This week’s Minor-ity Report will focus on potential rookie of the year contenders in 2008 in the American League. Our analysis will center upon the following cast of characters: Clay Buchholz, Joba Chamberlain, Evan Longoria, Adam Jones, and Ian Kennedy.
1. Clay Buchholz:
What can’t we say about Clay Buchholz? Buchholz was chosen in the first round by Boston in the 2005 amateur draft with their 42nd overall pick. Unlike fellow Rookie of the Year competitor Joba Chamberlain, Clay Buchholz was given another year of seasoning at the minor league level before his 2007 call to the Bigs. After being drafted, Buchholz enjoyed a brief audition through the New York Penn League before splitting 2006 between single and double A. During 2006, Buchholz averaged 1.18 K/IP in 119 frames, posting a 1.13 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP in A ball, and a 2.62 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP in AA Greenville. In a 2007 season spent climbing from Portland of the Eastern League (AA) to Boston and the bigs, Clay Buchholz notched a 1.77 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP in 86.2 frames and a 3.96 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in 38.2 innings pitched. He improved upon a dominant 2006 by averaging 1.37 K/IP in double and triple A in 2007, while allowing fewer long-balls in more innings than any prior professional season.
Theo Epstein and company finally decided that it was time for a change, and an opportunity to give their top prospect a flier at the major league level. So at just 22 years of age, Clay Buchholz was given three game-starts, making a total of only four appearances and totaling 22.2 innings. In only his third major league appearance and in just his second start for Boston, Buchholz pitched a no-hitter against Baltimore leading the Sox to a 10-0 victory, and bolstering team morale down the stretch. What comes next for the Boston phenom? In his only start of 2008, Buchholz tossed five strong frames against Toronto, whiffing seven batters. He will be streaky, at times, but bet on this young gun to vie for top honors in the AL Rookie of the Year voting.
2. Joba Chamberlain:
Joba Chamberlain was drafted by New York in the 1st round with the 41st overall pick in the 2006 amateur draft at the tender age of 20 during his sophomore season at University of Nebraska. Slated for the fast track to the big apple, Chamberlain whizzed through the Florida State League (A), the Eastern League (AA), and the International League (AAA) all the way to the majors in his first year of professional baseball. Joba was widely held by Yankee fans to be the central factor leading to the team’s rally to capture the AL wild card and nearly steal the 2007 AL East division title from the rival Red Sox. With less than adequate starting pitching, the New York heavily relied upon its bullpen during the 2007 campaign. That bullpen largely collapsed when players such as Kyle Farnsworth, Brian Bruney, and Luis Vizcaino seemed to collectively conspire to make every close game an adventure in misfortune. In an attempt to inject new life into the depleted Yankee pen, club brass called upon minor league starter Joba Chamberlain, but restricted him to middle and late inning relief duty. Chamberlain quickly became the go-to guy in tight jams and the set-up man for closer mainstay Mariano Rivera.
It is clear that Joba Chamberlain was not promoted by chance, but rather as a result of his dazzling statistical performance at each prior level. In A ball at Tampa, Chamberlain tossed 40 innings, allowing 25 hits, 11 walks, and fanning 51 batters. Joba posted a 2.03 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and averaged 1.28 K/IP in single A. Good enough for a promotion to AA, Chamberlain threw 40.1 more frames surrendering 32 hits, 15 walks, and stiking out an astounding 66 batters, good for a 1.64 K/IP average. Following yet another rapid promotion, this time to AAA, Joba allowed five hits and notched 18 K’s in a preparatory eight inning stint of ostensibly mop-up relief work. With the Yankees desperate for help in the bullpen, and with little left to prove in the minor leagues, Chamberlain got the call to the bigs. Having averaged 1.28, 1.64, and 2.25 K/IP in single, double, and triple A, respectively during his whirlwind through the minors, Joba actually managed 1.42 K/IP in 24 major league innings. In that limited major league audition while facing only 91 total batters, Chamberlain permitted a paltry 12 hits and 6 walks while posting a whopping 34 strikeouts to go with an infinitesimal 0.38 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and .145 BAA.
Following up his stellar 2007 campaign, Joba Chamberlain begins 2008 in the ‘pen for the Yankees. Joe Girardi and Yankee brass has declared that Chamberlain is destined to return to starting, eventually. But, will he compile enough wins, saves or K’s to distinguish himself from the more conventional choices for 2008 Rookie of the Year honors? Time will tell. But, the hype seems justifiable as Chamberlain has continued his lights-out dominance in his encore during ’08.
3. Evan Longoria
Many fantasy baseball owners expressed shock and dismay when Longoria was sent down to Triple A to start the season. But fast forward only a couple weeks, and Longoria is already back where he belongs, manning the hot corner for the Rays. In fact, many believe Longoria will be this year’s Ryan Braun, and his minor league numbers support that belief.
