It happens to all of us. Come on, admit it.  A marginal player is just that, a marginal player.  That is, until you draft him.  Once he is on your team, he is no longer a marginal player, but instead, he’s a guy with a) great potential; b) solid numbers, and/or 3) incredible talent just needing a chance to play.

 

There’s nothing really wrong with this thinking, until it clouds your judgment. There’s usually a very good reason why a player was available in the 25^th round of a fifteen team league.  Yes, you know it, so say it with me, “He’s really not that good.”  Why else would he be passed over 350+ times, including twenty-four times by you?

 

I bring this up not to criticize (I drafted Mike Mussina, Michael Barrett, Mark DeRosa, Pat Neshek, Juan Rivera and Joey Devine in the 25^th through 30^th round in the NFBC last week), but instead to challenge.  The first week of the waiver wire is often the most important week.  Many players that went undrafted have now earned major league jobs.  Some players who were drafted have been demoted, injured, or are already in the manager’s doghouse. 

 

Right now, you are probably in love with your last few picks. Personally, I think Mussina is going to have a great year, and that 2007 was an anomaly.  Barrett is a career .280 hitter with moderate power, and he will revert back to form, so disregard 2007 (noticing a trend here?).  DeRosa has put together back to back solid years, and he is an everyday player, a steal in the 27^th round.  Neshek is an all-star caliber set up man, who has nasty stuff, and could be the closer if Joe Nathan gets hurt or dealt.  Juan Rivera is a solid major leaguer, waiting only for an injury from the cast of often-injured Angels including Vlad Guerrero, Gary Matthews and Garrett Anderson.  Finally, Joey Devine could close for the A’s one day.

 

Earth to Buster.  Past history indicates that more than 80% of the guys drafted in the 25^th round or later are going to be cut from their fantasy squad before the end of the year.  So, unless I am unbelievably spectacular in picking winners from the losers available in the last six rounds, on the average five of the guys listed will be cut before season’s end.  Worse yet, most will spend the significant portion of the season on the bench, and then will be cut, meaning that each will likely do little more than take up space.

 

Last year, I tried a slightly different tactic.  I drafted injured players who, when healthy, were going to make a big impact on my team come the all-star break.  I drafted, among others, Juan Rivera and Nick Johnson.  Neither helped, and both ended up just taking up valuable space.  Worse yet, as each week came and went, I was more attached to these two stiffs, figuring that if I had held out this long, what’s another week?  Another week became another week, then another week, and pretty soon, I had wasted to roster spots with zero production.  Note to Curt Schilling, Jason Schmidt and Chad Tracy owners, that strategy doesn’t work. 

 

If there ever was a time to be aggressive with your free agent budget, now is that time.  Don’t be afraid to commit to spending your Free Agent Acquisition Bucks or high waiver status on a player that recently earned a job, more playing time, or looks like will be a contributor in the near future.  Remember, there’s nothing wrong with cutting a player you drafted.