Justin Verlander on my STATS team. In fact he was my #1 right handed starter, and, well, so goes Justin, so go the Lawr of Averages. But, as with his team, Verlander is better than his stats indicate, and he has pitched a lot better (1-1, 1.89, over his last three starts including Sunday) over 19 innings, with thirteen whiffs. With his present 2-7, 5.16 totals, there are again likely some panicky owners out there ready to dump. Take advantage.

Is Tony Pena better than his .162-0-7 totals so far? Yeah, but not much. He did hit .267-2-47 last year over a full complement of games, but Pena also logged an OBP of just .289 and slugging of .356. Thing is, Pena will have to put up some huge numbers from now on out to get close to that average, and, well, that is not going to happen. Even in a deep AL only league, where everyday players and at-bats are everything, you are probably better off playing Jorge Valendia than Pena right now.

What about Texas wonderboy, Josh Hamilton and his fabulous .337-12-53 totals so far? The guy is arguably the best all around player in the game today, spectacular at the plate, and capable of breathtaking plays on defense. If you are rebuilding, Hamilton is exactly who you want to target, and be willing to give up something to get him. If you can pry him free from a possessive owner.

Troy Glaus owners have to be dissapointed with his numbers of .276-2-32, but, well, they should not be. Glaus' RBI totals are great, and for the season his average is over 20 points higher than his career average, and his OBP (.387) is 28 points higher. True, his slugging is down 85 points, but if those on-base numbers are really indicitive of more plate discipline and a better eye, the power will come. Patience.

Evan Longoria is very likely this year's version of Ryan Braun.

Joe Saunders is for real. He will get hit some, but he keeps the ball down and throws in the low 90's with great control.

I want to trust Barry Zito and Tom Gorzalaney, but I need more time. As noted, if anyone can become the new Jamie Moyer, it is Zito. Gorzalaney is simply too young to bail on. But, back to Zito, watch his secondary numbers, and try to forget his team is not very good. If he can reduce the number of walks and homers he is allowing, Barry may well have righted himself.

Edinson Volquez is also for real, in the best of ways. Johnny Cueto, however, is not there yet, nor is Max Schrezer (but close).

Cliff Lee is having a great start, but, he is not as good as his numbers. Not that I am knocking him, but Lee is the kind of guy to swap now in a year-to-year league to a struggling team for some predictable, steady production. Especially since you can probably get a couple of guys for him in a deep AL only format.

That's it for this time. See you again in a week, and have a great and safe holiday!

 

 

posted @ Monday, May 26, 2008 12:15 AM by Lawr Michaels

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