This was our first expert H2H league, and first league of dizzying extended statistical format (i.e. everything counts – HR and RBI’s sure, but also 1B, 2B, 3B, K’s, BB, etc.) We were naturally wary about approaching such a league cavalierly, and decided that from the first moment of draft prep, thinking outside the box would be necessary to seriously compete. Instead of our more-accustomed roto or 5x5 format, player appraisals would be more holistic. Alfonso Soriano would be assigned a lower technical value than the likes of Nick Markakis or Lance Berkman. Players like Todd Helton would see a resurgence in their worth. Though our preparation was decidedly brief considering the stiffness of the competition, we knew early on that abandoning all traditional thought would be step one.
We settled on a strategy emphasizing hitters over pitchers in the early rounds of the draft, with the intention of picking up several solid pitchers in the middle rounds. The hitters in this format contributed significantly more points in both ’06 and ’07 than did their pitcher counterparts, so we thought it made sense to load up on the batters in a points-based system. In addition, we also employed the concept of value-over-replacement-player (VORP) at positions like catcher, second base, starting pitching, and our closers. Finally, we wanted to stack our bench with viable starting pitching options so as to maximize two start pitchers, as well as to try to take intelligent risks, where possible. On all levels, mission accomplished.
Shortly before the draft began we were notified that we had the third overall pick. The first two picks of the draft were ARod and David Wright. We admit some surprise about Wright as a second overall pick, but as lifelong Met fans, were sort of proud of Wright, who has inarguably become the nucleus of a Met team sorely wanton for leadership. Didn’t hurt that he was 30/30 last season, either. Having the third overall pick, our choice was a tough one. There was Albert Pujols, who conventional wisdom placed as a second overall pick, if not for his troublesome elbow and surrounding cast of probable losers in St. Louis. Then there was Hanley Ramirez, who lit up major league pitching in his sophomore effort in ’07, following a dazzling and award-winning rookie effort the previous season. Also available was Jose Reyes, who in spite of a second half implosion, still posted ridiculous numbers for a shortstop of his age. According to “Overall Fantasy Value” (OFV), the logical pick was Jimmy Rollins. But, not based upon his MVP caliber 2007 numbers alone. Rather, Rollins’ value was based upon a composite of predictions made by our own algorithms, Ron Shandler, and other friends’ sites. We realized that Rollins is unlikely to surmount 30 homers and 41 steals, or the .296 average he exploded for in 2007, but we felt he was likely to approach each again on the same team with a slightly improved lineup. Plus, with extra-base hits like triples counting as a category, Rollins could be a real boon.
Rollins’ OFV was estimated to range between 580-660. That placed him firmly in the first round, and then it was a war of attrition among his chief competitors. Pujols was complaining almost incessantly of an inability to straighten his ailing arm, and cautioning media that he would shut it down early if bothered enough, or if the Cards fell out of contention. Subtract Pujols. Hanley was going to be without friend and lineup protection Miguel Cabrera in 2008 and would be playing with a surgically repaired shoulder. Subtract Hanley – too many questions (was he the Hanley of 2006 or 2007?). Jose Reyes’ second half disappearing act was scary. Scary enough that he became a gamble and, even during his historic 2006 effort, his OFV was about 602 points – within the range we expected Rollins, anyhow. What about Matt Holliday? At a chunky 608 points, Holliday was a consideration also, but we felt that taking an outfielder, even one the caliber of Matt Holliday, in a mixed league format where such positional depth exists, would be shooting ourselves in the foot to start. So, the selection of Jimmy Rollins was discomfiting on some levels, but made easier by the question marks dogging his competition.
From the first pick the draft flowed like molasses in the winter. With four hours to make each selection, fantasy GM’s felt no compulsion to rush their decision-making. Already shaking off the rust by round two, we quickly selected outfielder Carlos Lee. By then a bevy of talented batters and pitchers were already off the market. The choice of Lee was an easy one and took about 45 seconds according to the draft clock. Although aware of the depth in OF, the alternatives were Beltran, Ichiro, Phillips, and Garrett Atkins. We felt that although big years could be expected from each of the alternative players, Lee would benefit from the addition of the ever-controversial Miguel Tejada to the lineup and a full season behind Hunter Pence. Ichiro was another year older, Beltran was coming off knee surgeries, Phillips still seems constitutionally incapable of drawing walks at a modest rate (and with Dusty Baker as the new skipper we expected more aggression at the plate and less patience), and Atkins we ended up snatching up quickly in round three.
