The season is less than two weeks old. Just over five percent of the games have been played. Put a different way, just under 95% of the season remains. If this were an NBA game, 2.4 minutes would have elapsed. If this was an NFL game, 3 minutes would be off the clock. Put yet another way, IT’S STILL EARLY. Calm down. The Statistics thus far mean pretty much nothing.
Yes, it’s nice to be leading your league. It would be nice to go wire to wire. However, it’s far too early to fall in love with your overachievers, and far too early to begin to market your under achievers.
In that spirit, here’s a look at some of the over achievers and under achievers to date (as of Friday morning):
Over Achievers
Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks. Reynolds is leading the league in home runs, but has Chad Tracy looking over his shoulder. Reynolds has a history of having trouble making contact, and indeed has struck out ten times already in just 36 at bats.
Xavier Nady, Pittsburg Pirates. Nady was on fire during the first week of the season, and has already cooled off. His numbers, to date, project to 54 home runs and 170 RBI. If he hits 21, he will establish a new career high. Don’t bet on it.
Jason Kendall, Milwaukee Brewers. Once upon a time, Kendall ran a bit. He doesn’t run much anymore, and his power, RBI and runs numbers have always been sub par. Last year, Kendall hit all of .242 in town towns. With batting average as his only potential positive, and with that declining, Kendall has little or no fantasy value. Kendall is presently batting .538 with 5 RBI. Last season, Kendall drove in all of 41 runs, and hasn’t driven in more than 58 since 1998.
A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago White Sox. Keeping with the catcher theme, Pierzynski is off to a great start with seven RBI in seven games. As A.J. averaged 60 RBI per season over the past three, a significant drop off is definitely on the horizon.
Aubrey Huff and Joe Crede are tied for the American League lead in RBI with 11. Does anyone expect either of these two to be in the top 40 in RBI by season’s end? Of course not, meaning that both are going to revert to their past form and pretty much be below average hitters at power positions in a fantasy lineup.
Under Achievers
Prince Fielder hasn’t yet hit a home run. This puts him tied with the likes of Juan Pierre and Willy Taveras, and behind such noted sluggers as Jaime Burke and Jesus Flores. Fielder is going to get his; it’s only a matter of time. Of note, the homer-less list also includes Troy Tulowitski, Khalil Greene, Jason Giambi, Billy Butler, Nick Markakis, Hunter Pence, Carlos Beltran, Jose Guillen, Alex Rios and BJ Upton, all of whom were drafted in whole or in part for their respective power.
Magglio Ordonez, Detroit Tigers. Magglio has one more RBI than you do. Of course, Mags has 37 at bats, and you haven’t had any. Mags also is making in the neighborhood of $15 million this year. At this rate, the Tigers will be paying about $750,000.00 per RBI.
Andrew Jones, Los Angeles Dodgers. 2007 was pretty bad, but this year is beyond bad. Jones is hitting .129, with ten strikeouts in 31 at bats. He has knocked in one run, and has failed to score a single run. Andruw is not making Ned Colletti look very intelligent right now, especially in light of Colletti’s prior signings of Juan Pierre and Jason Schmidt.
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers. Where did Kemp go in your draft? To date, Matt’s got zero stolen bases to go along with his zero home runs and one stolen base. Nice pick up.
Jack Cust, Oakland Athletics. So, you didn’t pay a lot for Cust, certainly not nearly what you’ve wasted thus far on Andruw Jones or Magglio, but Cust still is an under achiever. Who’d have thought that he would have twelve times as many strikeouts as home runs, or that he would have three hits after ten games?
Ned Colletti. Ok, I’m not sure if I can include Ned in the under achiever list, as he has never achieved before, but name me one person who speaks English, Spanish, Korean or Japanese, who couldn’t do a better job than Ned. Go ahead, take your time, I’ll wait.
Other than Colletti who is in way over his head, the under achievers will improve and the over achievers will come back to earth. It’s just a matter of time. Have a little patience, and keep from checking out the standings, and everything will likely turn out fine. Unless, of course, your name is Ned.
Best of luck.
Buster