This week’s Minor-ity Report will focus on potential rookie of the year contenders in 2008 in the National League.  Our analysis will center upon the following cast of characters:  Justin Upton, Kosuke Fukudome, Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus, Joey Votto, and Cameron Maybin.

 

1. Justin Upton:  Justin, younger brother of roto-supertalent B.J., is at the forefront of his class of NL Rookie of the Year contenders.  Upton has power, speed, and is certainly the youngest of the fresh faced National Leaguers vying for top honors in ’08.  He is the most mature, has the best job security (after the trade of Carlos Quentin to Oakland, leaving fifth outfielder Jeff Salazar as his chief competition), and potentially has the highest ceiling of the bunch.

 

2. Kosuke Fukudome:  At age 31, and after 8 seasons with Chunichi of the Japanese League, Fukudome is hardly a rookie, in the conventional sense of the term.  Yet, the Cubs wasted no time replacing Jacque Jones with the latest and greatest offensive import of 2008.  Although he will call Wrigley Field his home, we expect steep drop-offs from his prior production abroad.  What can realistically be expected of this former Japanese All-Star?  Think Akinori Iwamora with a better average and more RBI.  Whether that will translate into Rookie of the Year numbers will largely depend on the performance of his younger, native cohorts.

 

3. Jay Bruce:  With the signing of Corey Patterson to a one-year contract to man center field, Bruce will have to hit the eyes off the ball to earn a major league job.  Bruce is inarguably talented and has found little difficulty abusing minor league pitching.  If he has a weakness, it is that Bruce lacks the kind of plate patience we like to see from burgeoning talent.  He is young, and will enter 2008 a 20 year old major league hopeful, so there is plenty of time to learn and mature.  If the Reds fall out of contention, look for a deal involving either Patterson, Dunn, or Griffey to clear a path for the rising star, Jay Bruce.

 

4. Colby Rasmus:  After leading the Texas league with 29 homers last season and swiping 18 bags in ‘07, this former first round draft pick has fantasy baseball owners salivating at his potential.  In fact, some scouts think at his prime he will put up Grady Sizemore-like numbers.  With an unproven outfield of Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan, and Skip Schumaker, there could be room sooner than you may think for Rasmus to break into the starting lineup.  Expect him to struggle with his batting average initially, but he could be this season’s Chris Young. 

 

5. Joey Votto:  One of the most promising rookie sluggers, Votto is a good bet to compete for rookie of the year once he divests Scott Hatteberg of the starting first base job in Cincinnati.  Votto is expected to begin as an understudy to Hatteburg, but as soon as he shows himself capable we expect Dusty Baker to give Votto the full time job.  Joey Votto has legitimate 25-30 home run potential, even in his rookie season.  Splitting time between Triple A and the majors in 2007, Votto slammed 27 dingers and drove in 109 runs.  Scouts expect Votto to adapt easily to the majors since he has a good eye at the plate and has hit for a high average in the minors.  Votto has additional value because, for a first basemen, he runs very well; in 2007 Votto swiped 18 bags and in ’06 he stole 24. 

 

6. Cameron Maybin:  The centerpiece of the Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera trade, Maybin is the future centerfielder for the Florida Marlins.  An immense talent, Maybin is a five-tool player who is eventually expected to hit for average, power, and steal 30+ bases a season.  But despite the hype, he may not be the best bet for 2008.  After beginning his career in A ball in 2006 and the majority of 2007, Maybin was given only 20 at-bats in double A before being promoted last season to the Detroit Tigers. Maybin struggled with the higher level of talent in the majors, and hit only .143 in 49 major league at-bats, with 21 strikeouts.  The Tigers rushed Maybin and the Marlins, learning from their example, sent Maybin down to the minors to start 2008.  With additional seasoning Maybin is likely to get a mid-season callup.  He has the talent to dominate, but is a better bet for 2009 or 2010. 

 

The rookie of the year award is one of baseball’s most coveted titles.  For even a casual fan, it is exciting to watch a relative unknown blossom into a star, and if you happen to have that player on your Roto team, all the better.  Each of the players listed above have the talent to be this year’s rookie of the year, but for our money, Upton and Votto have the best chance due to a combination of playing time and talent.