Last fall, as a bunch of us were talking at Ron Shandler's AFL First Pitch, Todd Zola and I both remarked that it was a tough year to find pans, or sliders because so few players in 2007 seemed to exceed expectation.
And, well, that is what you look for. That is, guys like Storm Davis winning 19 games with terrible peripheral numbers, or Jamey Carroll hitting .300 when nothing before or since indicated such bat skill.
Still, there are the guys out there, although often in picking sliders it is as important to remember that a slide does not mean the end of a career or that the guy is awful. It is more of a caution not to overpay based upon unrealistic expectations that a career year will be repeated (see Brady Anderson).
Still, the guys are out there that you want to watch with respect to budget, or draft round.
Joe Borowski (P, Indians): Borowski probably tops the list of "watch outs" simply because of his terrible totals despite his league leading 45 saves. Borowski threw 65.6 innings, and allowed 77 hits, while striking out just 58. His walk total of 17 was acceptable, but, that still logged a WHIP of 1.43 and, well, closers that turn in totals like that are doomed to fail. As in Shawn Chacon.
Jorge Posada (C, Yankees): Wow, those .338-20-90 totals of last year were off the chart for a backstop not named Bench or Piazza in just about any season. But, Jorge is now 37 years old, and catching is a tough gig, and expecting anything more than .280-15-75 is silly. He could do better than that, but, if you pay for last year's totals, your team will fail. On the other hand, if you pay for this year's projection in the previous sentences, you could do just fine. Let someone else overspend, however, is the rule of thumb.
Chipper Jones (3B, Braves): Pretty much the same story as with Posada. No question what a good and solid player Jones has been, but, well, last year was the first time since 2003 that Chipper even managed 500 at-bats. Again, Chipper is a fine pick or auction value, but, bet on 425 at-bats, and .300-20-85 totals, not .330-27-115 ones. There is a difference.
Jacoby Ellsbury (OF, Red Sox): At High-A in 2006 Ellsbury went .256-5-34 over 442 at-bats, and last year, before his call-up, he was .239-1-28 over 359 Pawtuckett at-bats. So, do you want to trust those numbers as a barometer, or the .353-3-18 totals over just 116 Boston plate appearances. And, before you answer too quickly, does the name Clint Barmes mean anything to you?
Dmitri Young (1B, Nationals): With Nick Johnson back at first, the next question is where Young, a butcher with the glove, will play? OK, so, the Nats will try him in the outfield, and let's pretend he stays healthy. In 2005 Young was .271-21-72 over 469 at-bats, a pretty good total, and in 2006 he was hurt, but went .250-7-23 over 172 at-bats. Both those totals point to Young's normal production rate, meaning the .320-23-74 over 460 at-bats last year was the anomoly.
Brian Bannister (P, Royals): On a bad team, that might be improving, but not enough in 2008 to merit spending more than a buck or two in the deepest of leagues on Bannister. True his 2007 was quite impressive, but, in 2006, at AAA, he could manage only a 5.61 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over 29 innings. This year there will be a book on him, and those 2007 numbers will be a thing of the past.
Carlos Pena (1B, Devil Rays): In these very virtual pages last year we noted that Pena was going to have a big year one of these years, the question was when? Well, that answer was now, and, a smart guy and solid talent, Pena should settle in as a solid first baseman for a number of years. The power will be there, but, numbers around .280-34-100 are a lot more realistic than. He is a very good on-base player with a lot of strikeouts to go with.
Aaron Rowand (OF, Giants): Hardly the answer to Barry Bonds, Rowand is almost as brittle, although he is also almost 13 years younger. But, a lot of Rowand's power came from hitting in Philly, a good hitter's park. He will not find ATT quite so forgiving, nor will he find his lineup nearly as supportive. That means numbers that will drop.
Moises Alou (OF, Mets): He is hurt going into the season, and the last time Alou managed over 400 at-bats was in 2005. Truly, he does put up good numbers, but, he is 42 and if he gets 300 at-bats this year, that will be a big deal. They will be good at-bats, too, but well, you win by having guys who get 500 at-bats, no matter what the cost.
That is it for this time. Next week we can take a look at the NFBC auctions, as I will be in Las Vegas for that event.