The third overall pick in 2006, Longoria cruised through three levels of professional ball in his first season. In 143 Single A at-bats, Longoria walloped minor-league pitching, to the tune of .350 batting average and a .422 OBP%. Equally impressive were his 12 homers, 9 doubles, and 39 RBIs. His promotion to Double A that same year was a mild adjustment period. There, Longoria hit a mediocre .267, but had 6 homers in 105 at-bats.
After his impressive debut season, the Rays gave Longoria one more tune-up year in the minors in 2007. Starting back in Double A, Longoria showed the type of adjustments that all great players undergo. He hit .307, with a .403 OBP%, 21 homers, 21 doubles, and 76 rbi’s in 381 at-bats. After flashing his skill-set to scouts and fans alike, Longoria won MVP for the Southern League. His call-up to Triple A later that season was also fairly impressive, as Longoria hit .269 with a .398 OBP%, 5 homers, 8 doubles, and 19 RBIs in only 104 at-bats.
Longoria has a sweet swing and has shown the ability to hit for both power and average. He is adept at making adjustments and, at only 22 years of age, should soon be a perennial all-star for the Rays, and promises to be a strong contender for AL Rookie of the Year.
4. Adam Jones
At only 22-years of age, this former first round pick by the Seattle Mariners finds himself in 2008 starting in the outfield for the Baltimore Orioles. Playing for the Orioles – a team that is rebuilding -- Jones will be given a lot of leeway to learn on the job.
After a few decent season in the minors, Jones really attracted attention in 2005. His combined numbers from Single and Double A that season were 15 homers, 30 doubles, 66 RBIs, and 13 steals in 499 at-bats. From that point on, Jones was fast-tracked to the majors.
In 2006, playing in Triple A Tacoma, Jones smacked 16 homers, stole 13 bases, and hit .287 in 380 at-bats, soon earning a promotion to the Mariners. There, Jones struggled to the tune of a .216 batting average with only 1 homer in 74 at-bats. Consequently, Adam Jones found himself back in Triple A for the 2007 season. Showing marked improvement, Jones hit .314 with 25 homers, 27 doubles, and 84 RBIs in 420 at-bats.
In the off-season, Jones was one of the focal points of the Erik Bedard trade. Now calling Camden Yards his home ballpark, Jones may just out-power other AL rookies this season.
5. Ian Kennedy
Kennedy attracts less fanfare than Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain, but might just finish the season with superior numbers. He has excellent command of his pitches, and seems expert at suppressing the long-ball. Although he is not overpowering, he manages to fool hitters and keeps the ball down in the zone. His minor league numbers suggest that he could develop into a solid number two starter.
A former first round pick, last year was Kennedy’s first full season of professional ball. Yet, he climbed all the way from Single A to the majors. In Single A, Kennedy tossed 63 innings, let up an infinitesimal 39 hits, walked 22 and struck out 72 to go with a mind-numbing 1.29 ERA. In Double A Trenton, Kennedy did much of the same. He threw 48.2 innings, let up 27 hits, walked 17, struck out 57 and had a 2.59 ERA. Triple A – yep, you guessed it – another dominant performance. There, he pitched 34.2 innings, let up 25 hits, walked 11, struck out 34 and had a 2.08 ERA.
Figuring Kennedy, like his namesake in the 1960 election, could not be stopped, the Yanks promoted him to the Bigs for a reality check. But Kennedy continued to impress. In 19 innings of work, Kennedy let up 13 hits, 9 walks, struck out 15 and posted a 1.89 ERA.
These eye-popping numbers reveal that Ian Kennedy as a true talent, but it is unrealistic to expect his numbers to remain that good. Indeed, in 11 innings pitched thus far in 2008, Kennedy has let up 14 hits, walked 8 and has a 8.73 ERA. It appears that major league hitters are adjusting to Kennedy’s arsenal and teaching Kennedy that major league baseball isn’t quite that easy. If Kennedy is able to make his own adjustments, and regain his seemingly derailed mechanics (his walk-allowed have taken a significant turn for the worse), he is certainly capable of becoming a dominating force in the AL. Not to mention the fact that playing for the Yankees should get him plenty of “W’s” which always look good when it comes time for Rookie of the Year voting.
The rookie of the year award is one of baseball’s most coveted titles. For even a casual fan, it is exciting to watch a relative unknown blossom into a star, and if you happen to have that player on your Roto team, all the better. Each of the players listed above have the talent to be this year’s rookie of the year, but for our money, Bucholz and Longoria have the best chance due to a combination of playing time and talent.