Today I attended the 2008 Tout Wars Mixed League auction.  Although I was not there as a participant, the experience was a fantastic one, and it was a privilege to work the computer and to database the auction.  The biggest thrill was meeting the people behind so much brilliant writing and web-work in-person, including Lawr Michaels, J.P. Kastner, Brian Walton, Ron Shandler, Jeff Erickson, and other representatives from sites far and wide. 

 Superimposed upon the backdrop of early spring on Manhattan Island, the Tout Wars crew of experts were filmed for Fantasyland: The Movie, a documentary based on Sam Walker’s highly-acclaimed book of the same name.  Lawr is reflective in pointing out that the basis for the movie, Fantasyland the book, was a byproduct of the existence of Tout itself, and that the Tout leagues were really the brain child of Ron Shandler.

For roto-staples like Shandler, Michaels, Kastner, and Erickson, the movie was a hiccough in the finely-tuned and highly organized conference-room-style auction of old.  I can only assume that all were happy to have the distinction of mention in Walker’s acclaimed Fantasyland, but no inflated egos were apparent as the recognized experts  prepared for the proceedings in business-like manner.  The war that officially began on a cold Saturday in New York is not for money, but for honor in Tout.

 Most fantasy GM’s had custom spreadsheets, magazines, and other miscellaneous papers handy as draft-aids.  But despite this evident preparation and the experts behind it, there were  as many overbids as bargains, as many wise picks as flops.  My job was to catalogue every auction pick in the mixed league draft.  My preliminary analysis follows:

1. Shechter (TheSandlotShrink) – Considering the backstops he recruited, Shechter overspent on catching, but he made some very nice bargains at middle infield, outfield. And he nabbed “Big Papi” for a mere 29 dollars in what promises to be a potentially tremendous 2008 season. Considering J.J. Putz fetched 27 dollars, getting Nathan and Saito for 18 was relative bargain-shopping.  Aces Beckett and Webb anchor a rotation loaded with bargain basement picks.  All in all – nice effort for Shechter.

2. Regan (Rotowire) – Overpaid for both B.J. Upton and Russell Martin but got bargains with Travis Hafner, Miguel Tejada, and netted three aces all under twenty dollars each.  The good far overshadowed the bad and Reagen ended up with some real values by auction’s end.

3. Roberts (ESPN) – Enamored with power, Roberts went after Ryan Howard and Miggy Cabrera with rabid desire, and scored both in the early going.  With a pitching staff headed by Cole Hamels, Roberts scored big with some excellent late round values.  Examples of the more noteworthy values include Pedroia for $3, Youkilis for $6, Bay for $8, Pierre for $9 (Michael Bourn went for $15), and Trevor Hoffman for $10 (arguably the most undervalued marquis closer).

4. Hoyos (RotoJunkie) – From the moment the mixed auction began, Hoyos had one obvious strategy – to nominate and snag one closer after the other.  He also invested big in an outfield that can be expected to carry his team – including noteworthies such as Alfonso Soriano at $32, Curtis Granderson at $27 (overvalued at a dollar more than Carlos Beltran), Grady Sizemore at $34, and Nick Markakis at $24.  Overall, Hoyos had a solid auction, but we wonder if the combination of Zaun and Iannetta at backstop and risky starting pitching (Lowe, Pedro, Escobar, and Penny) will match up well against the opposition.

5. Cushing (MLB) – Shoring up his infield early with Ryan Braun at third and Jimmy Rollins at short, Cushing distributed the remainder of his spending fairly evenly. Some of the riskier selections were Matt Kemp for $15, Shane Victorino at $20, and Joakim Soria at $14, but Cushing may have gotten an unbelievable value at $8 for John Lackey due to a spring training arm injury. Eric Gagne, George Sherrill, and BJ Ryan (whose health may make this buy seem either a steal or a waste in hindsight) were all scored for under $15 combined.  The jury is out on whether Kemp, Victorino, or Soria will live up to their pricey billing, but overall it was a solid auction for Cushing.

6. Petera (Baseball HQ) – Undeterred by price, Paul went right after David Wright and Carlos Lee with knowing confidence.  Petera may have overpaid on Michael Bourn at $15, Eric Byrnes at $22,  and Victor Martinez at $24, but he got incredible values on Brett Myers ($7), Aaron Rowand ($5), Jermaine Dye ($8), multi-positional Ty Wigginton ($4), and Jeremy Bonderman ($5).

7. J.P. Kastner (CreativeSports) – Building around an offensive  nucleus of Mark Teixeira (contract year, cough cough), Kastner stashed quiet speed in the outfield and second base and nabbed some players with significant upside such as Delmon Young at $16, Corey Hart at $24, and Willy Tavares at $9.  In fact, at first glance,  J.P.’s team might be mistaken for a keeper league team.  With a solid balance of speed, power, and pitching, Kastner’s team should hang in there, but batting average could become an issue if Tavares returns to terrestrial levels in 2008.  All in all, a good showing during the auction should provide J.P. with the necessary weapons to compete throughout.

