Minor-ity Report> Expert League Draft Diary: Part II

Following coverage of rounds one through ten of our Expert League H2H draft, we will now walk readers through picks eleven through twenty, focusing on our strategy and thought process. 

As a recap, we took the following players (in order) during the first ten rounds:

1. Jimmy Rollins
2. Carlos Lee
3. Garrett Atkins
4. Alfonso Soriano
5. Aaron Harang
6. Ian Kinsler
7. Todd Helton
8. Brian McCann
9. Brad Penny
10. Jeff Francis

The next ten rounds were punctuated by a desire to balance our roster and shore up both starting pitching, relief, and complete our offensive roster with picks that had some upside metered by risk.

Like other drafting fantasy baseball GM’s, we electively shirked closers during the first ten rounds.  In a points-based league of such extended format, closers simply do not hold the same value as other active roster occupants.  Even knowing this, we wanted to ensure that our mixed leagues closers were not limited to Bob Howry and Matt Lindstrom.   JJ Putz, Paplebon, and KRod were taken in the 7th round.  By the 11th round, Joe Nathan, Billy Wagner, and Bobby Jenks were all off the board.  In other words, top tier closers were disappearing faster than Roger Clemens’ credibility.  Available worthwhile closers included Mariano Rivera, Takashi Saito, Francisco Cordero, and Rafael Soriano.  We chose Rivera.  In this format, Rivera’s combination of control, save opportunities, and historical dominance made him more appealing than riskier options like Cordero or Soriano.  Saito was a strong consideration, but lacks the consistency of Rivera, and is in a one year deal and could be dealt if the Dodgers fall out of contention.  

As picks were made in the 12th round, we realized there were few appealing options still available within the realm of starting pitching.  Literally, in the days that followed the Rivera pick, eight additional starting pitchers were drafted.  Derek Lowe was our highest ranked starting pitcher still up for grabs.  Often undervalued by many, we have long-appreciated Lowe’s consistency since moving to LA, his ability to repeatedly notch respectable win totals, and loved the idea of snatching him up in a contract year.  So, Derek Lowe joined the team.

The cliché “no risk, no reward,” began to ring in our ears.  With the 113th pick in the 10th round, Joba Chamberlain had been snagged by Team Fantasyland, and we have long felt (and written, at length) that his alter-ego in New England would have a better 2008.  Having notched Rivera, and nailed down a rotation of top flight NL arms, we felt it was time to diversify and bear some risk – so we nabbed Clay Buchholz.  A candidate and potential favorite for AL Rookie of the Year honors, we felt that Buchholz would provide some quality innings, even if limited by Boston brass, and do so on a winning team. 

After the Buchholz pick in the 13th round, it felt like eons before we were back on the clock.  Seeing it was our turn to draft, and appraising the remaining talent, we saw a sea of mediocrity.  Smart risk picks like Sheffield, Matt Kemp, and JJ Hardy were peppered throughout the 18 or so selections that preceded our own.  With the makings of a solid outfield already, we decided to seal the remaining outfield spot with Juan Pierre.  Conventional wisdom instructed us to wait and snatch up a value later on, but with regard to OFV (Overall Fantasy Value) in a points-based H2H format, Pierre was simply too appealing not to take.  Bringing to the table 488 points during the ’07 season, we felt Pierre was (forgive the pun) a steal in such a format, and had fallen well below expected levels.

For a few rounds, we had pondered a gamble on Randy Johnson.  It had seemed too early to take him before the 15th round.  But, after taking Pierre in the 14th round, it was Johnson time.  Delmon Young, Barry Zito, and Chad Cordero were taken in three of the four picks before ours, and it seemed like a wise gamble.  If Randy Johnson went down for the year, we would still have the likes of Harang, Buchholz, Lowe, Penny, and Francis.  If he stayed healthy, however, the reward could be substantial.

