As is often the case, this article is not bragging about success, as that is pretty boring, to be honest. Instead this is all about sharing mistakes so perhaps they won’t be repeated, by either one of us. Besides, I have a lot more to say on the latter subject than the former!

 

From the perspective of a month later, looking back at my 2008 NFBC draft, I believe I spent too much time preparing for the early and middle rounds and not enough on the end game. That forced premature use of FAAB money to fill holes, not necessarily to grab emerging contributors.

 

In a post-draft article elsewhere on this fine site, http://creativesports.com/Staff/BaseballArticles/tabid/70/ctl/ArticleView/mid/390/articleId/1903/GrabBagStrikeOneStrikeTwoStrikeThreeLetsPlayBall.aspx , I noted my draft day bad karma in selecting John Lackey, whose first-ever disabled list stay in six MLB season was announced literally while our picks were being made.

 

Taking a risk on 18-game winner Kelvim Escobar in the 14th round on its own wouldn’t have been terrible, but coupled with the news about his teammate Lackey, it became a real downer when it was learned that Escobar’s season may be over.

 

Before my NFBC squad ever reached the season opener, the DL list grew and grew and grew, sort of like Pinocchio’s proboscis.

 

In hindsight, I was clearly asking for it on draft day. Taking 2005 National League Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter late in the game, round 24 to be exact, would be a nice second-half boost, I reasoned. The downside is tying up one of my seven reserve spots for three months or more.

 

That makes three DL’ers.

 

While young players were flying off the shelves in my Orlando League 3 draft sooner than I felt was prudent, I instead scooped up veterans at positions with some depth, specifically at the corners.

 

Having waited until the 11th to take a fair risk on Carlos Delgado at first, I still didn’t have my CIF as the 21st round rolled around. Though I knew his back was bothering him, I still selected the best man on the board, Oakland’s Eric Chavez. He hasn’t played since and began the season on the disabled list.

 

That’s four.

 

Talk about blind. I had actually been at Dodgertown the day that both Andy LaRoche and Nomar Garciaparra went down in consecutive innings, as I recall. Yet, in the 27th, I was looking for a corner backup and the shine of oft-injured Nomar’s multi-positional eligibility got in my eyes. He hasn’t played again, either, before heading to his home away from home, the DL.

 

Nomar is five.

 

Scot Shields has consistently been one of the best set-up men in the game. With K-Rod in his walk year and there being doubt as to his signability, I thought at worst I would have an ERA and WHIP saver and best a stealth closer later on. I plucked Shields in the 26th.

 

By March 24th, Shields had been shut down due to forearm tightness and I didn’t like the sounds of the medical reports I was hearing. I decided to cut him loose.

 

That makes six.

 

On draft day, I had also waited to nab a backup middle infielder in the final rounds. Cincinnati starting shortstop Alex Gonzalez was out there, but it was known he wouldn’t be ready to start the season. Still, I didn’t think much of taking him in the 28th. Key words being, “didn’t think”. Once all the other DL troubles ensued, I knew A-Gon had to be gone.

 

That completes an amazing array of injured players - a full bench of seven players on the DL to start the season, in what could be a record.

 

Don’t get me wrong. That is much more about bad planning than it is bad luck. I could have averted most of these had I drafted more carefully and paid more heed to the medical reports out of spring training.

 

It seems quite obvious that it is better to take a slightly lesser player who will actually play than a better player who won’t. Wonder why I didn’t pay attention?

 

One of our columnists recently warned of the dangers of aggressively bidding our $1000 of FAAB to start the season. He clearly wasn’t faced with the prospect of opening the season with no corner infielder and the likes of 29th and 30th rounders David Bush and Gavin Floyd in the active lineup.

 

Given that, my goal heading into the first FAAB period on March 30 was to get a CIF and two starters.

 

Having seen new Cardinal Kyle Lohse join the team in mid-March in good shape, I decided to go get him. The other pitchers on my list were three who pitched well in spring training. All three are on bad clubs, however - Mark Hendrickson of the Marlins and Paul Maholm and Zach Duke of the Pirates.

 

Looking at matchups, the defacto #1 in Florida had two first-week starts. The bad news is that the opener was against Johan Santana. Forget Hendrickson. Having been burned by Maholm most recently, I decided to give the edge to Duke.

 

To fill my corner spot, it seemed natural to grab Chavez’ backup Jack Hannahan. That two-run homer on opening day was nice, too, even if it is revisionist history, perhaps. Scott Hatteberg as my second choice was barely palatable, so I doubled my paper bid on Jack to $22 when entering my blind bid online.

 

I offered $66 for Lohse, which was prescient. The second-place bid was $65. Wow! Still, I couldn’t feel too good, as I wasted $31 on the other two, with no other bidders in on either Hannahan ($22) or Duke ($11). Just crickets. In fact, only four of the 17 players bid upon that week in Orlando League 3 had more than a single offer. On the other hand, I needed players!

 

Dropped were Shields (26th), Gonzalez (28th) and Escobar (14th). If the latter has a miraculous comeback later on, so be it. I can barely afford one Carpenter on my bench, let alone two. If/when I need another MIF down the line, one will surely be out there on the wire. In other words, Gonzalez was a wasted pick from the very start.

 

For what it’s worth, I wasn’t alone. Across all the NFBC leagues in all formats, Shields was dropped by two dozen other teams that week, Escobar was waived by 40 others and Gonzo was cut by 15 NFBC owners in addition to me.

 

So, why wasn’t I seeing this clearly on draft day, then?

 

In conclusion, even before the season effectively began, I exhausted almost 1/10 of my full-season budget, $99, mostly to correct sloppy picks made late in the draft. There is still time to recover, but better planning for the end-game would have saved me money that could be valuable later.

 

Postscipt: Post FAAB, feeling slightly better about my recovery the next day, I sat down to gorge myself on the (real) opening day games. It took less than two innings for more misfortune to strike.

 

My second pick, catcher Victor Martinez, left Cleveland’s opener in the second inning after injuring his hamstring while running the bases. I have never taken a catcher so early in any draft any time in my years of playing fantasy and I am hoping the baseball gods aren’t continuing to punish me for my earlier drafting indiscretions. Of course, I didn’t execute my plan to take Ryan Doumit as an outfielder/backup catcher…

 

Then on the second day, Seattle closer J.J. Putz went out with a ribcage injury. That took my NFBC DL count back up to five even after having dropped three of them on the first FAAB round. Allowing mid-week injury replacements, my choice to replace Putz was either to count on Gavin Floyd to dominate the Tigers in Detroit or hope that Andrew Miller didn’t pitch again after getting torched by the Mets his first time out. I wisely chose the latter.

 

Summary

 

2nd round: Victor Martinez – hamstring

4th round: John Lackey – triceps

5th round: J.J. Putz – rib cage

14th round: Kelvim Escobar – shoulder – dropped

20th round: Chris Carpenter – elbow

21st round: Eric Chavez - back

26th round: Scot Shields – forearm – dropped

27th round: Nomar Garciaparra - wrist

28th round: Alex Gonzalez – knee - dropped

 

The bottom line is to do as I say, not as I do, people!

 

 

Brian Walton’s work can also be found daily at stlcardinals.scout.com.