Somehow writing about baseball on St. Paddy's Day conjures thoughts of the old Oakland A's when then owner Charles O. Finley thought having green and gold balls was the wave of the future.
It may have been a wave, but more than likely, it was one of goodbye, and, well, with just a couple of weeks before we hit the season proper, hello is a much more appropriate salutataion.
And, well, with with a couple of weeks of games under our collectivve belts we have a couple of weeks of conjecture to try and reconcile with drafts that essentially right upon us.
Since this was indeed the NFBC weekend, and like it or not, that event is the premiere venue for fantasy players, "expert" (I personally shudder at the word) or not, I want to take a look at the pre-season totals thus far and see how that translates into how the drafts and auctions I witnessed in Las Vegas.
The main impact I saw was how far up the prospects jumped on the people's draft lists, as opposed to the vets.
For example, Steve Pearce, the Pittsburgh first base/outfield prospect (he qualifies in the outfield, but his NFBC sticker insisted first base was his primary position) went on every draft board I saw. Pearce is hitting .265-4-10, and is among the spring home run leaders, but, he also has only 68 games under his belt. True, Pittsburgh is wide open territory for an up-and-comer.
Still, I don't see Pearce getting the attention, and Mike Morse not. Morse, with his insane .559-2-10, was not selected on a single NFBC team that I saw, nor did I hear his name even mentioned. Still just 26, Morse hit .500 over 14 at-bats last year for the M's, and the year before went .372-0-11 over 34. It was the year earlier he was supposed to be the wunderkind, when he got .278-3-23 over 230 at-bats. Those are not bad numbers. Better than Pearce's track record, anyway since Pearce is pretty much in the position Morse was three years ago.
At one of the auctions facilitated by Jason Grey and me, these three first basemen went in this order during a run, at the identified values: Joey Votto ($10), Casey Kotchman ($1), and Conor Jackson ($6)? Huh? What did Kotchman do last year to give him less value than a guy with no track record (Votto is apparently ten times more valuable) and six time less than Jackson?
Why do Phillip Hughes or Joe Saunders go higher than Barry Zito or Mark Beuhrle? They did on all the draft boards I saw, and Saunders went for $2, to Zito's $1 in a league. And, ok, Zito is not the lights out he was, but if there is a pitcher who has a chance to become the next Jamie Moyer, it is Z. And, I want him when he does, so for $2 it is not a make or beak thing. Get him cheap.
Then, there were just a bunch of names on the draft board that I felt were inflated/deflated, so we are going to look at them and call them Over and Under.
Curtis Granderson. Coming off a monster year, for sure, but is he really just a few picks behind Grady Sizemore and Carl Crawford? If he can repeat last year that would be great, but the implication is he will improve upon it, and I don't see that. Over.
Kevin Correia. OK, the Giants suck, but not so much their pitching. Correia has at least as much to offer as Zito, Saunders, Hughes, and even Jon Garland. Not once did I see him before the 20th round. Under.
Same with Brandon Phillips, and I have Brandon in the XFL, after picking him up for nothing a few years back and reaping cheap benefits from his skills. But, like Granderson, is Phillips is a second round pick, right below Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins? I want to think so, but I am just not there yet. Adam Dunn is a lot more consistent, and he was at best a fourth round pick. Over.
Again, Phillip Hughes generall sixth round or above, while Scott Baker below the 18th round on every occasion? Baker, just establishing himself, while Hughes is yet to do so, and not overpowering as Baker can be? Under.
Then there is fave Jacoby Ellsbury, who surely did have a solid 116 at-bat last year, and a great post-season, who was not selected below the eighth round, while in general, Coco Crisp was not selected at all. Not that Crisp should be higher than Ellsbury;but, rather Crisp should be higher, and Ellsbury lower. Over for Ellsbury, and Under for Crisp.
Finally, BJ Upton was also a second round pick, and he had a great year, no question. And, though I think that is a bit high, let us take it at face value. Why then was Delmon Young, who went .288-13-93, to Upton's .300-24-82 season? True, Upton had 170 less at-bats, but is Upton that much better? Or, conversely, Young five rounds worse? Upton is ok, but Young is way Under.