Between the 15th and 16th rounds, gamble picks abounded.  Hank Blalock, Zack Greinke, and Moises Alou highlighted the riskier picks of the bunch, and after taking Johnson, we felt it was time to fill out our final active offensive roster spot. Adrian Beltre had earned an asterisk beside his name for hitting poorly against the best pitchers around, according to Bill James.  Whether due to the foreboding asterisk, or due to the general aversion to Seattle cornermen, Beltre was staring back at us wondering, “why not?”  Adrian had improved in the past three seasons after a statistically jarring move to the American League in 2005 stunted his rise to superstardom.  With 26 homers and 99 RBI in 2007, he seemed to us a lock to improve in ’08 at a mere 28 years of age. So, Beltre was ours in the 16th round.

With only a few picks until the 17th round, and having taken only Mariano Rivera to pitch the ninth, we decided it was time to snatch up our second closer.  Kevin Gregg, Matt Capps, and Carlos Marmol were all available, and we were not enthusiastic about gambling on Marmol.  Long-time Cub Kerry Wood had performed admirably in a cup ‘o coffee as a reliever during 2007. Bobby Howry had the experience at closing out games, and then there was Carlos Marmol, whose last bastion of hope for a major league job appeared to be in the ‘pen.  Marmol pitched incredibly well during ’07, but had none of the glitz of Wood or experience of Howry.  So, Marmol was too big a risk in a mixed league format.  Kevin Gregg would be afforded few save opportunities on an ever-rebuilding Florida ball club, and have the likes of Tankersley, Lindstrom, and Miller scratching at his heels.  Again, by process of elimination, Matt Capps was our man.  He had notched 18 saves in 2007 with a superb ERA and WHIP, and even without the pedigree of some better-known stoppers, we felt he was capable of 30 saves and a sub-3.00 ERA.  Matt Capps was joining the team to fill out our active roster.

With our active roster complete, we took additional risks for our bench.  We decided to focus mostly on pitching, since it would allow us to take advantage of two-start pitchers in the H2H format.  Therefore, for our bench we drafted: Ervin Santana, Todd Jones, Mike Mussina, Bartolo Colon and Luke Scott.  Santana and Mussina, we reasoned, both play on winning teams and could be poised for comeback years.  Santana, in particular, is intriguing if he ever figures out how to pitch on the road (3.27 home ERA, 8.38 away ERA).  Mussina, on the other hand, seems like his days as a major leaguer are numbered.  Nonetheless, Mussina is only one year removed from a 15 win, 3.51, 1.11 season, so a flier on him made sense. Likewise, Colon, a former Cy-Young award winner, provides insurance in the event he beats out Buchholz for the final spot in the Red Sox rotation.  Jones was insurance at the closer position, and should have plenty of save opportunities playing for the Tigers.   Finally, we wanted at least one position player to backup our positional players in case of injury.  Scott has displayed outstanding power in limited playing time.  Now that he has a full time job in the hitter-friendly confines of Camden Yards, he could have a breakout season. 

That left us with a final roster of:

1. Juan Pierre, CF
2. Jimmy Rollins, SS
3. Garrett Atkins, 3B
4. Carlos Lee, RF
5. Alfonso Soriano, LF
6. Adrian Beltre, 3B
7. Todd Helton, 1B
8. Brian McCann, C
9. Ian Kinsler, 2B

Starting Rotation:
Aaaron Harang
Brad Penny
Jeff Francis
Derek Lowe
Randy Johnson

Pen:
Mariano Rivera
Matt Capps

Bench:
Luke Scott
Clay Buccholz
Ervin Santana
Todd Jones
Mike Mussina
Bartolo Colon

At the end of the day, we were pleased with our team.  We have players that have typically performed well in a points league.  In addition, we have a rotation that should provide consistent, solid performance, even if lacking in star power.  Our bench is exactly as we had planned, replete with potentially strong pitching options available for in-season use.  Finally, we have several players who could have tremendous upside this season, such as Buchholz, Beltre, Atkins, Soriano, Kinsler, Johnson, and McCann.