Atkins was a difficult pick also because Ichiro was still unselected and the VORP of a Victor Martinez or Russell Martin at backstop was undeniable. The more we contemplated the more we felt that Atkins had a higher ceiling at age 28 than some of the alternatives, and that McCann, Johjima, and Salty would be around as Martinez or Martin-lites in later rounds. Atkins’ 67:96 BB:K ratio and offensive totals resulted in a total value of 466 fantasy points, a big decline from 590 the year before. But, we felt Atkins might rebound to split the proverbial difference between the two years, and any remote return to 2006 numbers would make him a real steal in the third round. His ability to do so would rest less on an increase in power and more in his selectivity at the plate and doubles totals (two items we felt were feasible given his blistering second half during ’07).
We didn’t pick again for days after taking Atkins. When the draft snaked around back to us, our choices were Alfonso Soriano, Roy Halladay, Aaron Harang, and Adam Dunn. Even accounting for the OFV penalty incurred by striking out more than walking, Alfonso Soriano seemed like a sensible gamble. We needed a pitcher but felt that the OFV contribution of a pitcher was far below that of a big batter, and had little choice but to take Soriano. Having spent 2007 adjusting to life in the windy city, and hopefully having left ‘07’s health issues behind him, Soriano would enjoy a 2008 season with Derek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Fukudome behind him in the batting order. While we did not and do not expect Soriano to return to his contract year glory in Washington where he slugged 40 homers and swiped 40 bases, we did feel that 2007 was underselling the all-star. If Alfonso Soriano improves upon 2007 totals even slightly, he was and is the logical choice in the low fourth round.
After drafting Soriano we felt our hitting was looking solid and a shift in focus was in order…translation – time to go after some pitching. After considering Aaron Harang in the 4th round, we were excited to get him in the 5th. Harang is exactly the type of pitcher that does well in this format: lots of innings pitched, K’s, and wins, while letting up few runs or walks. We were aware of the “pitcher abuse points” he had accumulated the past few seasons, but felt he was an acceptable risk given he had endured such PAP in the past and been fairly consistent in recent history, in spite of his workload.
The next few rounds were more of the same: we targeted players who we projected to do well in 2008 in the operating statistical framework. Ian Kinsler in the 6th, Todd Helton in the 7th and Brian McCann in the 8th were all VORP players. Kinsler, a young player we expect to continue developing in ’08, could be a solid get among a relatively weak second base contingent. After all, it helps to remind yourself that in this format, Kinsler’s points project better than homerun threats like Dan Uggla (major negative points for his K’s), Jeff Kent, and Rickie Weeks. Likewise, Helton maintains his yesteryear value despite his dwindling power because he rarely whiffs, loads up on the walks, and still slams a ton of doubles. We really liked McCann as a 8th rounder because we think he can improve on his ’07 numbers and had significantly more value than the other catchers remaining, primarily due to his BB:K and age.
After eight rounds we had seven hitters, one pitcher. Our strategy was going according to plan. We were determined to avoid closers as long as we felt possible, in spite of the fact that Joe Nathan and J.J. Putz had gone before we made our 9th round selection. Since starting pitchers carry more OFV in the points-based format, we decided to snatch up Brad Penny. We realized that he was unlikely to go 16-4 again, but felt that his age and the cast of the new-look Dodgers behind him made him the logical choice. Then the draft snaked around back to us in the coming days and it was our pick in the 10th round. The middle rounds are often where mistakes are made and we were intent on avoiding that pitfall.
The choice was between Jeff Francis, Adam Wainwright, Oliver Perez, Ian Snell, and Jered Weaver. We felt that Wainwright would be given too seldom an opportunity to win and would realize a net defensive loss behind him, in spite of the addition of Cesar Izturis at short. Oliver Perez has long been considered a super-talent, but his statistical seesawing, even in a contract year, would wear on our patience. Ian Snell put together a miraculous 2007 campaign despite acting as ace on a last-place team, but we weren’t sold on Snell in this format since losses are too numerically damaging. Again, by process of subtraction, Francis was our choice. Playing in Coors Field is daunting, but Jeff Francis has shown signs of maturity and has made adjustments each year in the bigs. The power lefty should have another shot at 17 wins with an offense led by the young, new-look Rocks.
That will wrap up our coverage of the first ten rounds of the H2H FLEX expert draft. We can already hear the faint yet kinetic drum-roll signaling the start the 2008 season and are all anticipation. Our next installment will explore the following half of the draft. Stay tuned… and happy drafting or auctioning!