The more things change, the more they stay the same.  Clothes that were in style twenty years ago are in style again.  The now popular Old School music was once popular long before it was known as “Old School.”  ADD SMOETHING HERE!!!

 

The same is true of fantasy baseball.  Theories that were popular years ago resurface, and theories that were popular just years ago may vanish.  It’s just the things go in life.  This past week, I read a very interesting column about why fantasy owners shouldn’t take risks.  The columnist opined that taking risks could theoretically lead you to victory, but more often than not, such a strategy would not win you the league title. 

 

Let that thought simmer for a bit.

 

I don’t have any empirical data to reference, but for the sake of argument, let’s assume that the average number of fantasy baseball players in each fantasy league is about ten.  If ten is the correct number of teams, and barring any ties, only one team is going to win.  Moreover, if there are ten teams in the league, and only one wins, then that means that nine teams didn’t win the title.  OK, using basic math I learned years ago, and remembering to carry the one, and all that, then 90% of the teams are not going to win their league.  In an eight-team league, then 87.5% of the teams are not going to win, and in a twelve-team league, then 92% of the teams are not winning the league.

 

Earth to columnist, no matter what strategy a player uses, the likelihood of winning is less than the likelihood of finishing anywhere from second to last.  Nonetheless, I finished reading the column, fascinated by the support provided.  Did you know that Alex Gordon owners took a risk taking him last year, and that such risk did not pay off?  That’s another Sherlock Holmes moment.  The columnist then concluded that taking a rookie was a huge risk (another Sherlock moment), and that based upon the Gordon results, you shouldn’t overpay for a rookie.

 

OK, so is it acceptable to overpay for a veteran?  I think not.  Additionally, just because Alex Gordon disappointed doesn’t mean that every rookie is going to cost more than he earns.  Ever heard the names, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki or Hunter Pence?  Certainly, rookies disappoint more often than they exceed expectations, but that doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t take some risks.

 

Is Albert Pujols a risk?  As a top five or six pick, yes certainly Pujols is a risk, and I’d go further to say that he is an unacceptable risk?  As a seventh through twelfth pick, he is still a major risk.  However, if you can get Pujols with the thirteenth pick or later is a risk worth taking.

 

How about Evan Longoria?  Sure, he’s a risk if you overpay, but not so much if you draft him in the latter portion of the draft.  Kelvim Escobar?  He’s likely a risk no matter where you draft him.  But, what harm is it to take a guy like Escobar, Curt Schilling or even Barry Bonds late in the draft?  With most of the guys taken in the latter rounds ultimately getting cut, does it hurt to take a shot there?  Of course not.

 

You can’t do, as the columnist suggested, and take a team of only solid veterans and then expect to win your league. Unless you are playing with mental midgets, you are going to have to take some risks to succeed.  The question shouldn’t be which players are worth taking a risk, but instead, which players at this point in your draft or auction are worth taking as a risk.  It’s all about timing your risks to best suit your team.  Pujols with the first pick in the draft is foolish; Pujols with the 14^th pick is a smart play.

 

Here are ten players you might wish to consider, reconsider or cross of your list entirely.  Caveat, all carry some major inherent risk.  I have included their average draft position, based upon twenty-four drafts over the past seven days, courtesy of mockdraftcentral.com:

 

Albert Pujols (14^th player chosen on average).  The elbow is an issue, but he has top five talent, if not more.  Just think back twelve months;

 

Manny Ramirez (36).  Age and injuries are catching up, but Manny was a top twenty player for the past decade;

 

Rickie Weeks (81).  Lots of potential, but always banged up.  One day, Weeks will put it all together.  If he does it this year, and you get him at 81, you’ve done quite well.  More likely than not, though, he’s not going to outperform his draft position;

 

Jason Bay (99).  A first rounder two years running, Bay is better than the 99^th pick in the draft.  Of course, he wasn’t among the top 199 performers last year.  Which Bay do you get?  Therein lies the risk, but a reward of a top twenty player is quite possible from the 99^th pick. 

 

Andruw Jones (116).  See Bay, Jason, above.  Jones wasn’t a first round pick, but he was always among the top fifty.  One bad season and a move to Chavez Ravine, and Jones is falling fast.  Or is he?

 

Hank Blalock (148).  Almost complete season ending injuries have a way of dropping a player’s value for the next year.  Blalock, if healthy, could easily outperform half of the thirteen third basemen drafted ahead of him.

 

John Lackey (154).  After his injury was announced, Lackey’s stock fell fast than Enron.  Indeed, Ted Lilly has a higher ADP than Lackey.  Lackey is a proven performer who will likely miss four starts.  A pitcher of this caliber, even for only 80% of the season is a worthy risk at 150+.

 

Rich Harden (170).  Yes, it sounds like I am jumping on the Harden-bandwagon now that he was impressive in Japan.  Of course, I drafted Harden in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship main event with the 197^th pick, and I thought that was a steal.  Everyday that passes, Harden’s ADP is going to drop.  He’s a huge injury risk, but an unbelievable talent if he can only stay healthy.  This is another risk, at 180 or later, well worth taking.  At 160 or later, it’s a risk.  Earlier than that and you might be overpaying considering the reasonably expected injury on the horizon.

 

Kelvim Escobar (227).  He’s a bad bet at 27, 227 and 427.  Not worth the risk, period.

 

Johnny Cueto (241). The darling-boy of the insider crowd. Cueto’s stock had been rising for weeks (from 352 to 241 in the past week).  Then again, he’s a rookie pitcher in Cincinnati.  There’s not much worse a combination.  Cueto’s got the talent, and will likely get the opportunity, but if you draft Cueto now, you are likely going to have to overpay.

 

Best of luck.

 

Buster