8. Funston (Yahoo!) – Taunted throughout for nabbing Saltalamacchia for $7, Funston had his share of values, as well.  He scored potential steals on Francisco Liriano (if healthy) for $6, Adam Dunn at $13, Cano at $17, and Hideki Matsui at $11.  I question whether $15 for perennial bridesmaid Josh Hamilton was an overbid, and whether Hanley Ramirez coming off of shoulder surgery in a lineup without Miggy was overvalued at $39, but Funston got the steal of the auction with Chipper Jones at $15 to shore up third base. 

9. Ma (Protrade) – Enamored with risk/upside catching, Ma nailed down Towles and Soto at catcher, and may well have gotten the steal of the auction with Albert Pujols at $26.  Among Ma’s better big-name values were Carlos Beltran at $26 and Brandon Phillips at $29 (B.J. Upton went for 29 also and Utley for $39). Much of Ma’s power and average rests on the health of Pujols, so time will tell whether the big risk, big reward approach results in league victory.

10. Salfino (Salfino) – The antithesis to Ma’s approach with regard to catching was Salfino’s – get big bats behind the plate and maximize their VORP (Value Over Replacement Player).  With McCann and Mauer behind the plate, Salfino spent a whopping $44 (auction high for any player) on Jose Reyes at short and $40 for Johan Santana.  If Salfino is not a Met fan, then he certainly did his best job of persuading the table that he is a true believer entering 2008.  While the unpredictable Rick Ankiel and Fukudome headed up the more risky picks, they were values at under $5 each, and Salfino nailed down genuine values in Carlos Pena ($16), Johnny Damon ($6), Dan Uggla ($8), and Luke Scott ($1).

11. Zola (FantasyBaseball.com) – One-buck catching options Paul LoDuca and Kurt Suzuki led the pack of values for the Z.  Zola did one thing that few other fantasy GM’s did, he went after batting average with rabid intensity.  Scoring both Ichiro and Holliday, it is hard to imagine Zola not winning average from the early going (even with Rickie Weeks acting as in-roster saboteur). I question whether Joba Chamberlain was overvalued at $8 given his potential to remain in the ‘pen and post Jonathan Broxton type numbers in this mixed league format. To Z’s credit, Halladay, Smoltz, and Young may all have been steals at under $20 each, and few teams have the power/speed combinations nor depth at second base than Zola does (I smell a trade looming on the horizon for a closer?).

Over or Undervalued?

Player Name	Actual Value	Predicted Value	Over/Underbid
B.J. Upton	29	17	+12
Michael Bourn	15	7	+8
Jose Reyes	44	30	+14
Jorge Posada	18	12	+6
Victor Martinez	24	20	+4
Clay Buchholz	2	8	-6
Mark Teixeira	33	25	+8
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	7	3	+4
Miguel Tejada	12	15	-3
Chase Utley	39	27	+12
Albert Pujols	26	32	-6
Juan Pierre	9	15	-6
Brad Lidge	5	11	-6
John Lackey	8	17	-9

      Potential Steals of the Reserve Draft

Player Name	Round Taken	Commentary
Jim Thome	1	Can't understand how lesser players were taken in the auction but the likes of Thome survived 'til the Reserve picks.
Chris Duncan	1	See previous comment - big power in limited AB's
Corey Patterson	2	Power, speed, so he can't hit for much average - but in the bandbox of Cinci, and on a one year low-budget deal, whose money isn't on a comeback? And as a reserve?
Jack Cust	2	Few thought he could do it outside of Coors. Cust proved them wrong. So what if he was in the Mitchell Report, the A's aren't deep enough not to play his bat. Nice reserve 30+ HR potential.
Edinson Volquez	2	Pedrito. Big K's potential, power pitcher moves to the NL. Another Aaron Harang in the making? Wildness could do him in but as a res. pick - superb.
Bill Hall	1	When the Longorias are taken in the draft and the Bill Halls are pushed into the reserves, something's wrong. Nice pickup.
Ervin Santana	3	Underachiever and pround of it. Wil lthis be Ervin's year to put it all together? As a reserve, either way good risk!
Randy Winn	2	Good balance of speed and power, kind of like a healthier Shannon Stewart of old. Nice reserve pick that can only help and can't hurt you.

Dollar Store

Player Name	"Retail Value" ($)	Actual Price ($)
Tad Iguchi	6	1
Julio Lugo	9	1
Mike Cameron	8	1
JD Drew	6	1
Lyle Overbay	5	1
Austin Kearns	10	1
Ronnie Paulino	6	1
Adam LaRoche	7	1
Luke Scott	7	1
Nate McLouth	8	1
Greg Maddux	6	1

     Two-Buck "Chuck"

Player Name	"Retail Value" ($)
Clay Buchholz	8
Hank Blalock	5
Pedro Feliz	4
Adam Jones	4
Casey Kotchman	7
Kerry Wood	7
Tom Gorzelanny	5
Ryan Theriot	8
Stephen Drew	6
Carlos Delgado	9
Jerry Owens	4

Overall, the auction went well for everyone.  Of course, like any competition there will inevitably be winners and losers, but few teams were exempt of overbids and every team had its bargain values and strong core.  The 2008 season promises to be an interesting one, both for baseball (coming off of an off-season laden with controversy regarding the Mitchell Report) and for Tout Wars, which may finally be getting the attention it deserves in Fantasyland: The Movie.  Tune in for more coverage throughout the season..